In case you needed more proof that pachter is an idiot... [Archive]

frosty

10-16-2009, 08:25 AM

"Over at IndustryGamers, everyone's favorite video game predicterer (we're still working on that one) Michael Pachter has taken the reigns of the site and offers his own extensive diatribe on the future of Sony and Microsoft's upcoming new tech: Project Natal and the PlayStation Motion Controller (rumored to be called Sphere). Pachter's assertion is that price will be Natal's biggest selling point and Microsoft will try to expand upon its market of established Xbox 360 owners by offering the device for $50. For Sony's doodad, Pachter says the company is "trying to create an answer to the success of the Wii."

Pachter even likens the future state of a Natal-enabled Xbox 360 to the current state of the iPhone -- with features like Twitter, Netflix, Last.fm and Facebook inside Microsoft's box and its intuitive inteface, he says casual or non-playing members of Xbox 360 households will become interested. And then when it's bundled with all new Xbox 360s, he says that'll expand Microsoft's reach even more.

The PlayStation Motion Controller has a steeper hill to climb up to release, as Pachter notes his belief that more hardware will cause Sony to demand more cash for the set-up. He predicts the price will be over $100, though stresses that both Microsoft and Sony need to keep "the consumer's cost relatively low in order to achieve broad penetration." We'd tell you to get your mind out of the gutter, but we know it's already in one -- pervert."

OK, let me get this straight.

A system with 2 cameras and a microphone, one which emits an IR beam and has internal hardware for interpreting the data from the 2 cameras is going to be half the price of a camera that already sells for $30 by itself (and could handle a price cut), and a wand controller?

This guy obviously just went... "well, wiimote is $60, pseye is $30, 60+30=$100!!!!"

Doesn't even take into account that "sphere" does not have a speaker built in, no IR camera on the tip, and no attachments to snap onto it.

Viper

10-16-2009, 10:31 AM

He is to video game analytics what Jack Thompson is to video game law.

VG Aficionado

10-16-2009, 10:34 AM

Funny, I expected a Jack Thompson thread. For a second I had Patcher and Thompson mixed in my mind. Meh.

masteratt

10-16-2009, 10:39 AM

I watched him twice in lengthy interviews (both at Gametrailers)
He is as fair and balanced as FOX news ;)
(hey it's the hot topic atm :p)

Total anti-Sony person, what I found even more annoying is he throws in a few 'sweet' Sony comments to not come across that way but then continues to bash bash bash .... Sony can't do shit because they are stupid or none of anything they do make sense or blah blah...He is a headache to listen to.

I rather listen to Jack Thompson than this guy.
At least Jack Thompson doesn't cover up his insanity.

Segitz

10-16-2009, 04:45 PM

Ach... Pachter is blinded idiot. He gave GTA3 "no" chance back in the day, because it was too different and not focused enough. This guy was also one of the people that said the Wii will tank. He is biased as hell, which wouldn't be as bad if he didn't have such a big audience via Bonus Round. Even Geoff Keighly (member of the "biased" Gametrailers) is more moderate (I actually like him) and counter points him quite often.

pac4life

10-16-2009, 10:23 PM

hahah frosty that made my day.

$100???

cliffbo

10-16-2009, 10:24 PM

how can he get it so badly the wrong way around?

Carlos

10-17-2009, 07:45 AM

jaxmkii

10-17-2009, 02:08 PM

there's a good possiblity to could even be more.

Lucent Beam

10-17-2009, 03:43 PM

Uh, how is this even a surprise? Its been known that Microsoft is aiming to price it like a console, and some game companies already predict it as $100 bucks. I'm not sure who said it, but I know I've read $100 price tag next to natal.

I think you misread. His prediction was that Natal would be $50 and the Sony controller would be $100.

I also don't find $100 to be unreasonable for either of them. Think about plastic guitars: they used to be (some still are) like $50-$70 on their own and they serve a really limited purpose and people still buy them. Same with drum controllers. They are like $80-$100 on their own and serve a limited purpose and people still buy them. The Eyetoy and the Vision cam are.... cameras. Which is why they are cheap. I can't imagine either Sony or MS pricing their new thing low. It just doesn't make sense when they can see that consumers already buy overpriced accessories to serve a limited purpose.

Black Dragon37

10-17-2009, 05:29 PM

But the overpriced accessories are third-party.

Microsoft and Sony have more to lose if they overprice theirs.

Segitz

10-17-2009, 06:03 PM

No way... first party accessories are always the higher priced ones... 55€ for a DS3 is insane. Same goes for Wiimotes or 360 HDDs.

But, as Frosty said, I can't see Pachter way of thinking when he says that Sonys MC will be more expensive than Natal.

jaxmkii

10-17-2009, 10:55 PM

im going to pay 300usd for the new gt5 wheel come march

Carlos

10-18-2009, 07:27 AM

I think you misread. His prediction was that Natal would be $50 and the Sony controller would be $100.
Angela! :(

But yeah, my bad. :-/

Yes, the motion "sphere" should cost a little lesser than $100 - however, I would understand the price because of the technology it has. And secondly, he's trying to make Microsoft look better in the motion controls "war" going on between Sony and Microsoft (sony for sphere, and microsoft for natal).

:toot:

Hisham

10-18-2009, 10:31 AM

I really can't see the wand being more than 30 bucks. Maybe even 20 bucks. The wand itself probably has nowhere near the production costs of the Wii for the reasons that frosty listed.

Seriously... If this is all it takes to become a video game analyst, consider me intrigued. I would very much like to spurt out nonsense and get paid for it.

Domination

10-18-2009, 05:39 PM

OK, let me get this straight.

A system with 2 cameras and a microphone<----try multiple, one which emits an IR beam and has internal hardware for interpreting the data from the 2 cameras is going to be half the price of a camera that already sells for $30 by itself (and could handle a price cut), and a wand controller?

This guy obviously just went... "well, wiimote is $60, pseye is $30, 60+30=$100!!!!"

Doesn't even take into account that "sphere" does not have a speaker built in, no IR camera on the tip, and no attachments to snap onto it.

Yeah, he's definitely a moron.

You also forget, Frosty that this Natal camera is suppose the have a specially designed CPU implemented into it to offset the hit the camera will have on the 360's CPU. Sony's camera nor controller will feature such a thing -- probably due to Cell already being a beast of a CPU as it is, to help save cost on both manufacturing and competitive pricing.

So like I said in another thread, despite the vision camera belonging to Microsoft, this camera was simply just another EyeToy (PS2 camera) without a mic in a different shell being priced at $30 to $40 to Sony's PSeye at $40 at launch, which is currently now only $30. With Natal supporting as much as it does over the vision cam, the pricing seems to be double that, if not more, and that's just a standalone. On the other foot, Sony's controller seems less featured than Nintendo's Wii-mote, which stands at $35. Combined with in-house manufacturing, the pricing appears significantly cheaper at an entry level to Natal. Bundled with the cam, and the combination seems to be level field with Nintendo's Nunchuck, if not slightly less.

Patcher is obviously not thinking about any of this. Maybe he was just waking up when he commented on the three.

Domination

10-18-2009, 06:20 PM

I think you misread. His prediction was that Natal would be $50 and the Sony controller would be $100.

I also don't find $100 to be unreasonable for either of them. Think about plastic guitars: they used to be (some still are) like $50-$70 on their own and they serve a really limited purpose and people still buy them. Same with drum controllers. They are like $80-$100 on their own and serve a limited purpose and people still buy them. The Eyetoy and the Vision cam are.... cameras. Which is why they are cheap. I can't imagine either Sony or MS pricing their new thing low. It just doesn't make sense when they can see that consumers already buy overpriced accessories to serve a limited purpose.

They did it with the Dual Shock, and they did it with the PSeye. What's to stop them from doing it now other than this being a new, singled handed controller?

Mark my words, the MOST I can see the sphere controller is the exact same price as the Wii-mote, which is $35 to $40, which, if I may add, is far more advance than Sphere, technically. There is nothing else in it other than an in-house, on board battery, that really differentiates the two otherwise.

frosty

10-18-2009, 06:24 PM

Domination

10-18-2009, 06:46 PM

guys, let's look at this from a technical cost perspective. The wiimote has accelerometers, an IR camera, a speaker, and it's trigger/buttons. The PS Sphere wand is nothing more than a motion plus adapter with buttons on it and a little led light on top inside the sphere. couple that with the pseye which already retails at $30, and I don't see the full camera/controller package costing any more than a wiimote/nunchuck.

I totally agree, Frosty. It is what I was trying to say before, but I guess it didn't come across clearly as originally planned. My wife was talking in my ear as I was trying to round my thoughts up, too.

I forgot about the mic in that controller. Excellent eye...

GTAce

10-18-2009, 07:31 PM

I expect:

Natal - 149,95 $/€
Natal 360 Bundle 349,95 $/€

Sphere (or how it will be called) - 49,95 $/€
Sphere PS Eye Bundle - 79,95 $/€

Segitz

10-18-2009, 09:00 PM

I actually expect both to be much cheaper... Say 70€ for Sonys controler bundled with a casual game (something like Eyepet, which is cheaper to produce and has potential to garner the casual crowd) which is compatible with the hardware. I mean, a game like Eyepet costs 40 odd Euros... add in the additional controller (which isn't expensive to produce, just look at the WM+ and add buttons (sub cent articles in wholesale) and a ball with an RGB LED and you are good to go.

AC!D

10-19-2009, 12:51 PM

Here is Mr Pachters new prediction...Xbox Live will be $100 per year, Pachter believes (http://www.thatvideogameblog.com/2009/10/18/xbox-live-will-be-100-per-year-pachter-believes/)

Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter expects Microsoft to raise the price of Xbox Live Gold membership from the current $50 to $100 per year in the next few years.

“You can’t hook a guy into Xbox Live Gold if he’s playing on a PC,” Pachter said in a GTTV discussion talking about how Microsoft has seemingly given up on the PC gamer market. “… that’s the other problem — you really want to hook every gamer who has a 360, you want them to buy all their games on 360, play everything multiplayer, pay you 50 bucks a year so that, in a couple years, it’s a 100 bucks a year.”

“And that’s going up, we all know that … it’s a profit deal,” he concluded.

Thoughts?

I think he is right about the MS has given up on the PC industry bit though. My question would be did they ever really care?

cliffbo

10-19-2009, 04:56 PM

putting Live subscription would be counter productive and a terrible move. unless MS want to make a quick buck or two before they finally bow out, i can't see this happening. Patcher just makes shit up... that much shit that sometimes he's right (unfortunately)

Coded-Dude

10-19-2009, 05:25 PM

I have a prediction: PS4 will be expensive.

cliffbo

10-19-2009, 05:38 PM

i've just watched the actual video of what Patcher said and all he was trying to express was that LIVE would go up in price. he was just exaggerating a point to make one. it has been taken out of context

Lucent Beam

10-19-2009, 06:10 PM

I would not pay $100 a year for Live. That's like $8.50 a month. No.

Segitz

10-19-2009, 07:10 PM

I have a prediction: PS4 will be expensive.

I neg repped you for that in my mind^^

I REALLY doubt that a PS4 will be expensive though... There's nothing on the horizon that would make it so much more expensive, like BDROM did. And there's no real need for another bigger optical medium just now.

HPK

10-19-2009, 07:12 PM

I would not pay $100 a year for Live. That's like $8.50 a month. No.

Yeah, I would stay on a Silver account if Live went up in price. I don't need to play online multiplayer that badly.

Lucent Beam

10-19-2009, 07:20 PM

If it were 100$ for Live AND Netflix combined, then I'd be all over that because it'd be a good ideal.

HPK

10-19-2009, 07:26 PM

If it were 100$ for Live AND Netflix combined, then I'd be all over that because it'd be a good ideal.

Well, it depends on the Netflix deal. I'm on someone else's account, so get free access to whatever movies are available, and I can just ask for them to add other movies that aren't available. The only thing I can't do is browse for new movies on my own or rent physical copies of the movies, which doesn't bug me in the slightest. I also don't recall any Netflix deal going over $50, so I don't really see the $100 for Live and Netflix being a deal.

Domination

10-20-2009, 12:45 AM

I have a prediction: PS4 will be expensive.

I believe Sony learned ther less this gen by underestimating the consumer with a high price. Itink they'll be ready next time.

Lucent Beam

10-20-2009, 01:59 AM

Well, it depends on the Netflix deal. I'm on someone else's account, so get free access to whatever movies are available, and I can just ask for them to add other movies that aren't available. The only thing I can't do is browse for new movies on my own or rent physical copies of the movies, which doesn't bug me in the slightest. I also don't recall any Netflix deal going over $50, so I don't really see the $100 for Live and Netflix being a deal.

Why can't you browse for movies on your own? If you are signed into that account, Netflix lets you browse and add?

HPK

10-20-2009, 04:43 AM

Why can't you browse for movies on your own? If you are signed into that account, Netflix lets you browse and add?

Well, I'm not 100% sure on all the details but I'm pretty sure I can use the account since I don't have that information. I'm basically just a guest on another account. Maybe they don't want me fucking around with what's on the instant que or something.

jaxmkii

10-20-2009, 05:00 AM

I think he is right about the MS has given up on the PC industry bit though. My question would be did they ever really care?
thats why i hate the 360... because ever since xbox came on the field MS has shit all over PC gaming.

cliffbo

10-20-2009, 06:00 PM

I have a prediction: PS4 will be expensive.

nope. there won't be anywhere near as much investment in Cell and Blu-ray will be dirt cheap

cliffbo

10-20-2009, 06:02 PM

thats why i hate the 360... because ever since xbox came on the field MS has shit all over PC gaming.

bring everyone in the same tent with direct x and then leave 'em stranded

JasonXe

10-20-2009, 06:03 PM

PC gamers shitted on themselves as well.

AC!D

10-20-2009, 07:05 PM

PC gamers shitted on themselves as well.

Thats also true. I wonder how bad the pirating on 360 and PS3 are?

jaxmkii

10-20-2009, 07:06 PM

agreed... PC piracy to be exact.

its nonexistant on PS3... except for sony approved game sharingenuity

curryking1

10-20-2009, 07:06 PM

There is no pirating on PS3. As of now, at least.

360 pirating, going by what I've seen in... pirating stores... big business since 2 years ago.

You don't even have to look far to see evidence of pirating, torrent sites will tell you everything you need to know. You can gauge popularity just by how many seeds/peers there are.

cliffbo

10-20-2009, 08:14 PM

ok, so this is an extract of an interview with MS and the Patcher remark was put to him. he responded:

"I don't foresee a scenario where we're going to double the price of LIVE anytime in the next couple months," said Dennis.

interesting response, don't you think. why the next couple of months? and why only say 'double'... Patcher could be right you know, MS could be about to raise the price of LIVE next year

http://www.pcworld.com/article/173952/microsoft_most_people_think_xbox_360_games_look_be tter.html

jaxmkii

10-20-2009, 08:45 PM

Sounds like MS. "but well use the money to make live better!"

1.kill the uncontrollable open PC market.
2.get PC hardcore crowd to buy our consloe
3.convince them everything they got free on the PC is worth 50usd a year
4.slowly increase the cost as more folk grow aclimated to paying higher pricess.
5. proffit

humm... same basic business model as big oil.
1.destroy alternitives
2. force depenance
3.confuse and impose values.
4. increase cost as public acceptance increses.
5. proffit

if your local grocery store started charging a cover charge to improve your shoping XP would you accept it?

masteratt

10-20-2009, 08:55 PM

I did not believe a word of this until I read cliffbo's link.
They are obviously planning to up it, there is no way you answer it in that way if there were no plans for a price jump.

And here I am saying I can't wait until MS makes Live free so I get a Xbox360, but nope, they are talking about upping the price.
Just shows how different me and MS's mindsets are.

And yes it matters that much...currently I just play the games I want on my brother's 360 but for me to get one of my own and to use it to it's full extent, I do not want to pay to play online.

jaxmkii

10-20-2009, 08:58 PM

untill MS shows PC some love... ill will not feed the beast

cliffbo

10-20-2009, 09:07 PM

sent to kotaku. bribery? cool stuff? would you pay more for LIVE if it had cool stuff? i know i wouldn't pay more for cool stuff. but perhaps you'd pay more for cool stuff

http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/9/2009/10/500x_custom_1256042026576_live.jpg

"This is an exclusive pilot rewards program. That means that the people who get in get stuff. Cool stuff. You want cool stuff, right? Sure you do, we all want stuff. Especially cool stuff. Well, you've only got until October 21, 2009 to let us know you want cool stuff, because after that, the doors close and someone else gets the cool stuff.

So, you click the button below and register to let us know you want in and pretty soon we'll let you know if you got in or not - and not everyone will (that's why it's called exclusive).

This offer is for a select few - you can't send it to anyone else (why would you send something this awesome to someone else, are you nuts?). If you make the cut, you can pass or opt-out whenever you want.

But then you'll never know how it ended."

http://kotaku.com/5385637/microsoft-explores-xbox-live-rewards-program

Domination

10-20-2009, 10:51 PM

Lucent Beam

10-21-2009, 12:24 AM

cliffbo

10-21-2009, 01:02 AM

That rewards program seems more similar to Club Nintendo than anything else.

And cliffbo, keep in mind that even something like Home would not be a profitable success without people randomly willing to pay more for "cool stuff" (in this case, digital cool stuff).

yep, i know that. it's just that Patcher said what he did, MS didn't deny it and now these Emails are going out... sometimes things suddenly pop up and it just seems as if something is going to happen

JasonXe

10-21-2009, 01:27 AM

There is no pirating on PS3. As of now, at least

game sharing can be consider as a form of pirating.

Segitz

10-21-2009, 06:51 AM

game sharing can be consider as a form of pirating.

No, because "piracy" is "illegal". Gamesharing is NOT. (I am a member of the german pirate party, so I have quite a different view on piracy anyway)

JasonXe

10-21-2009, 07:17 AM

No, because "piracy" is "illegal". Gamesharing is NOT. (I am a member of the german pirate party, so I have quite a different view on piracy anyway)

Pirating: To make use of or reproduce (another's work) without authorization.

Just because "we" called it gamesharing doesn't make it legal. Those of us who participated in it are using the feature different from it's intended purpose. I'm pretty sure every game has some copyright protection on it "© Some Company". Though there is little to no system in place to catch people doing it and suffer consequences (kinda like torrents). Even though we don't pay a penalty for doing it, doesn't make it legal. You should know better than that Segitz.

Segitz

10-21-2009, 04:19 PM

But you HAVE authorization! Just look at the legalese within PSN. It says SPECIFICALLY "content can be activated on up to 5 PS3 systems"... nothing more nothing less. Hence, it IS legal!

JasonXe

10-21-2009, 05:03 PM

It also depends on the game license and agreement. Though Sony pretty much invites you to take it. I feel bad for the devs now :-(.

Segitz

10-21-2009, 07:39 PM

curryking1

10-21-2009, 07:55 PM

game sharing can be consider as a form of pirating.

How can that be pirating if Sony has absolute control over such a thing and allows you to do it? PSN games are associated with PSN accounts which have their own rules. Not the case with discs.

Oh wait, Segitz covered it.

(apparently there are extremely invasive procedures which can let you mess around with the PS3, but those are... like I said... extremely invasive... in addition, from what I've read, they do not have reasonable application concerning game pirating)

In summary, there is no pirating on PS3. As of today. You won't see burned Playstation 3 games in any pirating store, which should permanently suspend anyone's disbelief about the subject.

After 3 years, that is impressive and bodes well for all parties when investing in making games on the PS3.

JasonXe

10-21-2009, 09:15 PM

Well... of course it is on a per game basis, but only the ones with the open variant are really shareable anyway, so...

Also... I doubt that too many people really exploit game sharing. I know people use it, but not to the extend that some people do it over the internet (i.e. 5 people who buy one game each every 5 releases).

I know some games that had the non-distribution agreement when i did game sharing. Going by that the orginal statement from curryking i quoted is false. Even if it's by 1%, my orginal point is valid.

jaxmkii

10-21-2009, 10:23 PM

those game have there own mesures

cliffbo

10-26-2009, 05:13 PM

i don't particularly like this guy but the internet is totally misunderstanding him at the minute. the latest comment from him (according to the internet) is that the Wii HD will be out mid 2010... now he did use those words but it was totally tongue in cheek. if anyone remembers what he said a while back it becomes very clear what the joke was.

'the Wii HD exists, it's the PS3'

and when is the Wand supposed to be released... yes, you guessed it. there are so many morons out there in digispace

Viper

10-27-2009, 01:57 AM

Cliff, he's been talking about Wii HD and 2010 for the past year now. That's not a one time comment and he's very adamant about the Wii getting and HD upgrade in 2010. I don't recall an off hand comment about Wii HD = PS3 with Wand/Sphere.

cliffbo

10-27-2009, 07:11 PM

but, Viper, it was clearly an in joke between him and the interviewer. just look at the body language and the tone of what he said. he even added a little limp hand at the end as if to say 'what ever' jokingly. the in joke was that he said that there was a WiiHD, it was the PS3. he may have made mention of the WiiHD before, but in this particular case, he was just having a joke

i don't think he's that relevant to gaming, but the internet needs to grow up a lot and not take everything too literally for the sake of a headline. he never meant LIVE would be $100 either. what he was expressing in the sentence was that MS will put LIVE up a little at a time until eventually you could be paying twice as much for it

Viper

10-27-2009, 11:20 PM

What particular case? I don't see any links to the video that your referencing.

cliffbo

10-27-2009, 11:41 PM

think it's either this one or the one before it. you can adjust this player to play all of them

http://www.gametrailers.com/episode/bonusround/309?ch=4&sd=1

cliffbo

10-28-2009, 10:46 PM

this is very interesting if true. it does make sense:

Microsoft themselves started the rumor.

According to a source inside of Xbox, Microsoft started the rumor so that customers would purchase one year subscriptions now in fear of the rising cost. Also the source says Xbox and Microsoft were in talks of rising the price to $100 very soon but instead decided to push a rumor out that they might raise the price to boost renewal sales of subscriptions.

The source did not rule out that Xbox Live may one day be a hundred dollars a year but said that at this specific time the rumor of it was created by MS and Xbox to make money off the people that would upgrade subscriptions that might just be a month or two into year long ones so that they wouldn’t have to pay the charge of 100 dollars when it came.

This is just another shining example of Microsoft’s greed and how dumb they think their customers are.

http://overlycriticalgamer.podbean.com/2009/10/28/ms-started-100-xbox-live-rumor/