Analyst: Sony to control 61% of the market

[xbdestroya]

You know I don't really put any faith into analyst numbers, but I just thought I'd go ahead and post this here since it is PS3 related.


Strategy Analytics: Sony Will Win 61% Market Share In Next Generation Consoles
Tuesday July 19, 11:08 am ET
PS3 and Xbox 360 Critical To Digital Home Strategies of Microsoft and Sony

LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 19, 2005--Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo will sell nearly 200 million next generation games consoles by 2012, according to Strategy Analytics, the global research and consulting company. According to a report released today titled "Games Consoles For The Digital Home: Assessing The Prospects For PS3, Xbox 360 And Revolution", Microsoft's Xbox 360 will present a serious challenge to Sony's dominance of the games console market and will lead the North American and European markets until 2007. But the PlayStation 3 (PS3) will eventually pull ahead if Sony ensures that its online experience matches that of the Xbox 360, and that its Cell processor technology meets its full potential to transform gaming into a near-video quality experience.

The report describes how both the PS3 and the Xbox 360 will become cornerstones of each company's digital home strategy. Sony will use the PS3 to help establish Blu-ray Disc and the Cell processor as mass market technologies. For Microsoft the Xbox 360 could secure a leading position for the home PC as a broadband digital media server.

"The Xbox 360 represents one of Microsoft's best hopes of controlling the digital home," notes David Mercer, Principal Analyst at Strategy Analytics. "The 2005 holiday season will be a make-or-break time not only for the Xbox 360, but also for Microsoft's wider digital home strategy."

The report predicts that Sony will sell 121.8 million PS3s worldwide through 2012. Sales of Xbox 360s are expected to reach 58.8 million and of Nintendo's Revolution nearly 18 million. Cumulative retail revenues for all consoles over this period will exceed $47bn.

Link (http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050719/195743.html?.v=1)

[Phryne Astynome]

This is just crazy. 200 million consoles? If China was part of the market, I can definitely see this happening. But, this generation, the total console sales did not even reach anything even close to 200 million. These analysts are definitely not reliable.

[PhYmon]

Hey thats a pretty cool picture, nice very nice number; by the way microsoft loves numbers so there u have them! HAHA!

[Viper]

The most laughable prediction yet.
I agree with Sony at 61% though but the volumes of each are preposterous.

[PhYmon]

This is just crazy. 200 million consoles? If China was part of the market, I can definitely see this happening. But, this generation, the total console sales did not even reach anything even close to 200 million. These analysts are definitely not reliable.
hey man u have to consider that these number are all together, and by 2012 i can see it happen

[Coded-Dude]

easily......!

[xbdestroya]

I don't know - I'm with Phryne on this one. I feel like there would have to be some sort of market expansion somewhere. I know South Korea is beginning to open up to the whole console thing, but...

The demographic trends in Europe and Japan just aren't condusive to it on their own, and I don't think the North America market could fuel it all. Maybe these analysts are from the school of thought that believes there will be many multi-console households this gen?

Anyway I have to look at that 200 million figure with a skeptical eye. Of course if Eastern Europe becomes console obsessed or China and/or India become large export targets for these companies, anything could happen.

[Domination]

I'm not passing off any victor, but the way I see it, analyts said the samething about about Microsoft surpassing and even killing off Sony's PS2 console when they were getting ready to launch the market. Therefore, I don't put much trust in their numbers anymore. As far as we know, Sony could establish 121 million in less time than predicted or they could very well lose an unexpected precentage in market share. We don't know. Only time can tell that story - in most cases anyway.

[Metal Sphere]

Ugh, another guy in a suit paid to make educated guesses. That 200 million number is ridiculous. They're seriously overestimating how tempting features like online play, HD playback and extreme backwards compatibility will be to non-gamers. Sure it'll expand, but what this is expecting is an outright explosion.

As for the percentage, I'd say it'll be ~65%.

[Phryne Astynome]

I don't know - I'm with Phryne on this one. I feel like there would have to be some sort of market expansion somewhere. I know South Korea is beginning to open up to the whole console thing, but...

The demographic trends in Europe and Japan just aren't condusive to it on their own, and I don't think the North America market could fuel it all. Maybe these analysts are from the school of thought that believes there will be many multi-console households this gen?

Anyway I have to look at that 200 million figure with a skeptical eye. Of course if Eastern Europe becomes console obsessed or China and/or India become large export targets for these companies, anything could happen.

Yep, Europe and Japan both have aging demographics and these people aren't likely to spend their disposable income on a gaming console. I am always surprised that people think the EU will be the biggest market, I don't think they ever will be because they are aging fast. I highly doubt Eastern Europe will ever become a big market too (the population is just too old).

[Coded-Dude]

ALL the EXTRA features will automatically bring new users to the industry.
Look at what the DVD feature did for PS2.....I can definately see this happening in just under a decade.

remember ....... these aren't just gaming consoles anymore

[Eidorian]

ALL the EXTRA features will automatically bring new users to the industry.
Look at what the DVD feature did for PS2.....I can definately see this happening in just under a decade.

remember ....... these aren't just gaming consoles anymoreYes, sadly they've turned into multimedia living room trojan horses.

[Maya 5.0]

Nintendo only 18 million?Did they not do it this generation?

I think these analyst dont know too much about gaming and do this for the sake of bringing hits to their web site.

[tazz3]

2012 I THINK THE PS4 WILL BE OUT BY THEN LOL

[Raijin]

2012 I THINK THE PS4 WILL BE OUT BY THEN LOL

I hope not! I want the next-gen to be there for a long time.

[Viper]

Nintendo only 18 million?Did they not do it this generation?

I think these analyst dont know too much about gaming and do this for the sake of bringing hits to their web site.

They've already hit 20 million, 1 million short of the Xbox. This is the only analyst so far that has said Nintendo will lose market share, the rest say it will gain share.



2012 I THINK THE PS4 WILL BE OUT BY THEN LOL
Yes, it will be out by then. We'll be at least 1 maybe 2 years into the next generation after this upcomming one.

[Loc]

Why should it matter how little Nintendo sells. That fact is they're gonna be alive for a long time. Out of all three companies, Nintendo has been making profits on each console sold since its debut. Unlike the Playstation and Xbox which started at a loss. I think Nintendo will sell more than Microsoft next round though, maybe their innovation will win people over.

[Viper]

Maybe it will. Analysts are making predictions based on extremely incomplete data. I highly doubt that Big N waltzed into thier offices with the complete design and ideas behind the Revolution.

[rpgamer_2k5]

The report predicts that Sony will sell 121.8 million PS3s worldwide through 2012. Sales of Xbox 360s are expected to reach 58.8 million and of Nintendo's Revolution nearly 18 million. Cumulative retail revenues for all consoles over this period will exceed $47bn.

This report is written by individuals that become so giddy when seeing the well statured flexing their muscles. It's so pathetic seeing this type of filth being accepted by many. For one dismissing the Nintendo Revolution just kills the credibility of this analysis. I'm sorry if I offend anyone but Nintendo will probably end up striding ahead of MS just like the DS vs PSP. While MS is constantly flexing, Nintendo is working on getting a console that will just shut every naysayer up. I still remembered when the news about MS entering the console business appeared. Everyone felt that MS was going to dominate since the firm has godly powers along with the richest man Bill Gates. Many in the past just like now believed that Bill Gates controlling MS will automatically allow the company to dominate the console market. If it was so easy then MS can end up taking over the kitchen as well, not maybe even the automobile sector. Even though I'm not infallible the chances of MS of taking such a share is not that likely. MS had power on its side with the Xbox, released before the Gamecube yet Nintendo was able to have similar sales. Nintendo did make alot of mistakes with the GC but now they will be more third-party friendly and also expect more games geared for adult games. Heck lets not forget that the Resident Evil series will most likely stay on the Revolution.

When we look at this article at 2007, we'll see that these analysts have been speaking from their posterior just like the rest.

[Hardcore Gamer]

Why should it matter how little Nintendo sells. That fact is they're gonna be alive for a long time. Out of all three companies, Nintendo has been making profits on each console sold since its debut. Unlike the Playstation and Xbox which started at a loss. I think Nintendo will sell more than Microsoft next round though, maybe their innovation will win people over.
Well, Nintendo's reluctance to equal (or exceed) the power of both the PS3 and Xbox 360 could hurt them.

As for their innovation, that's BS. Aside from their controllers, Nintendo has done nothing but release rehash after rehash on their consoles. I know Mario set the tone for platformers back in '85, but they're milking him way too much now. Mario Tennis, Baseball, Party, etc. They need to add new franchises. Than again, with Parin Kaplan basically insinuating that they do not care if they win the console wars, I guess it just doesn't matter at this point. It seems like they've lost complete confidence in their ability to compete anymore, which is sad because I grew up with Nintendo's consoles. I owned their first three consoles but I lost respect for them after their screw up with the N64. Losing Rare was worst thing that could happen to them.

[rpgamer_2k5]

Why should it matter how little Nintendo sells. That fact is they're gonna be alive for a long time. Out of all three companies, Nintendo has been making profits on each console sold since its debut. Unlike the Playstation and Xbox which started at a loss. I think Nintendo will sell more than Microsoft next round though, maybe their innovation will win people over.

I agree.

But one correction Sony started off selling at a loss but quickly started making profit. Xbox on the other hand was selling at a loss and in the end, the Xbox's cost exceeded the revenue big time.

This article has just made my head spin. Why do I feel that this this is nothing but the annoying 'jumping into the bandwagon' scenario that happened several years ago.

Correction, Nintendo will not just have innovation, they will sell a very well balanced console. The chances of it out-performing the Xbox 360 is very high too since that console isn't really based on any out-of-reach technology.

[cpiasminc]

Anyway I have to look at that 200 million figure with a skeptical eye. Of course if Eastern Europe becomes console obsessed or China and/or India become large export targets for these companies, anything could happen.
Well, considering total console sales for this generation was somewhere in the 110-120 million range, it's still a sizeable growth. I don't know about China, but India is kind of a mixed bag. There are a handful of game development outsourcing studios that have popped up in the Southern regions over the past few years and I recently noticed even more publishers. However, the costs of consoles and console games is pretty prohibitive for the average Indian buyer... only those who are making in the tens of lakhs per year could afford a console even at Gamecube prices, and most people making that kind of money are not in the appropriate age demographics. It's not yet a gaming culture in the least, really. At this point in time, the world's only genuine gaming culture is still Japan. Beyond maybe EA's Cricket series (possibly tennis) and maybe chess titles, I don't see anything really selling well at all in India -- I'd be amazed if a Halo even sold one copy.

[Viper]

Well, Nintendo's reluctance to equal (or exceed) the power of both the PS3 and Xbox 360 could hurt them.

As for their innovation, that's BS. Aside from their controllers, Nintendo has done nothing but release rehash after rehash on their consoles. I know Mario set the tone for platformers back in '85, but they're milking him way too much now. Mario Tennis, Baseball, Party, etc. They need to add new franchises. Than again, with Parin Kaplan basically insinuating that they do not care if they win the console wars, I guess it just doesn't matter at this point. It seems like they've lost complete confidence in their ability to compete anymore, which is sad because I grew up with Nintendo's consoles. I owned their first three consoles but I lost respect for them after their screw up with the N64. Losing Rare was worst thing that could happen to them.


I guess their innovation into polygons on 16 bit systems doesn't count. Nor the light gun, dance mat, password system, etc... Yeah, they never innovate beyond the controller. The very ones that everyone else bites off of?</end sarcasm>

Rehashing? Do you even know what that means? They are utilizing a brand, a character in completely different settings and developments. That's not rehashing at all.

Rehash
noun: old material that is slightly reworked and used again.

Mario platforming to Mario Karting to Mario Baseballing. There is nothing slightly about that. Those are very dramatic deviations from Marios' normal gameplay.

The selling of Rares stock back to the company was actually a brilliant move. Nintendo received million in cash and MS has received what exactly so far?

[Z]

the gaming industry is still young compared to others. you will most likely find these 'analysts' to be general tech analysts, PC analysts, and so on, but not pure 'gaming view' analysts. they just seem to not take into consideration somethings that are different that their general feild of expertiese that are unique to gaming consoles.

also, I find them given Ninty that low a precentage to be outrageous, especially when they know NOTHING about it. I really think if Ninty played their cards right, MS could be eating their dust. they sure have every potential of doing it. it just seems Ninty likes to shoot themselves in the foot all the time and set themselves in the back of gamers minds with some of their announcements and decisions.
I also think Rev can sell pritty good as a DV player based purely on the very attractive design.
I also believe that if Sony delivers what is in gamers and devs minds, PS3 will overwhelm anything else on the market. it already looks to gain more momentum than the crazy PS2 brainwash syndrom.

[Viper]

I've been stating since last year that it looks as though it will be a much closer race by all three. I still think Sony will take the overall lead but not by the 70% share they had this gen.

Sony - 40%
MS - 30%
Big N - 30%
+ or - 5% for any of them.

[HereticPB]

LOL. Did I not see something that states Nintendo Owns 55% of the Market??

[Viper]

Including handhelds, yes.

[xbdestroya]

Well, considering total console sales for this generation was somewhere in the 110-120 million range, it's still a sizeable growth. I don't know about China, but India is kind of a mixed bag. There are a handful of game development outsourcing studios that have popped up in the Southern regions over the past few years and I recently noticed even more publishers. However, the costs of consoles and console games is pretty prohibitive for the average Indian buyer... only those who are making in the tens of lakhs per year could afford a console even at Gamecube prices, and most people making that kind of money are not in the appropriate age demographics. It's not yet a gaming culture in the least, really. At this point in time, the world's only genuine gaming culture is still Japan. Beyond maybe EA's Cricket series (possibly tennis) and maybe chess titles, I don't see anything really selling well at all in India -- I'd be amazed if a Halo even sold one copy.

Yeah I agree, I was just bringing China and India into the picture because I could see a situation in which the analysts were thinking about those two countries as possible export targets this gen, and thus basing some of their 200 million number on the assumption that there will be some penetration there.

We'll see how it plays out. Analysts are almost always 'wrong' in these situations simply because they do things like toss out absolute numbers on minimal information. But it's really the accuracy of the trend prediction that matters with them - and that's really what their job is, the hard numbers are just a way of doing it since they're expected to make a 'prediction.' Here we're seeing a claim that the trend will be aggressive growth. I don't think it will be that aggressive - but I'll enjoy watching another generation of the console wars and it's associated figures and stats, regardless. :smoke:

[woundingchaney]

I've been stating since last year that it looks as though it will be a much closer race by all three. I still think Sony will take the overall lead but not by the 70% share they had this gen.

Sony - 40%
MS - 30%
Big N - 30%
+ or - 5% for any of them.


I still cant see Nin owning that much of the market, a 10 percent lead for Sony is a far guess but I predict Nin only owning roughly 15 percent of the market with the other 15 percent split equally between MS and Sony. Also I think this gen your going to see a lot of people owning both MS and Sony consoles.

[Metal Sphere]

I still cant see Nin owning that much of the market, a 10 percent lead for Sony is a far guess but I predict Nin only owning roughly 15 percent of the market with the other 15 percent split equally between MS and Sony. Also I think this gen your going to see a lot of people owning both MS and Sony consoles.

Yes, the trend towards multi-platform games will have people buying both consoles for their exclusives and then whichever one of the two they favor more they'll buy more games for it. But we'll see a lot of folks that own both, if not all three.

[woundingchaney]

Yes, the trend towards multi-platform games will have people buying both consoles for their exclusives and then whichever one of the two they favor more they'll buy more games for it. But we'll see a lot of folks that own both, if not all three.


The reason why Im doubting all 3 is because Nin has really dropped the ball lately. I mean how many worth while games in the last 2 years have you bought for your gamecube (maybe 5 probably less). Nintendo isnt really bringing anything to the table (other than a low release price). They are concentrating on emulating all their old games but with the next gen who really cares about games from the the 80's. If they continue this course you can probably find them as a powerful third party developer in the gen after this one.

[xbdestroya]

The reason why Im doubting all 3 is because Nin has really dropped the ball lately. I mean how many worth while games in the last 2 years have you bought for your gamecube (maybe 5 probably less). Nintendo isnt really bringing anything to the table (other than a low release price). They are concentrating on emulating all their old games but with the next gen who really cares about games from the the 80's. If they continue this course you can probably find them as a powerful third party developer in the gen after this one.

Well I have to say, it's the fact that they'll be providing all these 80's games that in facts locks the system in as a buy for me - strange as that is, I know, since I have to wonder how often I'll be playing them. (But if they put MULE out, all the time!)

That being said though, there would be no reason for Nintendo to stop making consoles and the software for their consoles as long as that segement remains profitable for them. I can see the Revolution actually doing better than GameCube this gen though; we really just need to see more.

[woundingchaney]

Well I have to say, it's the fact that they'll be providing all these 80's games that in facts locks the system in as a buy for me - strange as that is, I know, since I have to wonder how often I'll be playing them. (But if they put MULE out, all the time!)

That being said though, there would be no reason for Nintendo to stop making consoles and the software for their consoles as long as that segement remains profitable for them. I can see the Revolution actually doing better than GameCube this gen though; we really just need to see more.

I cant agree especially with MS overtaking them during this gen. It just seems like they play second hand to MS and Sony these days (which is what happened to Sega not long before their demise). Nintendo is really going to have to redo their marketing scheme and their overall look at the average gamer next gen to stay in the console business let alone be profitable.

[rpgamer_2k5]

woundingchaney: MS hardly overtook Nintendo in this generation. Yet we have many claiming that MS is going to eat some spinach and overtake everyone. I for one see Nintendo doing better with the Revolution and possibly even selling more than the Xbox 360.

[Viper]

I cant agree especially with MS overtaking them during this gen. It just seems like they play second hand to MS and Sony these days (which is what happened to Sega not long before their demise). Nintendo is really going to have to redo their marketing scheme and their overall look at the average gamer next gen to stay in the console business let alone be profitable.
Sega was losing money for years at that point.

Nintnedo has seen one red quarter in 100 years of operation. They are still pulling in over $1 billion a year in profit even in 3rd place.

[OutlawAdidas]

Sega was losing money for years at that point.

Nintnedo has seen one red quarter in 100 years of operation. They are still pulling in over $1 billion a year in profit even in 3rd place.


and they were able to recovering from that red quarter with their launch of amazin software and the Nintendo DS among other stuff.

[Z]

I believe Ninty is a bigger threat to Sony than MS. it seems Ninty is the one messing up themselves. the must show great interest in 3rd parties and reassure gamers with quality demos. even devs now know as much as we do about Rev, which is almost nothing. games are already in the making for both, and devs still have no idea or anything to go with.
Ninty has a huge, and very recognizable lineup of games. they can combine that with agreesive marketing and 3rd party cooperation and make a big splash. they are making less and less profit. they need to do something.

[woundingchaney]

Im not contesting Nin's handheld systems. What Im stating is that I dont think Nin can continue on this console pace through the next gen. They are moving farther and farther away from your average gamer and are recieving very little 3rd party support. If you take away their handheld profits how much are they truly making and they are making that off of their current userbase. The Gamecube isnt really costing Nin anything because the only games released for it are made by Nin and are AAA titles but how many people are going to buy a console with only first party support. Nin isnt giving gamers hardly(notice I said hardly) any reason to invest in their merchandise (apart from a few first party titles).

At that point Sega was indeed losing money but look at their lackluster 32 bit years due to dropping the ball against Sony. The Dreamcast was a great gaming machine but pailed in Sony's media frenzy. Looking at this tell me it doesnt remind you of where Nin is heading in the next console race. Nin still has great name recognition but they have straid far away from what is hot in console gaming today.

[xbdestroya]

Nah I don't think Nintendo has the same smell of death around them that Sega did. Lot's of people have different views on this, but I truly believe Nintendo is in the home console race for the long haul; even if they go down to 5% in that space, as long as they remain profitable (in consoles, not handhelds), they'll remain in it.

I am just one of many people who would and do buy Nintendo consoles exclusively for their first party titles.

[Viper]

GC accounts for about 40% of profit so that is still $400 million a year in profits. Trust me, MS, and to a degree if Immersion wins the appeal, Blu-Ray and CELL are less than stellar, Sony, are at greater risk of not being around after this next generation than Nintendo.

Profit runs a business, not market share.

[woundingchaney]

Right but for the long haul you have to keep gamers interested. Yes theoretically they could only have 20 percent and still recieve a profit but where does that leave them in the long haul as they continue to lose market share. Look at the game support for the gamecube now. How many games have you wanted to buy for the console this year or last. Thats not going to cut it. Profit is important no contest here but market share, business ties, third party support all play a major part as well. If Nin continues in the console business thats great, but as gaming matures and gamers with it, who is going to buy Nin's consoles with rehashed Marios, Karts, and Zeldas. My generation grew up with these titles but how much appeal do they have to others that didnt? Im sure Nin has deep pockets and their handheld market could keep them going indefinetely but if this lackluster console performance keeps up I cant see them making it too many more generations.

[Viper]

OK, you are making just way too many assumptions about the market. You also seem to forget that a kid turns 10 everyday. My oldest son just turned 8 last month so I know the market pretty well.

How many have I wanted to buy? A lot. How many do I plan to buy this year? At least 4 more. Did I mention I'm 27?

Again with the rehashing. Taking a character and setting him in a whole new enviroment and play mechanics is not rehashing. It's a whole new game with a familiar face. Think of movies that use the same actor but a completely different film. Why must video games use different characters for each different game?

You are predicting them to lose market share next gen while most others predict a gain.

How much appeal does LOZ have? If I recall, a few journalists cried, visibly and audibly, at E3 2004 when the new LOZ was debuted. I doubt Halo3 will get such a welcome.

[woundingchaney]

Maybe we have different views of the market. I dont think the average ten year old is interested in what I was at his age. No Im not forgetting gamers or anything along those lines. For as many people that expect them to gain market share there is just as many that expect them to lose market share. I happen to agree with the latter. All Im saying is I dont think they are continuing on the right path to stay in the console race, granted there is good arguements against me, there is also good arguements for me. Looking back at the beginning of the 32 bit era I would have never expected the downfall of Sega to be looming, now looking back on it Nin seems to be following the same path. 4 games a year doesnt seem to be a profitable estimate to me (maybe it is I dont know).

Putting a familiar face in a new environment isnt a rehash until the environment becomes familiar. Nin is trying to bring something to the market I just dont think they are succeeding (for the most part). Yes they have some of the most recognizable characters in gaming history but for how much longer. Its becoming a hobby of Jak,Daxters,Master Chiefs, and GTAs.

[Viper]

Did you know Sega was losing money in the 32 bit era? if you did, you might have forseen their downfall coming rather easily.

What do you expect 10 years to play? Halo? Again, you are assuming what kids want to play when I have kids of my own that break out my SNES and N64 almost daily.


You call Nintendos rehashes yet list off a bunch of rehashes.

[xbdestroya]

Right but for the long haul you have to keep gamers interested. Yes theoretically they could only have 20 percent and still recieve a profit but where does that leave them in the long haul as they continue to lose market share. Look at the game support for the gamecube now. How many games have you wanted to buy for the console this year or last. Thats not going to cut it. Profit is important no contest here but market share, business ties, third party support all play a major part as well. If Nin continues in the console business thats great, but as gaming matures and gamers with it, who is going to buy Nin's consoles with rehashed Marios, Karts, and Zeldas. My generation grew up with these titles but how much appeal do they have to others that didnt? Im sure Nin has deep pockets and their handheld market could keep them going indefinetely but if this lackluster console performance keeps up I cant see them making it too many more generations.

Well, I have to wonder, why do they have to keep up? I mean, even if nothing else - even if they were considered a 'kiddy' console company for the rest of eternity - is that not a viable market? I don't know what the first console you're going to buy your kids is, but mine will be a Nintendo. I can't post the revenues/profits per quarter thing for these companies right now, but seriously Nintendo is wildly profitable. Marketshare is important, but it's not the make-or-break in a successful business. Plenty of successful businesses are niche players within their larger industries.

[Viper]

I can't post the revenues/profits per quarter
I can for Nintendo if we need it. I have access to their reports.

[woundingchaney]

The question of could they survive as a niche console is a good a valid one (which seems where they are heading). I suppose they dont have to keep up if they want to be viewed that way. But what if the other consoles (with higher market share eventually choose to slice into their niche). I would say they have to keep up if for nothing else to stay alive. I dont know if there is or will be room for a niche console. Say Im a developer would I release my child oriented game for the rev with 15% market share or for the PS, Xbox with 50-60 percent market share, if there is money to be made for all 3 then so be it but what if the profits arent as large as Nin then they are viewed not as a niche console but just the underdog. Im not doubting their current console profitability put look at the support, recognition, and percentage console sales they have lost since the beginning of last gen.

[woundingchaney]

I can for Nintendo if we need it. I have access to their reports.


Whoa Whoa Whoa guys thats not my statement.


Ill say one thing you guys dont walk in an argument unprepared. :bigpimp:

[Viper]

You have to break it down further in niche markets, because they are...well just that ,divided.


If N owned 15% of the overall market but 95% of the 12 and under crowd, that's huge compared to the 5% that the others would have.


EDIT: Access to those statements are granted to media that use them for journalistic purposes. In that regard, we have access. Granted, I've used them before to prove points on the forums.

[Eidorian]

Whoa Whoa Whoa guys thats not my statement.


Ill say one thing you guys dont walk in an argument unprepared. :bigpimp:

http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~abarreno/orly_owl.jpg

[xbdestroya]

The question of could they survive as a niche console is a good a valid one (which seems where they are heading). I suppose they dont have to keep up if they want to be viewed that way. But what if the other consoles (with higher market share eventually choose to slice into their niche). I would say they have to keep up if for nothing else to stay alive. I dont know if there is or will be room for a niche console. Say Im a developer would I release my child oriented game for the rev with 15% market share or for the PS, Xbox with 50-60 percent market share, if there is money to be made for all 3 then so be it but what if the profits arent as large as Nin then they are viewed not as a niche console but just the underdog. Im not doubting their current console profitability put look at the support, recognition, and percentage console sales they have lost since the beginning of last gen.

Nah I'm not talking about thrid party support - forget about thrid party's entirely. I'm just talking about Nintendo systems running Nintendo software (in the cosnole space). The truth is the Apple Computers analogy has been used before, and there are reasons I feel it is innapropriate, but look at Nintendo like Apple; do you think Apple should drop out of what they do? And to tell you the truth, Nintendo makes more money than Apple also, so consider that as well when you talk about companies that should drop out of their industries.

[xbdestroya]

I can for Nintendo if we need it. I have access to their reports.

I've got access as well Viper - I'm just sick of posting profits for these companies over and over and over again on every forum I belong to. ;-)

In fact anyone can access them as they're available from free sites like hoovers.com and marketwatch.com as well.

I'm just not going through the hassle tonight. :smoke:

[woundingchaney]

Well guys Im reasonably stubborn here. I cant see Nin continuing to profit in the long haul. We can throw numbers around all night. We might as well agree to disagree. Excellent views and points, its not that Im not listening its just I dont see it the same way.


Good discussion. :laugh:

[xbdestroya]

Totally legit - we'll see what happens next gen regardless.

[Eidorian]

Posting profits and marketshares does get old very fast. The best thing to do is to just meet back here in 4-5 years. Ha...

[rpgamer_2k5]

Well guys Im reasonably stubborn here. I cant see Nin continuing to profit in the long haul. We can throw numbers around all night. We might as well agree to disagree. Excellent views and points, its not that Im not listening its just I dont see it the same way.


Good discussion. :laugh:

The gaming industry will probably have a whack future. :D Remember Microsoft has yet to attain a profit and they will initially sell at a loss. Nintendo will enter with the Revolution and gain. We really don't know much about the Revolution but it is obviously a console, it will be powerful, most likely matching the Xbox 360.

[Z]

in the general mindset of gamers, you will find false ideas considered as facts. for example, Boxis a direct challenge to PS2. another is Ninty is fallign.

[xbdestroya]

GC accounts for about 40% of profit so that is still $400 million a year in profits. Trust me, MS, and to a degree if Immersion wins the appeal, Blu-Ray and CELL are less than stellar, Sony, are at greater risk of not being around after this next generation than Nintendo.

Profit runs a business, not market share.


I wanted to get back to this also, just since we're here and all. :cheers:

I don't know that Cell will be too much of a financial burden to Sony. The R&D was *only* ~$600 million, and they would have needed to source a chip anyway regardless. The majority of the money has gone into the fabs, which can be used to churn out chips other than Cell if it totally flops, should be utilized for production decently for PS3 alone,and if worst comes to worst, can be sold to recoup the majority of the investment in them. So not too risky in my mind. In fact, I like the boldness of it all.

[Eidorian]

I'm more worried about Blu-Ray's current reading speeds at x1. If they can get a x2 drive into the PS3 I wouldn't be so worried.

x1 Blu-Ray = 6.75 MB/s
x16 DVD-ROM = 21.13MB/s

That'll be a painful bottleneck for HD content. Try burning a BD-ROM at those speeds. *sobs*

[xbdestroya]

I'm more worried about Blu-Ray's current reading speeds at x1. If they can get a x2 drive into the PS3 I wouldn't be so worried.

x1 Blu-Ray = 6.75 MB/s
x16 DVD-ROM = 21.13MB/s

That'll be a painful bottleneck for HD content. Try burning a BD-ROM at those speeds. *sobs*

I think that speed may be for blu-ray as it presently stands in Japan though, the recorder - and not for the blu-ray ROM x1 speed. I've got to re-check that.

360 will be at x12 DVD-ROM though, for noise reasons among others.

[Eidorian]

I think that speed may be for blu-ray as it presently stands in Japan though, the recorder - and not for the blu-ray ROM x1 speed. I've got to re-check that.

360 will be at x12 DVD-ROM though, for noise reasons among others.I made sure it was read speeds and not write speeds.

x12 DVD-ROM = 15.85MB/s

[xbdestroya]

True true, the correct BD-ROM speed indeed.

[Eidorian]

True true, the correct BD-ROM speed indeed.

http://www.blu-ray.com/faq/

Just to provide my proof...

1.7 How fast can you record a Blu-ray disc?

According to the Blu-ray Disc v1.0 specification, 1x speed will require a 36.5Mbps data transfer rate, which means it will take about 1 hour and 33 minutes to record 25GB. The Blu-ray Disc Association are currently working on the v2.0 specification, which will support 2x speed to cut the time it takes to copy content from one disc to another in half. In the future, the data transfer rate is expected to be raised to 8x or more.


3.2 What's the difference between Blu-ray and HD-DVD?
BD
Data transfer rate 54.0Mbps

BD-R (Write): 36.5 Mb/s = 4.5625 MB/s
BD-ROM (Read): 54.0 Mb/s = 6.75 MB/s

[xbdestroya]

LOL, Eidorian calm down - I know I know, I found the same thing. :smoke:

If I had found something different, I would have debated you, but since I didn't, I was conceding to you that you were right and I had been wrong.

[Eidorian]

LOL, Eidorian calm down - I know I know, I found the same thing. :smoke:

If I had found something different, I would have debated you, but since I didn't, I was conceding to you that you were right and I had been wrong.Yeah, it's ok. But I don't want other posters to get on my case about where I got my information from.

[Yo MaMa84]

Sony is about to controll 1% of my foot in their ass if they dont start doing something about Microsoft's growing power in the console world.

[Viper]

Put about 99% more thought into your posts before hitting submit please. Why do you fear Microsoft?

[Yo MaMa84]

Put about 99% more thought into your posts before hitting submit please. Why do you fear Microsoft?


Trust me i dont fear microsoft, but i dont represent every other PS gamer.

[Loc]

Well Microsoft is starting to cover up the flaws they had last round. They're starting to get Japanese Developers. Apparently more people like the Xbox Controller than the new PS3 controller. And you should fear microsoft, if they were to succeed just think how much gaming would change.

[xbdestroya]

Well I have a feeling it'll be like last gen for MS... basically one round of Japanese support, and then after it's clear the console's not going to succeed in Japan, back down to absolute minimal support. Granted they'll be starting at a higher point of J-dev support this go around. But seriously, I'm not seeing MS as coming from a position of strength in either Japan or Europe. In the US though, they do have momentum.

[Maya 5.0]

Im thinking that it wont be their last console but it seems to me that they will not be market leader for many xbox versions to come.

[xbdestroya]

Well, we'll see Maya - we'll see. :3eye:

[Loc]

You know they WILL eventually win, this generation they won't have as big a budget. But they do have an unlimited budget and they don't plan on backing out. In the end one of the companies just has to die. (hopes microsoft).

[Viper]

You know they WILL eventually win, this generation they won't have as big a budget. But they do have an unlimited budget and they don't plan on backing out. In the end one of the companies just has to die. (hopes microsoft).
No, they do not have an unlimited budget either.

The Xbox project is part of the Home and Entertainment division of MS. It's budget is based on it's revenue, not MS' whole revenue.

[woundingchaney]

MS represents the other side of console gaming. Im not trying to get in an East vs West debate, but that really is what it comes down to (at least it does for me). MS has brought many good things to console gaming. Competition is always important for any business market. I enjoy both the Sony and MS consoles, their is just too much to miss out on by only owning one of them. Sure people are going to have their favorites they always do, but to totally dismiss the other is ludicrous. I look for MS to gain a respectable amount of market share this generation (especially with their momentum going into this Holiday season). I dont think that they are going to reach or surpass Sony (in fact I would bet on it). The generation after this one however is going to be probably the closest race in console gaming since the 16 bit days.

[woundingchaney]

No, they do not have an unlimited budget either.

The Xbox project is part of the Home and Entertainment division of MS. It's budget is based on it's revenue, not MS' whole revenue.


With what MS has already dedicated to the Xbox and future Xbox console dont expect them to give up any time soon. I agree no there is not an unlimited budget, but their pockets are very very deep.

[xbdestroya]

You know they WILL eventually win, this generation they won't have as big a budget. But they do have an unlimited budget and they don't plan on backing out. In the end one of the companies just has to die. (hopes microsoft).

Yeah but the fact is Microsoft's budget to dedicate to XBox is NOT unlimited. Let's step outside consoles for a second to gain some perspective and go to search engines. How many millions/billions (they've already spent $1 billion on it - or is it $100 million; I'll clarify later!) do you think Microsoft is willing to spend in order to catch Google in the search engine race? Unlimited funds? They certainly have the deeper pockets, right?

I'm just saying, at some point things have to turn profitable; you just can't go on forever and ever.

[Viper]

If they fail to make profits with the 360, investors and stock holders will have the plug pulled.

[woundingchaney]

If they fail to make profits with the 360, investors and stock holders will have the plug pulled.


Gee guys as much as Im knocked for speculation in these forums, you guys arent much better. :laugh:

[xbdestroya]

Gee guys as much as Im knocked for speculation in these forums, you guys arent much better. :laugh:

LOL, well it's just the truth! :smoke:

Still I expect Microsoft's console business to turn profitable mid-gen so it's really a moot point; I think they'll stay in it. Now whether they keep trying in Japan after this gen or not is a different matter though; I could see them doing just North America and Europe after this. We'll see though, there's still a chance (a small small chance though) that 360 will catch on in Japan.

[woundingchaney]

The gaming industry will probably have a whack future. :D Remember Microsoft has yet to attain a profit and they will initially sell at a loss. Nintendo will enter with the Revolution and gain. We really don't know much about the Revolution but it is obviously a console, it will be powerful, most likely matching the Xbox 360.


If it matches the 360 would it then be the equal of the PS3???? Or are you one of those PS3 is unmatchable gift from the Lord people???? Your forgetting the US represents a very large market for gaming and MS is gaining by strides in the States and to some extent in Europe. It really looks like MS have their ducks in a row this go around and its going to be a thrilling ride.

[Viper]

Gee guys as much as Im knocked for speculation in these forums, you guys arent much better. :laugh:
I'm merely going by precedence of previous business corporate strategies.

No company has ever taken mulitple billion dollar losses on a side project and continued that product line....ever.


By calculations based on their current trends of sales and giving them a profit generation equal to that of Nintendo, it would take 13 years after the launch of the first Xbox to become a completely profitable project.

[woundingchaney]

I'm merely going by precedence of previous business corporate strategies.

No company has ever taken mulitple billion dollar losses on a side project and continued that product line....ever.


By calculations based on their current trends of sales and giving them a profit generation equal to that of Nintendo, it would take 13 years after the launch of the first Xbox to become a completely profitable project.


It was stated as a joke man :aim:-p: . Yes MS has taken a hit on the Xbox this current gen. Once again I just dont agree, MS is a successful company for a reason. They made mistakes this last gen no argument here but they also made headway as well. With what MS has sunk into the Xbox so far I couldnt even see shareholders shutting down the operation just yet or even after this next gen. Im willing to bet they turn over a good profit after the dust settles from this next gen (probably not equal to that of Sony but still leaps and bounds above this undertaking).

[Phryne Astynome]

I'm merely going by precedence of previous business corporate strategies.

No company has ever taken mulitple billion dollar losses on a side project and continued that product line....ever.


By calculations based on their current trends of sales and giving them a profit generation equal to that of Nintendo, it would take 13 years after the launch of the first Xbox to become a completely profitable project.

If Jack Welch (the brilliant CEO of General Electric) was running Microsoft, the Xbox division would have been cancelled a LOOOONG time ago. One thing I am always surprised about is how people assume the Xbox divison has an unlimited budget. This is not the case and if Microsoft diverted any more funds from their other divisions to fund the Xbox division, the conflicts that would occur would be VERY VERY ugly. Office politics are VERY VERY VERY ugly.

[Viper]

Indeed. Look what recently happened with Oldsmobile. It failed to make any more money so General Motors axed it completely.

Business is business, we have to get that into our mind sets.

[woundingchaney]

Yes its in my mind set. But look at the profits to be made off of gaming as an entertainment market. Do you think MS will admit defeat so readily. I think MS is looking for another cash cow other than Windows. Yes business is business but how many extremely successful endeavors took time to come to fruition.

[Viper]

Some took quite a while but extremely few took huge losses and recovered. Fewer still suffered losses that will close in on $5+ billion and survived.

Potential for growth is obviously there but if more is spent than gained, revenue, you have no profits and no project can live on that.

They will not break out of debt this generation. It will take a fully profitable Xbox 360 AND a fully profitable 3rd console to make any overal profit from the Xbox project.

[woundingchaney]

I dont doubt that one bit. Do you think MS thought they were going to see profits this gen. Being new to the console industry, releasing a year and a half later than Sony (their major competitor, releasing right next to Nin, building a euphoric online plan in an area that console gaming hasnt even proved itself in, having little to no relationship with developers, the list goes on and on. My guess is your belittling MS's bull-headedness on the subject. If they come strong this gen, I think more ground can be covered than your prediction (OPINION). Is Sony the wiser and more profitable player in the console industry, OH by all means YES, but MS is getting attention and turning the heads of consumers. Their overall plan this gen was basically $hit, but they did release great games and maybe even make us rethink the hardware and options we want in our consoles. I just dont look for them to make the same Freshmen mistakes again.

[Viper]

Their hardware and software were fine. Their business deals and XboxLive are what slammed them in the red. here they are not doing much to decrease the costs of running XboxLive and makign deals with nVidia again.

Like i said, I don't doubt they will get good revenue, it's profit they have a hard time gaining.

[Coded-Dude]

why did they make all those mistakes though, stuborness and a overconfidence in your product.
They thought just haveing LIVE and better hardware would set them apart from the rest.
But in doing so they made so many other mistakes....

[woundingchaney]

Their hardware and software were fine. Their business deals and XboxLive are what slammed them in the red. here they are not doing much to decrease the costs of running XboxLive and makign deals with nVidia again.

Like i said, I don't doubt they will get good revenue, it's profit they have a hard time gaining.


I dont think they are going to be able to decrease the costs of Live for some time. What I think they are planning on is for Live to take off the next gen (risky but not altogether a bad gamble). There agreement with Nvidia were poorly managed and that cost them alot, which is why they may have went with ATI this time around (imo). If Live takes of I dont see that much of a prob with profits (some of the new features alone are worth the price of the 360). Personally Live is the only reason I play my Xbox these days and if price drops if broadband internet service you might see a large percentage of gamers playing online. Of course these are all questionable strategies but not completely improbable.

[woundingchaney]

why did they make all those mistakes though, stuborness and a overconfidence in your product.
They thought just haveing LIVE and better hardware would set them apart from the rest.
But in doing so they made so many other mistakes....


Why did they make the mistakes, probably just that they were tredding on unproven and untested ground. Having the better hardware and having Live have set apart from the rest (somewhat), just most likely not to the extent they were hoping.

[Xer0]

Indeed. Look what recently happened with Oldsmobile. It failed to make any more money so General Motors axed it completely.



Very sad too, yet they let Saturn live?! This is why GM keeps on losing money and market share but this is the wrong place to discus this :D

On topic: MS better make money with the X360. The original Xbox was from the get go a money losing operation and thats completely fine because it was always ment to put it in a favorable position in the market place, not make MS a ton of money. However the X360 is here to make money of what the Xbox started. If MS doesnt even break even on the X360 (Not the whole Xbox project) then i doubt that another one will come out. However come to think of it, thats not really on topic either is it? Bah i say!

Really on topic: I dont know about 61% market share, seems very steep to me. I give them 50 at most but you never know, their marketing is amazing after all.

[Coded-Dude]

the ground was already tredded over, its not like MS was the first conosle maker ever, they have a long history odf consoles they could have researched better before jumping in the shallow end head first.....just my opinion though

[woundingchaney]

the ground was already tredded over, its not like MS was the first conosle maker ever, they have a long history odf consoles they could have researched better before jumping in the shallow end head first.....just my opinion though


Oh yes much better research should have been implemented.

Wisdom comes with experience grasshopper. :cheers:

[Phryne Astynome]

If Microsoft wants a chance in Japan, they should fire everyone in management in the Xbox division (including J Allard and etc.) and replace them with some fresh blood. I don't know how anyone can excuse a five billion dollar loss. Much of the loss was unnecessary and haphazard. That five billion dollar loss should have been a five billion dollar profit. In the hands of a brilliant management it would have been a profit. Look at Carlos Ghosn and Nissan if you don't believe me.

I don't know how anyone could say "it was their first console launch" as an excuse. The PS1 was also Sony's first console and it crushed Nintendo and was profitable. The PSP was also Sony's first handheld and it put a dent on Nintendo's market share. Also the excuse that "Microsoft launched 20 months later" is not valid as well. Nintendo launched the SNES two years after the Genesis and it crushed Sega as well. Furthermore, Microsoft also lost the Korean market (yes, I know it is small but it is important to point out) which is very friendly to PC games and online.

The management is to blame for every one of Xbox's problems. The disaster in Japan should not have happened; they should have put a dent on Sony by taking advantage of Sony's weaknesses. They should not have lost the US or Europe that badly as well.

The Xbox management is absolutely pathetic. The Xbox deserved better. J Allard is a disgrace to managers and businessmen, he should be fired. It is even sadder that Nintendo is turning a higher profit than the Xbox division when it has a slightly lower market share and management issues. Because Microsoft has not made many changes in their management I don't think they will put a significant dent in Japan or Europe and I don't think they will beat Sony in America. I know I sounded harsh but this is the truth, their management is what is holding them back.

[rpgamer_2k5]

If it matches the 360 would it then be the equal of the PS3???? Or are you one of those PS3 is unmatchable gift from the Lord people???? Your forgetting the US represents a very large market for gaming and MS is gaining by strides in the States and to some extent in Europe. It really looks like MS have their ducks in a row this go around and its going to be a thrilling ride.

Remember the "It's not about power" comment by J Allard. This is enough to tell us that the PS3 will be packing more power. Btw, you sound like those individuals that feel that MS is some technological messiah. Lets face it they have NEVER attained the profit with the Xbox yet you expect MS to be the only firm to make such a huge stride. It looks like MS is trying to release their Xbox first because they don't have a technological edge. History has told us several times that those that release first and confronted by more advanced consoles.

[rpgamer_2k5]

[I appologize for the double post.]

Yes its in my mind set. But look at the profits to be made off of gaming as an entertainment market. Do you think MS will admit defeat so readily. I think MS is looking for another cash cow other than Windows. Yes business is business but how many extremely successful endeavors took time to come to fruition.

MS profits are not just coming from Windows, we have their application like which serves personal users, businesses, institutions and the military. The US get huge money licensing various server technologies. The gaming sector will not even match those sectors. If MS fails again with the Xbox then expect to leave the market, just like Sega and the rest.

[Added Later]
Phryne Astynome: Excellent post, you deserve a rep point. The way MS has been operating in the gaming sector is atrocious and I really don't expect them to do better. It looks like MS is not being innovative at all and I really don't see it trumping the PS3 or even the Revolution technologically. When Sony entered the market, the PSX came after the 3D0 and Saturn and yet won the gaming market. MS is expecting an early launch will win them the market which is simply a joke. The technology in the Xbox 360 will be very expensive in 2005. If the Xbox 360 matches the other two, a well executed early 2006 launch will prove FAR more effective.

[woundingchaney]

Remember the "It's not about power" comment by J Allard. This is enough to tell us that the PS3 will be packing more power. Btw, you sound like those individuals that feel that MS is some technological messiah. Lets face it they have NEVER attained the profit with the Xbox yet you expect MS to be the only firm to make such a huge stride. It looks like MS is trying to release their Xbox first because they don't have a technological edge. History has told us several times that those that release first and confronted by more advanced consoles.


I sound nothing like that if anything Im more knowledgeable on the MS side of the console war (which is why Im here to check on PS3 news). Nearly every statement I have made is neither pro Sony or pro MS. Lets face it you sound like a fanboy that is attacking me on my view of MS stand point. The debate works like this you make a point I make a point. If the technological edge truly means that much to you then by all means bask in the glory of the Cell and RSX it is an impressive design. This history lesson your pushing on me just doesnt buy it in this next console release (imo). Are you expecting me to just say "Hey your right man Sony is a console God and MS is nothing but moronic gaming nonsense." Sorry cant do it, I enjoy gaming on both consoles and dont share the same views as you. Im allowed to disagree with you. Just because Im not completely agreeing with your reasoning doesnt mean their isnt reasoning in my statements.

[woundingchaney]

If Microsoft wants a chance in Japan, they should fire everyone in management in the Xbox division (including J Allard and etc.) and replace them with some fresh blood. I don't know how anyone can excuse a five billion dollar loss. Much of the loss was unnecessary and haphazard. That five billion dollar loss should have been a five billion dollar profit. In the hands of a brilliant management it would have been a profit. Look at Carlos Ghosn and Nissan if you don't believe me.

I don't know how anyone could say "it was their first console launch" as an excuse. The PS1 was also Sony's first console and it crushed Nintendo and was profitable. The PSP was also Sony's first handheld and it put a dent on Nintendo's market share. Also the excuse that "Microsoft launched 20 months later" is not valid as well. Nintendo launched the SNES two years after the Genesis and it crushed Sega as well. Furthermore, Microsoft also lost the Korean market (yes, I know it is small but it is important to point out) which is very friendly to PC games and online.

The management is to blame for every one of Xbox's problems. The disaster in Japan should not have happened; they should have put a dent on Sony by taking advantage of Sony's weaknesses. They should not have lost the US or Europe that badly as well.

The Xbox management is absolutely pathetic. The Xbox deserved better. J Allard is a disgrace to managers and businessmen, he should be fired. It is even sadder that Nintendo is turning a higher profit than the Xbox division when it has a slightly lower market share and management issues. Because Microsoft has not made many changes in their management I don't think they will put a significant dent in Japan or Europe and I don't think they will beat Sony in America. I know I sounded harsh but this is the truth, their management is what is holding them back.


Has an American console ever been tried in Japan??? I think the main reason why MS did so poorly in Japan is because the console doesnt support the game genres the Japanese seem to enjoy most. I dont think MS is going to beat Sony in America, Europe, or Japan I do think they will gain ground in all sections stated. Yes last gen management was very poorly done (no argument). I think it is interesting how your comparing Nissan with MS, I realize your point, but not the analogy I would have used. Yes their managment was holding them back but look at say the recent year or two. Theyre not going to climb out of the red still having to pay for great mistakes made early in the consoles life, but they are gaining momentum (I think thats clear to see) maybe just maybe they can turn things around or of course we could all just scream loyalty to Sony and miss out on any other gaming opportunities out there. You guys seem to believe that MS is doomed no matter what marketing or other strategys they incorporate, sorry I dont agree with that I think there is room for a very successful MS console (I think maybe Nin might be pushed further from the limelight). Does anyone have percentages of market share that Europe,US, and Japan represent to the overall game purchasing consumers.

[Phryne Astynome]

Has an American console ever been tried in Japan??? I think the main reason why MS did so poorly in Japan is because the console doesnt support the game genres the Japanese seem to enjoy most. I dont think MS is going to beat Sony in America, Europe, or Japan I do think they will gain ground in all sections stated. Yes last gen management was very poorly done (no argument). I think it is interesting how your comparing Nissan with MS, I realize your point, but not the analogy I would have used. Yes their managment was holding them back but look at say the recent year or two. Theyre not going to climb out of the red still having to pay for great mistakes made early in the consoles life, but they are gaining momentum (I think thats clear to see) maybe just maybe they can turn things around or of course we could all just scream loyalty to Sony and miss out on any other gaming opportunities out there. You guys seem to believe that MS is doomed no matter what marketing or other strategys they incorporate, sorry I dont agree with that I think there is room for a very successful MS console (I think maybe Nin might be pushed further from the limelight).

I was definitely harsh on Microsoft and agree with you. I do think they will make gains in the other territories besides Japan. You should know that I said the Xbox deserved better, showing that I thought it was a wonderful console. I don't think it is doomed at all. But, they really need to change the management especially in East Asia and Europe. It is sad to see a good console perform poorly in those territories. My comparison with Microsoft and Nissan was to emphasize how a good management can help out a company. Nissan was in very big trouble before Ghosn came and within two years he helped the company make a profit. It was basically to show that the Xbox could have make a profit this gen if it was under a strong management even under incredible odds. I can tell you are a fan of the Xbox so if my post came out sounding like a Sony fanatic or what you guys call "fanboy" I apologize. But the management is indeed at the crux of the problem and Microsoft has to address this. I hate seeing an idiotic management getting away with those losses. Also, it is nice that you agreed with me that those losses were not necessary.

[rpgamer_2k5]

I sound nothing like that if anything Im more knowledgeable on the MS side of the console war (which is why Im here to check on PS3 news).

I really don't see you as one of the users giving me a reality check on the Xbox 360. I'm quite aware of the Xbox 360 development, people are just over-reacting or either trying to maintain a 'neutral' angle.

Nearly every statement I have made is neither pro Sony or pro MS. Lets face it you sound like a fanboy that is attacking me on my view of MS stand point.

I am not going to say I'm 'neutral' because no one is. Neither will I deny that I am a fanboy because I don't care of these minor terms. There are different fanboys, those that are sound or those that draw ideas from their posterior. I will end that there. So when you posted false dogma against my Revolution, you were stepping out of line. You predictions were not even based on previous trends or facts, it was just based on what you think and we'll never have a constructive argument if you have such a mindset.

Lets face it you definitely are a fanboy from the Xbox camp. :D

The debate works like this you make a point I make a point. If the technological edge truly means that much to you then by all means bask in the glory of the Cell and RSX it is an impressive design. This history lesson your pushing on me just doesnt buy it in this next console release (imo). Are you expecting me to just say "Hey your right man Sony is a console God and MS is nothing but moronic gaming nonsense." Sorry cant do it, I enjoy gaming on both consoles and dont share the same views as you. Im allowed to disagree with you. Just because Im not listening to your reasoning doesnt mean their isnt reasoning to my statements.

Woah, am I that assertive? Ah well, humans have different perceptions so I won't even bother.

Maybe I'm paranoid but I find lines that draws away from the central issue is a red herring especially when it pertaining to one's neutrality. Others will determine if you're neutral. If I'm being biased, others will definitely torpedo my posts.

Anyways like I said before, I am basing my prediction on previous trends. The consoles that release first usually lag in the technology front. The Playstation was released by Sony yet it was inferior to the N64. I bring this up because Sony is a technology giant and had a greater budget than Nintendo. However in the end, the console from Nintendo had more pretty graphics. Moreover J Allard's 'power isn't everything' statement does tell us that MS isn't going to be the king of technology this time. Lets not forget about fixed-point ops > floating point ops rubbish. Even 5 months is a good amount of time for Sony to modify their specifications. Much of the Xbox 360 specification will have to be released very soon. Sony and Nintendo will be keeping an eye in order to better MS's console technology-wise.

[woundingchaney]

I was definitely harsh on Microsoft and agree with you. I do think they will make gains in the other territories besides Japan. You should know that I said the Xbox deserved better, showing that I thought it was a wonderful console. I don't think it is doomed at all. But, they really need to change the management especially in East Asia and Europe. It is sad to see a good console perform poorly in those territories. My comparison with Microsoft and Nissan was to emphasize how a good management can help out a company. Nissan was in very big trouble before Ghosn came and within two years he helped the company make a profit. It was basically to show that the Xbox could have make a profit this gen if it was under a strong management even under incredible odds. I can tell you are a fan of the Xbox so if my post came out sounding like a Sony fanatic or what you guys call "fanboy" I apologize. But the management is indeed at the crux of the problem and Microsoft has to address this. I hate seeing an idiotic management getting away with those losses. Also, it is nice that you agreed with me that those losses were not necessary.


Yes well there has been changes in the recent MS management. They might not have been as drastic as what you are looking for but management has been changed. Really the last 2 year run has been quite impressive as far as first and third party support coupled with sales, and even great leaps one xbox live. So I would assume they are going to stick with current management at least a while after launch. Im not trying to provide apologies or explanations for Xbox less than stellar console start. It was indeed pathetic but, to totally discredit all other gains after the fact is kind of looking at the world through rose tinted glasses.

[Phryne Astynome]

Yes well there has been changes in the recent MS management. They might not have been as drastic as what you are looking for but management has been changed. Really the last 2 year run has been quite impressive as far as first and third party support coupled with sales, and even great leaps one xbox live. So I would assume they are going to stick with current management at least a while after launch. Im not trying to provide apologies or explanations for Xbox less than stellar console start. It was indeed pathetic but, to totally discredit all other gains after the fact is kind of looking at the world through rose tinted glasses.

My idea of changing the management would have been to fire everyone in the Xbox division and replace them with management consultants from McKinsey, Bain, Boston Consulting Group, and Booz Allen. Elitist? yes I know, considering J Allard only went to Boston University but that would have been my idea. I know I sound crazy.

[xbdestroya]

Great points Phryne about the management at Microsoft. If they'd just taken things a little more seriously from the outset, instead of viewing it as just another industry they could dominate, they probably would have thought a little more carefully about the agreements they signed with Intel and NVidia, might have paid a little more attention to the history of consoles, their successes and failures, instead of feeling that they could ignore that and do it 'their way' and it would all work out.

Well, they've learned that lesson.

I guess it's just left to see how they market it in territories like Japan, not that I think it will do them much.

But I do think XBox is starting to enjoy a positive halo effect in the US. If they can continue to ride that wave... well, the ball will be in Sony's court to defend their US lines. Ironically it's like the entire situation has switched, and it's the hardcore gamers who are talking up PS3 now whereas all the employees of the various game shops, the regular guy walking aroung, the parent at the dinner table - all of them are sort of thinking XBox is the system right now.

Oh well we'll see where it goes but yeah, management has definitely been key in preventing XBox from reaching it's market potential.

[woundingchaney]

My idea of changing the management would have been to fire everyone in the Xbox division and replace them with management consultants from McKinsey, Bain, Boston Consulting Group, and Booz Allen. Elitist? yes I know, considering J Allard only went to Boston University but that would have been my idea. I know I sound crazy.


Yeah that may be a bit excessive.

[xbdestroya]

My idea of changing the management would have been to fire everyone in the Xbox division and replace them with management consultants from McKinsey, Bain, Boston Consulting Group, and Booz Allen. Elitist? yes I know, considering J Allard only went to Boston University but that would have been my idea. I know I sound crazy.

Oh no but wait - the consultants!

That could just as easily have turned out to be $6 billion in losses then; five from operations and another billion in consulting fees. :susp:

[Phryne Astynome]

Oh no but wait - the consultants!

That could just as easily have turned out to be $6 billion in losses then; five from operations and another billion in consulting fees. :susp:

LOL I was joking about that. Consultants aren't very reliable for anything except for those management jargon that they learn in b-school (if anyone is a management consultant here I am joking).

[Viper]

:susp:

I'm a Senior Consultant for two of the sites here.

[xbdestroya]

:susp:

I'm a Senior Consultant for two of the sites here.

LOL, that's hilarious! But you know we're not talking about you Viper - you clearly have an interest in the site beyond a job you were hired to do. Anyone here can see that plainly, not that I know the history really of the E-mpire crew before the PSINext acquisition.

Funny story though Phryne, while we're talking about consultants. Carlyle at their recent team building event in DC hired no less than two consulting firms in order to plan the activities for them. I mean, seriously this is a company that would do well to expand it's HR department, which is seriously over-extended.

Or of course, so I hear... :smoke:

(Consultants to set up a scavenger hunt? C'mon people, let's get it together!)

[Dwhitten]

They own that much of the market because they make their systems to break.

[woundingchaney]

They own that much of the market because they make their systems to break.


yeah Ive had 3 PS and Im on my second xbox but that damn gamecube is indestructable. I may go through more consoles being a smoker, Im not sure exactly how that would reflect on my consoles life span (yeah yeah yeah I know how it relfects on my life span :aim>:O: )




PS love those smileys

[hell0]

They own that much of the market because they make their systems to break.
OloLL I'VE NEVAR HERD OF DAT 1 B4!! :monster:

[Phryne Astynome]

LOL, that's hilarious! But you know we're not talking about you Viper - you clearly have an interest in the site beyond a job you were hired to do. Anyone here can see that plainly, not that I know the history really of the E-mpire crew before the PSINext acquisition.

Funny story though Phryne, while we're talking about consultants. Carlyle at their recent team building event in DC hired no less than two consulting firms in order to plan the activities for them. I mean, seriously this is a company that would do well to expand it's HR department, which is seriously over-extended.

Or of course, so I hear... :smoke:

(Consultants to set up a scavenger hunt? C'mon people, let's get it together!)

How insulting! Carlyle is using them just for that? LOL but Carlyle is tiny so I guess they wouldn't want to waste their time for that. I don't see how hard it is to recruit a guy, all you have to do is ask if they went to Wharton or McIntire for undergrad and ask if they worked at Lazard or Evercore and boom they are hired if they answer yes to both of those. Of course I am making it sound simpler but that's usually the drill, target schools with target jobs. Anyways a little on topic: wonder if McKinsey will ever write up a report in their Quarterly about the console industry, it would be interesting to read if they do since I am a little tired of reading the reports from the no-name firms like Strategy Analytics.

[xbdestroya]

How insulting! Carlyle is using them just for that? LOL but Carlyle is tiny so I guess they wouldn't want to waste their time for that. I don't see how hard it is to recruit a guy, all you have to do is ask if they went to Wharton or McIntire for undergrad and ask if they worked at Lazard or Evercore and boom they are hired if they answer yes to both of those. Of course I am making it sound simpler but that's usually the drill, target schools with target jobs.

Well you've got their target schools down perfectly, that's for sure!

Anyways a little on topic: wonder if McKinsey will ever write up a report in their Quarterly about the console industry, it would be interesting to read if they do since I am a little tired of reading the reports from the no-name firms like Strategy Analytics.

Good question - that'd be interesting to see. My understanding is a couple of console-related case studies come out of Harvard; granted past-tense rather than forward-looking like McKinsey would be, but still interesting. There's no doubt that the five-year product cycle puts pressure on the console makers to get it right in a way that just doesn't really exist in many other tech-related industries.

[woundingchaney]

Well you've got their target schools down perfectly, that's for sure!



Good question - that'd be interesting to see. My understanding is a couple of console-related case studies come out of Harvard; granted past-tense rather than forward-looking like McKinsey would be, but still interesting. There's no doubt that the five-year product cycle puts pressure on the console makers to get it right in a way that just doesn't really exist in many other tech-related industries.


The five year cycle to me relieves as much pressure as it does applies it. Suppose they didnt get the tech right (Sega Genesis, PS2, etc) that doenst stop developers from programming or consumers from purchasing. Really as far as tech goes the console industry seems to be very forgiving, it really means little more than bragging rights to the specifc fanboy. The cycle gives enough time to carefully and strategically plan the next gaming step. I would almost like to see a smaller turn around (4 years) especially with the way hardware and software tends to advance (thats just a personal statement I have no idea if the average consumer would support a 4 year cycle). This generation for example gaming on consoles is severally limited when compared to gaming on PCs and has been for about the last two years (their struggling to bring old pc games to the xbox which is the newest console with the most raw power and a pc architecture).

[xbdestroya]

The five year cycle to me relieves as much pressure as it does applies it. Suppose they didnt get the tech right (Sega Genesis, PS2, etc) that doenst stop developers from programming or consumers from purchasing. Really as far as tech goes the console industry seems to be very forgiving, it really means little more than bragging rights to the specifc fanboy. The cycle gives enough time to carefully and strategically plan the next gaming step. I would almost like to see a smaller turn around (4 years) especially with the way hardware and software tends to advance (thats just a personal statement I have no idea if the average consumer would support a 4 year cycle). This generation for example gaming on consoles is severally limited when compared to gaming on PCs and has been for about the last two years (their struggling to bring old pc games to the xbox which is the newest console with the most raw power and a pc architecture).

I see where you're coming from, but I wouldn't point to the Genesis and PS2 as examples of systems that got it 'wrong.' More like the Saturn and the N64. I agree that once the actual console has launched, there is a sort of span of breathing room afforded to the technical side of things, but when it comes to the design of a new console, it's hard knowing that every decision you make, you're going to have to live with for a length of roughly five years. But we can agree not to see eye to eye on it and that's ok.

I personally wouldn't want a shorter console lifecycle however, and I know the devs wouldn't, as even as it stands now some games are multi-year projects.

[woundingchaney]

I see where you're coming from, but I wouldn't point to the Genesis and PS2 as examples of systems that got it 'wrong.' More like the Saturn and the N64. I agree that once the actual console has launched, there is a sort of span of breathing room afforded to the technical side of things, but when it comes to the design of a new console, it's hard knowing that every decision you make, you're going to have to live with for a length of roughly five years. But we can agree not to see eye to eye on it and that's ok.

I personally wouldn't want a shorter console lifecycle however, and I know the devs wouldn't, as even as it stands now some games are multi-year projects.


Yes the Saturn and the N64 would have been better examples (although the Saturn wasnt without its merits). Console design is really a big gamble, but whether good design or bad money and sales will bring development. I dont look for the 5 year life cycle to change at all (if anything I look for it to increase to a possible 6). Multi year projects are killing devs, especially with the shift in architecture, sure I would like to think that programming tools and the like could reduce this but I cant see it happening not with consumer expectations of AAA titles. Look at the expectations already of the next gen Killzone and Halo. Its almost getting ridiculously difficult for the devs to keep up with the wants of gamers on a reasonable time frame.