What are the chances Sony will be #1 easily next console race?

[=NukeBlaze=]

Not very good from current information rumblings and market trends.


When PS2 launched, its sales were fed in huge force by three main things. New games, backwards comptability, and DVD playback.

Now, from current estimenets from developers...It takes 3 times the $$$ to create a title on the PS2 than does the Xbox. Why company choose the PS2 though is that they make that moey up since the install base is so large. The operating system which run the PS2 is said to be developed by the same people whom created the first one. Now if this is true and developemnt costs are still high and complicated...You can see that companies may choose other consoles from the get go.

In reguard to the DVD playback. The PS2 got approve purchase from parrent becuase of DVD playback. DVD was the new wave of Video and people wanted to have means to play it. The PS2 answered this along with game. With a lack of a new medium...The PS3 will not sell as quickly at start.

In reguards to Backward compatablitly: There will be a limitation to how far they can emulate other console lines within the same company before it become not very cost effective and bogs down on the system. IF backwards compatability is offered for the PS3, the price of the console with be sucked into making it that way, as well as the added note that the Sony console line will use the same controller for over 10 years.

In reguards to the Games : The PS2 huge preliminary sales were due to hype. The Games the PS2 offered in it first line up were So-So and lacking graphicly, so one must assume people first bought becuase of the DVD and PSOne features, in addition to later knowing there would be games. Without a strong first line up, the PS3 could and wil be in some hot water if new consoles from MS and Nintendo are launched with strong games.

With the other console started sales before teh time of Sony, they stand a chance to take developers away from Sony if they see that one console appeals to them more that the current PS3 build.


An interesting note about Xbox. M$ uses Direct X technoloyg in the Xbox which is fimilar with developer becuase it has been arond a while on PC. With the Xbox's fimilar development kits vs Nintendo and Sony proporitey systems....Will some developers go to the gree side to save themselves money in leaning the new software?

[Michael Bluth]

It's hard to predict, since one would have thought all those NES/SNES users would've jumped to the N64 and then to the GameCube, but such was not the case. It's more of a "we'll have to wait and see"-type deal.

[=NukeBlaze=]

I know that it will be amatter of wait and see for the final result. the point was that Sony in missing some of the elements for overwhelming sucess it had last console launch.

[[[tavis]]]

ps2 sucks bawl sack, graphically, quality and controller wise it's in last place

[Dark_Cloud]

I think Microsoft will have the edge in the next gen consoles. They are just so damn rich.

[Peter]

I think its got a fiarly good chance. If it contionues to be backwards-compatable, and continue with some of its major franchises, it will be #1 again. People dont like change.

[The Dude]

I thought that ps3 will use cell processing or something, were it can draw power from other ps3's around?

I think they have %50 chance of keeping the market.

[Michael Bluth]

I think its got a fiarly good chance. If it contionues to be backwards-compatable, and continue with some of its major franchises, it will be #1 again. People dont like change.

Only the hardcore RPG fans will want to play PSOne games. Nintendo is going to have a problem next-gen if they want to make their system backwards compadible, as they should go to normal disc size.

[smellslikenintendospirit]

100% duh??

[=NukeBlaze=]

It will cost them to keep the Playstation line backwards compatable.

With cell "Tech"...Your PS3 may be able to draw processing power from others..But you would need a strong broadband online network for it to work. Sony just does not have anything that resembles Xbox Live as of now. Maybe they will sel it as..."YOUR GAMES WILL LOOK BETTER THAT EVER BEFORE IF YOU GO ONLINE!" It would be crap if you needed 2 ps3s to play a game though. LOL system requirements on PS3 games may come in mutiples of console. "You will need "This" many PS3s to play Final Fantasy 14".

[Hobo Moe]

Only the hardcore RPG fans will want to play PSOne games. Nintendo is going to have a problem next-gen if they want to make their system backwards compadible, as they should go to normal disc size.


Doesn't the Panisonic Q play both normal disks and the small ones?

[Prince]

Sony will be #1 next generation.

They have all the third party support its that simple. Even if their machine is harder to develop for, 3rd parties will still stay because thats where they get most of their money. Same thing with Ps2 - its the hardest to dev for but its still #1.

[Generic Wheaties]

ps2 sucks bawl sack, graphically, quality and controller wise it's in last place

Quit being such a fanboy, in graphics ps2 stays alright with compeiting imo (I seriously don't know how gamecubes graphics differ from Ps2s) The controller won many awards, gamecubes contoller is uhh.. somthing, its alright but I'm not used to it.

Getting to the threads question imo Sony will blow away competion, from looking at the Gamecube it looks sort of uhh desperate with all the price drops and the free game with a purchase of the console, don't get me wrong but that rocks, but on their side i don't think its helping out a whole lot.

[Prince]

http://www.scstatefair.org/images/misc/blue-ribbon.jpghttp://www.bombayelectronics.com/vg/ps2.gif

[Michael Bluth]

Doesn't the Panisonic Q play both normal disks and the small ones?


http://www.lik-sang.com/info.php?category=0&products_id=1575&


Take a gander at the price tag for that baby.

[[[tavis]]]

Only the hardcore RPG fans will want to play PSOne games. Nintendo is going to have a problem next-gen if they want to make their system backwards compadible, as they should go to normal disc size.



put two different readers in the cube2...........i'll pay an extra 50 for that, plus the cube is so small i don't mind keeping it out

[=NukeBlaze=]

Just becuase they might used a normal disc size..Does not mean it will not run the small discs. Just about all basic CD drives can read both sizes of disks.

The problem the compaies will have keeping everything backwards compatable will be in the hardware that makes the system itself. It may be too much of a burden if more than just software is required to keep everything quite and funcitioning without jacking up the manufacturing cost.

[The Dude]

I dont mind paying a little bit more for backwards compatable in the next Nintendo system. And is anyone sick of the "playstation" name besides me? I hope adding a number to a systems name doesnt cetch on.

Gamecube 2, xbox2? *shudder*

[Hobo Moe]

Yeah, Phantagram. I know the price tag is big for the Q, but I thought that was only because of all the extra shit it has with it too. It wouldn't be that much more expensive to just add a CD drive for the next-gen Nintendo console so that it can play both, would it? I really don't know. I know regular CD drives on a PC can do it.

[Barbooski]

Quit being such a fanboy, in graphics ps2 stays alright with compeiting imo (I seriously don't know how gamecubes graphics differ from Ps2s) The controller won many awards, gamecubes contoller is uhh.. somthing, its alright but I'm not used to it.

Getting to the threads question imo Sony will blow away competion, from looking at the Gamecube it looks sort of uhh desperate with all the price drops and the free game with a purchase of the console, don't get me wrong but that rocks, but on their side i don't think its helping out a whole lot.


Utter hipocracy.
Don't tell me you cant tell the difference between the Cube and PS2 graphically(I'm not gonna compare screenshots here since it depends on the developer). Also Sony is the only one not bundling. Have you ever heard of Xbox?

And I personally LOATHE the PS2 controller. The GCN controller is nicely molded to my hand. On the other hand, the PS2 controller looks and feels like it was thrown together in five minutes. I don't care how many awards it got. I still hate it.

Acually I think I will compare screenshots, but as farely as I can.
Tell me what you think is the best looking PS2 game and I'll dig up some screens of MP and that game.

BTW you probably can't tell the difference because you play a game on PS2 and then its port on GCN.

Oh, and Nukeblaze you forgot another reason PS2 got on top. It came out half a year (correct me if I'm wrong) earlier than any of its competitors.

[smellslikenintendospirit]

The PS2 is an awesome console. By far the most games, best rated games, controller is always praised in IGN's head-to-head, and the graphics and sound quality aren't that much worse than cube or box.

Personally, I bought GameCube and I have never once regretted that decision, but PS2 is just as good in my opinion.

[Barbooski]

I know I just felt like bitching ;)

[Prince]

Also Sony is the only one not bundling.

"The PlayStation®2 Combo Pack which provides $60 of free merchandise and software with each hardware purchase. Available for the first time, the PlayStation 2 Combo Pack is a special offer that includes the PlayStation 2 console, Network Adaptor (Ethernet/modem) (for PlayStation®2), and a copy of the online-enabled game, ATV Offroad Fury™ 2, all for $199 suggested retail price (SRP)."



That looks like a bundle to me...

[Barbooski]

Didn't ever hear about that. Well then everyone is bundling.

BTW Radio shack is bundling like 10 things together with a Xbox for $200.

[Notedog]

Ill get mine there then

[Viper]

What are the chances it will EASILY be number #1? Very slim. Both Nintendo and MS have major plans to cut into Sonys market share and Sony themselves are getting so cocky (ahem Nintendo...you remember that?) that they may find themselves in a console war without preparing for battle.

[Prince]

Chances of them easily being #1 is 100%, because of their third party support. They've always built their consoles around 3rd party support..CD's > Cartridges, DVD's > mini disks. Cheaper liscensing/royalty fees > expensive liscensing/royalty fees.

They have full support from EA, Square, Sega, Capcom, Konami, Namco, Rockstar, and all the other big publishers and developers behind them by default...

[Viper]

You are giving Sony far too much credit an not enough to Nintendo and MS. For them to EASILY be number 1 (have more than 50% of the home console market share), Nintendo and MS will have to blunder badly.

Launching early gave Sony such a huge market lead to start with that it was easy to maintain number 1 because of the developer/buyer spiral. Nintendo is predicted at launching first in the next round of home consoles and if they address their current issues without creating new faults, the spiral may work for them the same way it did for Sony.

[smellslikenintendospirit]

Like I said before in this thread, Sony will be first next generation, definitely. With PSP selling millions of consoles and PS2 still maintaining so much strong support from fans, developers, publishers, etc., the brand name is incredibly strong. Nintendo will put up a fierce fight in Japan and Microsoft will do their best in US + Europe, but unless Sony pulls an N64, they've got the industry to themselves.

Sony makes consoles cheaply too, since they have the ability to manufacture some parts themselves.

[Viper]

My point is they will have to fight a bit more to remain number 1 and fight hard as hell to be number 1 with a sizable market share.

[Prince]

Your giving MS and Nintendo far too much credit. Sony won't fuck up like Nintendo did. They are on the ball and they know what gamers want and what the 3rd parties want.

Launching first doesn't mean shit especially since it gives the competition more time to capitalize on any weakness. Look at the Dreamcast, it launched first but nobody gave a damn and they all wanted a PS2 instead.

[Viper]

Your giving MS and Nintendo far too much credit. Sony won't fuck up
**Cough**Cell Pocessor**Cough*Cough**

[dn03]

i would have to say 50/50

[smellslikenintendospirit]

The cell processor is a brilliant idea. They develop the chip, manufacture it, and save big time on console production costs. Don't have to deal with third parties like ATI. Sony could be trying to force third party developers to create their games to run most effectively on Sony's chip, reducing the chances of ports. It makes perfect sense. Sony knows MS will just stuff a PC into a box, and they'll use it against them for sure.

[Prince]

I don't see how the cell processor is a fuck up... It will probably make development harder, but nobody left PS2 because it was hard to develop for.

PS3 will have the biggest userbase with most potential for 3rd party game sales so the devs will all flock to it anyway.

[Viper]

From a few developers standpoint, the cell processor will be incredibaly difficult to develop for, far more so than any other console ever. This being the case, only larger studios will have enough people and resources to make a timely game and if they have to divert all their resources and people into one console because of the difficulties of producing on such a chip, they may not stick around long after that first game.

If it takes 75% of a major studios people and resources to make 1 game and the game sells avgeragly - 500,000 - what kind of profit margin are they making? Very little. Now if they develop 3 games at a time on the next Nintendo and MS using all their people and resources and all 3 sell averagely - 500,000 - or maybe 1 sells good - 1,000,000 - that's a much greater profit margin and as we should all know by now, this is a business of money if they feel they won't make any money, they will not support that console no matter how big it's name is. Nintendos own past has told us that name recognition is not why a studio makes games for a specific console.


EDIT: Oh yeah, it may not be ready until 2007 at the latest. I don't care how much more powerful it is, with 2 machines with a very strong userbase (Nintendo and MS) well established before 2007, they will have a near insurmountable lead.

[TheGreenElf]

************************************************** ****
People, I'm clearing something up....disc size DOESN'T matter (as long as they are regular DVD size or smaller).
You can put mini disks in your comp and it'll play them (assuming they work for the drive).
************************************************** ****
Edit: For your question, I don't think Xbox will be in first, because of the probably 12 people I know with one, all EXCEPT 2 of them say its good. The other 10 all say it sucks and they can't believe they bought it. I don't think it's that bad but I d/k. I hope Gamecube is in first but unless PS2 releases close enough to GC they won't be in first...like Viper said, they aren't going to release a 3rd system with the sales of the current 2 still so high.

[=NukeBlaze=]

As I said before...THe cell processor could be a curse or blessing. IF you had to log on to Sony's "Magicly not Here" Online plan to draw number crunching power from other PS3s to play Final Fantasy 15, then this could prove to be very useful in making there online network grow like a weed. They might make as well direct links to both PS3 console so that you can link them together for dual processing. Who knows. That would be a very shaken subject if you were required to have more than one PS3 to play a game. Although think of it this way. They might be able to keep up with graphical changes in the furture if the entire install bases is improving eachother graphically. So in a sense the games could grow in complexity well int he furture with teh same insall base.

[Viper]

Tis very true, but as we keep saying....if the developers don't like it, they aren't gonna make games for it. I've read several times from different studios who are worried that it will be just too difficult to program for.

[=NukeBlaze=]

Yes, from the artilce I just read from CPU, the same peron whom made the laungage for the PS2, will move on to the PS3. Then they show Xbox's Dirct X paralles which are fimilar to program from PC games, etc. DEvelopers already said it takes 2-3 times the amount of money to develop a game for the PS2 compared to the Cube/Xbox. The only reason they do it is because of the install base. With the install base missing on the PS3 in the begining, and the later lanuch...Other compaines make their way to other camps such as Nintendo and Microsoft.

I can say SOny has a hard road in front of them if they want to keep the crown undisputed.

[Viper]

If you don't agree with what NukeBlaze just said, you are very misinformed and need to re-read the last several posts. Don't think that I believe Nintendo has it any easier though.

[=NukeBlaze=]

I never said I didn't agree.

No one has it "easy" this time around...Not even the comsumer.

[Viper]

That was aimed at everyone else Nuke, not you.....my post was in agreement with yours. Sorry for the miscommunication. I'll edit the post a bit.

[aerofan113]

Sooner or later Xbox will start to take over the #1 spot. Not only are they richer, but they can easily aquire other video game companies. From what I here Nintendo and PS3 will be using PSI chips. Which can handle like twice as much as a DVD-ROM. Nintendo is also claiming their next system will be " the greatest ever". I have heard that before though

[Barbooski]

Not only are they richer, but they can easily aquire other video game companies.

Don't those two go together?

...I think I scared away FuzzyDice