PS3 - Initial hardware costs: $495?

[Sephiroth_VII]

I thought it had been a while without PS3 price threads.
So, here you are.
A completely irrelevant thread aboub what we think PS3 is gonna cost.

Please post your answers in £, $ and euro.

About the poll.

If you think there is going to be both a value and a corepack, please choose one of both.

If you only think we're gonna get a corepack, please choose only one option.
Please be civilised enough to choose MAX. 2 options.

[Infernal]

Ummmm.... I dont think it will be ANY of those options, i think between 300-400 it will be, but thats not an option soo...

[Effulgence]

$400 core pack with wireless controller
$500 with wireless controller, hd, some kind of online bonus, and maybe gt5 or something free.

[Sephiroth_VII]

Shit.

Could a mod, please add:
300-400 (valuepack)

300-400 (corepack)

Sorry, my bad :shrug:

[Red]

There will be no value pack or something else. Sony confirmed that they will only release one version of the ps3 for the first time.

[rpgamer_2k5]

I got a feeling the PS3 will cost $299.99, with or without the HDD. This would be the most competitive price range, because I many would want to spend a good amount on games. I don't need 'free' games, etc with my PS3, especially when they are usually crap.

[Helios]

I guess it all depends on what the "valuepack" is going to include, and what the core unit wont include. I mean look at the 360 value/core packs, the core pack doesnt even have a wireless controller.

An idea ive been leaning towards as of lately is that the P33 core package is going to more closely resemble the 360 value pack, by that I mean complete with HDD and all that "extra" stuff as standard. Then release it at $350.

[O.D.S]

ugh... guys read Red's post
There will be no value pack or something else. Sony confirmed that they will only release one version of the ps3 for the first time.

[sif]

Yeah that was Phil Harrison's keynote from the GDCE. I think 250 quid (quite close to the "under 40000 yen" statement plus tax) in the UK (is probably around $350 American). I think the big surprise will be an HD eyetoy packaged with every PS3.

[Domination]

I'm just curious as to why some believe Sony is going to have a core and value package at launch dispite what they may think about. I mean seriously, Microsoft has a core and value package because they are trying to retain the hardcore fanbase while gathering a new user base. From what I know, Sony doesn't have two user bases or at least in that way anyway.

This so reminds me of everything else in the pass and present concerning Sony's relationship with their partners and Microsoft's being identical to one another, therefore giving you the same results. http://community.the-underdogs.org/smiley/happy/lol2.gif

[rpgamer_2k5]

ugh... guys read Red's post
Well said. We are not going to see different packages, because Sony does not have to follow Microsoft. No one will, including Nintendo. Microsoft is still going to be following Nintendo and Sony; they need to gain their profits first, the other two have achieved this long ago.

[VG Aficionado]

I won't comment on the accuracy of this , I'll leave it to you mates.

Xbox 360 "Half the Price of PS3" by Late 2006
By Christian Svensson Print | Send to a friend | Email the editor
Merrill Lynch has released a new breakdown of next generation hardware component costs suggesting that Xbox 360 "could be selling at half the price of PS3 in the latter half of 2006." Full stats breakdown inside...
ImageThe report puts a positive spin on Microsoft's future with Xbox 360 versus Sony's PS3. It includes estimated breakdown of hardware costs by component and shipping predictions. Particular emphasis on the manufacturing costs of each console has been paid in this report. Some of the highlights include:

"…The PS3 will not only be significantly more costly than Xbox 360 at launch, but will continue to operate at a cost disadvantage for several years. … We think that the Xbox 360 could be selling at half the price of PS3 in the latter half of 2006."


"…Our analysis indicates that Microsoft has a significant advantage in terms of cost. Taking Sony's weakened financial condition and Microsoft's deep pockets into consideration, we conclude that Microsoft's Xbox 360 should emerge as the early winner in the next round of the game console wars."

"Competitive pricing [for Microsoft] could hurt margins for Microsoft in the near term, but we think that Microsoft has the potential to exit 2006 with an installed base of 10 million units, with all that implies for more profitable software sales for 2007."

The report also states that ATI (GPU provider), Infineon (memory provider) and Marvel (licensed Microsoft to make an MMOG) could all benefit from an early lead on Xbox 360.

On the cost of goods side, Merrill Lynch believes that the Cell processor will initially cost $160 to make… more than the Xenon CPU which comes in at $100.

The graphics solutions will also be pricey. Both Nvidia's RSX and ATI's GPU will cost about $100 each. Price reductions over time will eventually get the parts to about $30.

Blu-Ray is also cited as an expensive solution for PS3. The cost of the drive is estimated to cost at least $75.

On the RAM side, Microsoft again is expected to have some advantage using GDDR3 given its availability on the open market. PS3's XDR main memory is "not a product that has gained acceptance elsewhere", implying some sort of additional risk or cost.

On the Hard Drive front, it predicts that PS3 will not have one included standard, but like Microsoft, it will be an add-on.

The report predicts that Microsoft will break even in year one of the 360's release and that profits will come in year two. The report predicts that 2 million hardware units will be sold in 2005 with 7 million shipping in 2006.

A lot of the predictions made are based upon the assumption that Sony will not take a significant loss on the hardware (which it believes to be the case given Sony's recent financial pressures). If Sony is willing to be aggressive on pricing with PS3, the report conceeds that many of these numbers are likely to change.

Costs By Hardware

PlayStation 3 Component Est. Cost at Launch Est. Cost after 3 Years
CPU IBM Cell $160 $50
GPU Nvidia RSX@550MHz $100 $30
Optical Media Blu-Ray $ 100 $ 30
Memory 256MB XDR/256MB GDDR3 $ 60 $ 30
HDD detachable 2.5" HDD NA NA
USB 6 ports $ 5 $ 3
Ethernet gigabit ethernet $ 5 $ 4
Wi-Fi 802.11b/g $ 5 $ 3
Bluetooth Bluetooth 2.0 $ 10 $ 5
Other Analog IC, ASICs, I/O $ 50 $ 40
Total $ 495 $ 195


Xbox 360 Component Est. Cost at Launch Est. Cost after 3 Years
CPU IBM PPC $ 100 $ 35
GPU ATI GPU $ 100 $ 30
Optical Media DVD-ROM $ 25 $ 10
Memory 512MB GDDR3 $ 50 $ 25
HDD detachable 20GB HDD $ 25 $ 15
USB 3 ports $ 5 $ 3
Ethernet Ethernet $ 5 $ 4
Wi-Fi 802.11 a/b/g $ 5 $ 3
Controllers up to 4 wireless NA NA
Other Analog IC, ASICs, I/O $ 25 $ 20
Total $ 340 $ 145Link: Next Generation (http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1497&Itemid=2)

P.S. Can anybody give me a hand to make the costs lists more readable? Moderators?

[Kb-smoker]

PlayStation 3 Component Est. Cost at Launch Est. Cost after 3 Years
CPU IBM Cell $160 $50
GPU Nvidia RSX@550MHz $100 $30
Optical Media Blu-Ray $100 $30
Memory 256MB XDR/256MB GDDR3 $60 $30
HDD detachable 2.5" HDD NA NA
USB 6 ports $ 5 $ 3
Ethernet gigabit ethernet $ 5 $ 4
Wi-Fi 802.11b/g $ 5 $ 3
Bluetooth Bluetooth 2.0 $ 10 $ 5
Other Analog IC, ASICs, I/O $ 50 $ 40
Total $ 495 $195

number seems to be off. Cell was reported to be around $101 and not 160.

[Viper]

I'm editing it for you.

[xbdestroya]

It's just stupid. They were the ones to say Cell would be $101; it was high then, but it's out of control now. With a probably smaller die size than RSX, and an SPE disabled, plus three fabs working on it - it's completely unfathomable how they came to that $160 figure. Not to mention, the blu-ray drive price is completely arbitrary. A LOT of the prices seem arbitrary to me. Convenient how both the CPU and GPU in 360 come to $100 even.

Anyway here's the image for the pricing:

http://img360.imageshack.us/img360/3752/bom9vk.png

[goku2057]

Well, it's no suprise it's going to be expensive, hell, they've TOLD us it's going to be expensive.

[Phryne Astynome]

It's just stupid. They were the ones to say Cell would be $101; it was high then, but it's out of control now. With a probably smaller die size than RSX, and an SPE disabled, plus three fabs working on it - it's completely unfathomable how they came to that $160 figure. Not to mention, the blu-ray drive price is completely arbitrary. A LOT of the prices seem arbitrary to me. Convenient how both the CPU and GPU in 360 come to $100 even.

Anyway here's the image for the pricing:

http://img360.imageshack.us/img360/3752/bom9vk.png

Direct Link: http://webpages.charter.net/spartan85/ML_Consoles.pdf

Merrill is pretty reliable on these estimates most of the time. I would agree with most of their costs with the exception of the Cell (In fact, I would think Cell would be cheaper than RSX). Anyways I told you before that Sony and Blackstone are partners (Peter G. Petersen is on the Board of Directors of Sony) and Sony doesn't use Merrill for anything so I would guess these are their rough estimates and Microsoft uses Goldman for most of their research and M&A advisory. Lots of analysts bullshit like crazy, YOU of all people should know this since your friends worked in some bulge bracket banks and most likely they told you stories about how much they bullshit even in M&A advisory. Still, Merrill has some sharp brains working there (with a few exceptions here and there such as tons of D1 athletes) so we should take these estimates seriously.

[Crossbar]

Why is "Other components: Analog IC, AICS, IO" twice as expensive for the PS3? I think they should pretty much be same.

That table look really strange, are they really taking into account that Sony are manufactoring some of the expensive components themself?

[xbdestroya]

Direct Link: http://webpages.charter.net/spartan85/ML_Consoles.pdf

Merrill is pretty reliable on these estimates most of the time. I would agree with most of their costs with the exception of the Cell (In fact, I would think Cell would be cheaper than RSX). Anyways I told you before that Sony and Blackstone are partners (Peter G. Petersen is on the Board of Directors of Sony) and Sony doesn't use Merrill for anything so I would guess these are their rough estimates and Microsoft uses Goldman for most of their research and M&A advisory. Lots of analysts bullshit like crazy, YOU of all people should know this since your friends worked in some bulge bracket banks and most likely they told you stories about how much they bullshit even in M&A advisory. Still, Merrill has some sharp brains working there (with a few exceptions here and there such as tons of D1 athletes) so we should take these estimates seriously.

Well, I take them seriously to a degree, but it's just my tech side that has all the alarms going off. I mean even on Microsoft's side: $25 for the DVD-ROM drive? I mean, we should be talking about $10 on that thing *now*, not in three years.

You and me the consumer can pay $18 for crying out loud: DVD Drive (http://www.newegg.com/Product/ProductList.asp?Manufactory=&PropertyCodeValue=365%3A7747&PropertyCodeValue=0&PropertyCodeValue=0&PropertyCodeValue=0&PropertyCodeValue=0&description=&MinPrice=&MaxPrice=&SubCategory=55&Submit=Property)

Also the Cell, of all things, should definitely cost the least out of all of these chips three years out. The scale alone... Plus the authors seem to estimate price drops based on time from console launch, rather than a fixed date to reflect the time at which reduced fab processing becomes available to both companies. (and I would actually argue that Sony's Nagasaki fab will come online with 65nm before MS will have access to it through Chartered and TSMC)

[speed stick]

Wow, I did not expect the costs to be this high when the time comes for the launch. So if the 360 sells for half, thats going to be very tough for Sony to compete with. And then you got the Revolution which should be out around the sametime and will also cost less.

[Phryne Astynome]

Well, I take them seriously to a degree, but it's just my tech side that has all the alarms going off. I mean even on Microsoft's side: $25 for the DVD-ROM drive? I mean, we should be talking about $10 on that thing *now*, not in three years.

You and me the consumer can pay $18 for crying out loud: DVD Drive (http://www.newegg.com/Product/ProductList.asp?Manufactory=&PropertyCodeValue=365%3A7747&PropertyCodeValue=0&PropertyCodeValue=0&PropertyCodeValue=0&PropertyCodeValue=0&description=&MinPrice=&MaxPrice=&SubCategory=55&Submit=Property)

Yup, like I said tons of analysts tend to bullshit like crazy. I bet you knew a whole bunch of D1 athletes and Sigma Chi frat boys during your time at McIntire who were recruited as analysts at the BB i-banks right? Most analysts I know detest their jobs since they work 80-100 hours a week as nothing more than Excel monkeys. The most common word I hear from them is that their workers are complete assholes and the environment feels like a fraternity. For the people out there, I suggest you read "Liar's Poker" and "Monkey Business" to see how much analysts bullshit.

[xbdestroya]

Yup, like I said tons of analysts tend to bullshit like crazy. I bet you knew a whole bunch of D1 athletes and Sigma Chi frat boys during your time at McIntire who were recruited as analysts at the BB i-banks right? Most analysts I know detest their jobs since they work 80-100 hours a week as nothing more than Excel monkeys. The most common word I hear from them is that their workers are complete assholes and the environment feels like a fraternity. For the people out there, I suggest you read "Liar's Poker" and "Monkey Business" to see how much analysts bullshit.

LOL, well I'll tell ya all my I-banker friends are actually female. ;)

Though I have another friend of mine at S&P in ratings and he was a definite frat guy, no doubt there. I'll check those books out though - sounds like I'd enjoy them!

[Phryne Astynome]

LOL, well I'll tell ya all my I-banker friends are actually female. ;)

Though I have another friend of mine at S&P in ratings and he was a definite frat guy, no doubt there. I'll check those books out though - sounds like I'd enjoy them!

Shocking to say the least. I have no problem with D1 athletes and Greeks though since most of the ones I know are awesome people; just that the ones who get into I-banks, from what I have seen, are pretty awful people. Well, hope your friends weren't teared up in there; I-banking is nasty if you're female. Monkey Business is more recent and more accurate btw, written by some guys who worked at DLJ (aka CSFB).

EDIT: Merrill Lynch gave a campus presentation a long time ago at my school for the Investment Banking division and I am going to quote what the Managing Director said. He said "working 100 hours a week isn't that bad because when you are working that much, time flies".

[Domination]

http://community.the-underdogs.org/smiley/happy/laugh2.gif These analyst just don't get enough. Why don't they just make up their minds already. Better yet, why don't they just shoot for a cool grand. :cheers:

[Infernal]

Isnt Merril Lynch the same analysts who like 2 months ago said cell, blu-ray, and rsx would all be exactly 101$ a piece. Looks like they change their minds quite often, I would say that they are by FAR the worst analysts I have ever seen honestly.

[Red_Eyes]

Hmmm... Let me do some re-calcuation... so this plus that, and...
the answer comes to... $495, the amount Microsoft paid those anyalysts come up with these pricy tag, when Ken said himself that PS3 will cost less than 300 something.

[Red_Eyes]

Yes, the initial hardware cost may be high, but that doesn't mean Sony will sell it at such a high price. Instead, just like Howard Stringer said:

"In keeping with the PlayStation business model, PS3 will roll out at a loss for the first six months, then rapidly turn profits on game-license fees. PS3 will be bundled with a selection of preloaded films, TV programs and games and sell for between $300-$400."

[VG Aficionado]

Yes, the initial hardware cost may be high, but that doesn't mean Sony will sell it at such a high price. Instead, just like Howard Stringer said:

"In keeping with the PlayStation business model, PS3 will roll out at a loss for the first six months, then rapidly turn profits on game-license fees. PS3 will be bundled with a selection of preloaded films, TV programs and games and sell for between $300-$400."It wasn't Stringer himself who said that, but a high-level studio (which one?) executive close to this discussions.

However, after reading the posts in this thread, it looks to me that a $300 PS3 could be feasible, mostly assuming that Sony could subsidize it up to $50 or maybe $75 if necessary and get that loss back in less than two years with console, game and Blu-ray movie sales. And even in the worst scenario, a $350 price tag wouldn't be totally out of the question for a "Value pack" equivalent.

[tazz3]

but sony will take a lose on each console.
so the PS3 should be at 400 dollars,
the 360 will lose about 60 per console

[VG Aficionado]

but sony will take a lose on each console.
so the PS3 should be at 400 dollars,
the 360 will lose about 60 per consoleMost people here don't agree that the initial cost will be $495, it could be well below $400, and so a possible price could be $300 or $350 at most.

[gnznroses]

this seems to be an estimate of cost TO SONY. they sell at a loss, so we''d get it cheaper...

[Danji]

The cost to sony isn't even going to be $495..that's ludicrous. I'd expect something closer to $350 or more.

[rpgamer_2k5]

Sony is going to be able to drive down costs significantly, since they will not be paying much royalties, if not any so we're going to see a much lower production cost. Along with that, they are manufacturing the main components, hence they can keep the costs low. In other words, Sony's going to be gaining profit pretty early, just like with the PSX, PS2, and now the PSP.

[Coded-Dude]

I noticed the new poll, but there is no 300-400 option for either pak.......?
Anywho, I think all teh doubters will be somewhat surprised at teh overall price(games are a different story) and the optimistic ones will be rather pleased. That is all

[LaLiLuLeLo]

Direct Link: http://webpages.charter.net/spartan85/ML_Consoles.pdf

Merrill is pretty reliable on these estimates most of the time. I would agree with most of their costs with the exception of the Cell (In fact, I would think Cell would be cheaper than RSX). Anyways I told you before that Sony and Blackstone are partners (Peter G. Petersen is on the Board of Directors of Sony) and Sony doesn't use Merrill for anything so I would guess these are their rough estimates and Microsoft uses Goldman for most of their research and M&A advisory. Lots of analysts bullshit like crazy, YOU of all people should know this since your friends worked in some bulge bracket banks and most likely they told you stories about how much they bullshit even in M&A advisory. Still, Merrill has some sharp brains working there (with a few exceptions here and there such as tons of D1 athletes) so we should take these estimates seriously.



*snicker*

dude, merril lynch said ps2 was gonna cost between 400 and 600 US Dollars.

Edit: And what's with this Core/Premium pack bullshit? Just because MS is using that business model doesn't mean Sony is going to as well. In fact you can almost count on them not following it.
PS3 is gonna be $299, and I'm going to laugh. PSone as 299, PS2 was 299. Sony know's that is the sweet spot price people are willing to shell out for releasing new hardware. People forget that currently existing technology isn't as expensive as it used to be 5 years ago, and the new technology will be as expensive as the old technology was when it was new.

Sheesus.

[VG Aficionado]

And what's with this Core/Premium pack bullshit? Just because MS is using that business model doesn't mean Sony is going to as well. In fact you can almost count on them not following it.
PS3 is gonna be $299, and I'm going to laugh. PSone as 299, PS2 was 299. Sony know's that is the sweet spot price people are willing to shell out for releasing new hardware. People forget that currently existing technology isn't as expensive as it used to be 5 years ago, and the new technology will be as expensive as the old technology was when it was new.

Sheesus.I agree with you. Phil Harrison himself has stated that it is unlikely we'll see two different packs at launch, so...

The more I think about it, the more feasible seems to me that Sony could release PS3 for $299 OR a "Value pack" for $349. I don't see two different packs being released worldwide since Sony already tested this with PSP and they ended up dismissing the cheaper pack in favour of a value pack which included a memory stick duo and various useful accessories.

So I think we'll see at launch:

A simple pack of PS3 console + wireless controller + cables + promo BDROM for $299

OR

PS3 + wireless controller + cables + BDROM + MS duo + something else for $349.

I somehow think an HDD add-on won't be ready for launch.

[Danji]

I don't think the HDD is necessary for launch, but it would be really nice. Then again...HDD = $100 and PS3 = $300...game is about $60..controllers..$40 (jesus...)

$400
+ $180
--------
$580 for four player Fatal Inertia..oh well, it'll rock.

Those are my estimates there..I don't pretend that I'm right but it's my guess.

[indiekid4]

Mark my words, Friday November 4, 2005. The PS3 will be priced at $379.98.

Cheers!

[woundingchaney]

Im betting on 400-450, but most likely 400.

[chrismt]

If the PS3 ends up being priced above $350, sony will likely need to price it just a bit below the 360 premium package and also include enough accessories to make the people buying an 360 think that they would be getting a both better console and a better deal with the PS3. Or they could just hype the hell out of it and sell a bare bones package for $400, but I wouldn't see that going very far.

[venomv]

Im betting on 400-450, but most likely 400.

I see $400 as a max, really I'm thinking $350 but I can hope for $300 again can't I, lol.

[Z]

you know what? I wouldn't rule out $299 just yet. I also see 300-350 to be very possible. but another 50 for the ultimate experience, geek hungry, techie dream isn't much, right? ;)

[Nodieza]

I think having a core and value pack is a childish way to snuff money out of ppl. plus it creates some confusion and production costs go up due to multiple versions, Sony better stick with 1 deal, I'll buy everything else on my own time and salary thank you.

[Danji]

"Hello sir! Would you like the ultimate bundle for your 360?"
"Hrm, let's see...think or save money....*hands over $1000* Get me one of them 360's right ther with the license plate right ther!"
"You mean the faceplate?"
"Yea, whatever"



Don't buy bundles, unless the only other choice is to get financially raped without lube a la 360.

Quote me on this. The PS3 is going to be $300.

[O.D.S]

lol, a "different" way of looking at it.

[rpgamer_2k5]

It's going to be $299. The core and value package is such a stupid idea proposed by Microsoft. They have been losing money, yet they try to do very stupid stunts. If the HDD is too expensive then don't expect the PS3 to feature a HDD. The reason why the PS2 HDD was not purchased, because it was not available at fall. If Sony can sell a 80GB HDD for $70-80 CAN bundled with Linux, they will sell plenty.

Sony doesn't need to follow MS.

[Nodieza]

HA... your funny Danji, bringing all "our southern culture" in here >.>... I love you.... ugh... with mou.... no.... hmm... with 360.... and lube and lotz of hearts... and right you are my good sir, quoting initiated.

The PS3 is going to be $300.

I'd love to hope so.... please be 300

[Ravster]

I think $400-500 but i chose the last one by accident. Over $500 is just too much

[Coded-Dude]

$301.99 - Usd

[rog27]

how come i can't vote 300-400 for value pack?

[Coded-Dude]

^thats what I said - hehehehe

[ACE0000]

I picked 400-500 only because I think it will sell for maybe close to $350 butyou didn't have 300-400 as an option... I think this because of the fact that Microsoft is selling their super package for $400 so I think if they sell it for $350 rather then $300 it would actually be a good thing because it may make it apear that it is better then the basic 360 because it is $50 more and still less then the special 360 pack at $400