PS3 Release Date Info

[RzrWire]

There are so many articles in different threads that relate to the possibility of the PS3's release date, yet there is no localized thread to put all the information. That is why I created this thread; to post any rumors, solid leads, and the official launch date when info is released. I don't have the time at the moment to sift through some of these threads to try and repost some of the better leads we've had over the last couple of months. So if anyone remembers posting anything of importance please repost in this thread when you get the time.

I will start off with the following article I just found:

Kotaku.com - Original Article (http://www.kotaku.com/gaming/top/ps3-hits-us-this-holiday-151024.php)

PS3 Hits US This Holiday? Jan. 26th 2006

A well-placed mole tells me that Sony has green-lighted the Playstation 3 for a Fall release in North America. Sony is still evaluating when it will hit in Japan, but they are apparently still shooting for the increasingly-imminent Spring.

Key Sony personnel, I’m told, are on the ground there now trying to figure out how to handle the launch.

If true, and this is by no means official, that means Nintendo will be doing exactly what it doesn’t want to do: Duking it out shoulder-to-shoulder with Sony for the hearts and minds of gamers everywhere.

Of course, if this is true it might also mean that Nintendo could be pressured to rush to market and get something out sooner rather than later. I just don’t see them holding off until next year.

[HolyPaladin]

A fall release date for North America's pretty realistic, and if I were to put any money on a prediction, it would be for a fall release. I've already previously detailed my similar stance for a Revolution release date in the US; mainly that the majority of Nintendo's platforms have released late into the year. The same has been true for the PSX (PS1) and PS2, which had US release dates of September 9, 1995 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation) and October 26, 2000 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_2) respectively.

[Helios]

None of this really surprises me. I never thought PS3 would release anytime other than fall for the US. And its pretty obvious regardless of ninty's claims of not competing with 360/PS3 that the public doesnt see it that way so they'd have to release anyways.

Rushed launch or not though they arent going to botch it up like MS did in certain regards. Besides actual production I dont think there's much left to do anyways.

[Fillibuster]

I've always thought it'd be fall release here too. I used to think I'd never make it. But in a sick way, all the anticipation for events like TGS, CES, and now the PS meeting, have made the time pass quicker. I'm not sure how much longer my heart can take it thought before it explodes.

[koldfuzion]

I saw that this morning, I think it's pretty much in line with most of the speculation floating around. Spring in Japan (right before or after E3), I'm thinking later, May/June, still technically "Spring")), fall US (Sept/Oct). RoW--no idea. Seems to be the general consensus these days.

[woundingchaney]

I saw that this morning, I think it's pretty much in line with most of the speculation floating around. Spring in Japan (right before or after E3), I'm thinking later, May/June, still technically "Spring")), fall US (Sept/Oct). RoW--no idea. Seems to be the general consensus these days.


Yeah I agree, although I look for a late fall with the US maybe Nov (early Nov).

[OmniCloud]

yeah..I think i'll go along with a Fall release too. But that does kinda suck..I did wanna a least play a little PS3 over the summer, damn, by the time it comes out I'll be swopped with school and work again and have no time to play anymore :(

[RzrWire]

I thought this would be interesting to post here. It's an old article from 2003 posted on The Register that orginated from Gamesindustry.biz. Click on the title to go to the original article.

Let's do PS3 launch… in 2005 (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2003/07/11/lets_do_ps3_launch/)

Elpida production schedule
By gamesindustry.biz
Published Friday 11th July 2003 12:04 GMT


A late 2005 launch date for the PlayStation 3 looks increasingly likely today, with confirmation from Elpida that it will be beginning production of memory chips for the console early that year.

Earlier this year, Elpida was officially named as the memory supplier for the PS3, with the company set to supply memory architecture based on the Rambus XDR DRAM technologies. The same brand of memory will also be used on other Cell based broadband devices - see our story Rambus renames Yellowstone as XDR DRAM.

Both Elpida and Toshiba, which is also to manufacture XDR DRAM chips, will be beginning initial production in late 2004, and will ramp up to full production in early 2005. It's likely that the vast bulk of Elpida's output will be destined for PlayStation 3.

This suggests a production schedule for the PS3 which would see the console launching in 2005, as anticipated by most pundits. We're not gambling types, but if we were, we'd put money on a mid-2005 launch in Japan, followed by US and European launches only a few months apart later that year - perhaps September 2005 in the USA, and November 2005 in Europe... ®-

Copyright © 2003 gamesindustry.biz

LoL... That release schedual would've been nice!

[RzrWire]

Edit: I will be posting relevant info shortly...

[Helgunn]

yeah..I think i'll go along with a Fall release too. But that does kinda suck..I did wanna a least play a little PS3 over the summer, damn, by the time it comes out I'll be swopped with school and work again and have no time to play anymore :(
Get an Xbox 360.

[RzrWire]

^ That's what I did.

[Marjoh]

Though I expect to read more "PS3 release date" article/news in the coming months, weeks, and/or days, I promised myself that I will stopped speculating/guessing regarding PS3's release date and will wait for "official" announcement. Thank you.

.Z

[RzrWire]

GameSHOUT: Click on title for original article.

Sony PS3 in 2006 and Analyst Predictions (http://www.gameshout.com/news/012006/article2976.htm)
Posted Jan 30, 2006, 6:01 PM ET

Analyst Predict Low Sales For Sony PS3 In 2006.


Jay Defibaugh, a Boston analyst, predicts a release time for the PS3 between

May and June. Yet, Sony has it’s Japanese launch goal of the PS3 set for spring 2006. Most analysts are predicting that the system will not come close to it due to many reasons. Mainly because the hardware that is included in the PS3 has not even been fully completed.

Eiji Maeda, the Senior Analyst of Daiwa Institute of Research, predicts the PS3 will be released in Japan between April and June, but they will have little third-party support untl the fall. Most analysts predict low sales of the PS3 in 2006 due to poor third party support in the year. Yet, they do predict that 2007 will be an incredibly strong year for them.

Sony contacted us here at GameSHOUT last month and stated that the Sony PlayStation 3 launch was still set for Spring 2006. There hasn't been any official change in the release date yet.

I am going with GameSHOUT on this one also. They appear to be truthful about the article I post in the Rumor: Sony PS3 Live Service (http://forums.e-mpire.com/showthread.php?t=50963) thread and what they said Sony had confirmed with them. I see no reason to doubt them now either.

Some Relevant Posts:

1) Poll : what is the date of release of the PS3 ? (http://forums.e-mpire.com/showthread.php?t=50708) Thread

2) Tommy Tallarico Interview: (http://www.forumeye.it/invision/index.php?showtopic=271116) He might be seen as a douche bag but he is more involved and has more contacts in the industry than we do... (Regarding US Launch Date)
It's the same reason why people like Kojima (and many others) have been already showing games for a system still far from launch (I don't believe the SPRING '06 date for a second). My sources tell me to look for the PS3 in the US next fall.

3) PS3 Portal Reports: PlayStation 3 on track for 2006 (http://www.ps3portal.com/ps3/article/232.html) Date posted: 12 December 2005
It may be an older article but does contain info regarding Sony's confirmation to two reliable sources (I think Reuters is) with industry contacts.
According to a recent report published on the Reuters website. They managed to get in touch with one of Sony's executives, who wasn't named in the article or quoted directly with the claim. But Reuters say that it was confirmed by the source that Sony is indeed working hard to bring its brand new PlayStation to life in Spring 2006.

In a recent issue of popular gaming mag, PSM. Leading Sony executives were also quoted as re-confirming the PlayStation 3 launch to coincide with the date announcement made in front of near two thousand journalists during the E3 press conference.

Whether the spring release is for Japan or US is still unknown. Recent interviews with key employees suggest that Sony is looking into a simultaneous launch across the major territories like Microsoft but isn't concerned if it's really important. Sony's previous consoles have always released in Japan first and then anywhere else and maybe Ken and his team would like to keep true to that trend.

Sony is also expected to reveal some crucial details next month at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES). We'll be tracking the event closely and bring news to you as soon as possible. Keep checking back PS3portal for more PlayStation 3 related information.

Author: Imtiaz Haider

4) The info I highlighted in bold refers to a question asked in an interview PSM did with Jack Tretton; COO, Executive Vice President, Sales and Marketing for SCEA. SCEA Profile On PlayStation.com (http://www.us.playstation.com/about.aspx?id=management/415013271.html). Originally posted by VG Aficionado in first Feb. Surprise (http://forums.e-mpire.com/showthread.php?t=48303&page=5&highlight=surprise) thread Post #88. You can tell Jack's attitude isn't one of consurn but never says it won't be a possibility either.
PSM: How important to Sony is the idea of a simultaneous worldwide launch of Playstation 3?

Jack Tretton: I don't think a consumer really cares whether or not if the PS3 is available in another country before or after it's available for them. Everybody wants a new platform as soon as they can get their hands on it, and I guess selfishly every territory wants to be first, but I think ultimately what the consumers are going to be excited about is going to be the software content that's available for it. The actual machine isn't very exciting unless you have compelling software to put into it. Often times, the first territory the system launches in suffers from the weakest launch lineup because the other territories have that additional time to do development and really get more games available and make each game that much better in time to hit the launch window.

5) Sony themselves showing the slide at E3 2005 and till this day continual/multiple confirmations to websites that they are still on track for a Spring 2006 Release. It is also important to note that Sony never mentions which territory(s) it will launch in first. Keep in mind for this year: Spring - March 20, 2006 to June 21, 2006


http://img65.imageshack.us/img65/1214/ps3launch2ld.jpg

[xbdestroya]

Nice composite post Jag!

[frosty]

Assuming the above graph is accurate, I opened photoshop and completed the graph, this might help to give a more accurate idea of the timeline of events. I used the points in time they plotted out and filled in the blanks with evenly (sorta) spaced lines with the corresponding month above. As you can see the conference should be around the end of feb. and launch around the end of may.

http://www.baysidevideoproductions.com/ps3 schedule.jpg

[Sephiroth_VII]

Interesting, but did they even know exactly when PS3 would launch back then?

[frosty]

I'm sure they've had their PS3 roadmap in place for quite some time.

[koldfuzion]

Thanks Frosty, I'm not sure if the guys at Sony plotted it out with such precision, but I was wondering what it would look like if someone bothered to plot it out. Can't hurt. :)

[RzrWire]

frosty nugs ~ I never looked at it that way before. Even extending the months back on the slide you photoshoped, it would definately coincide with the time frame that developers said they got their PS3 evaluation systems (right before E3 2005). Which is why a few of the demos were done to spec because many just didn't have enough time to work with the PS3 E.S. May is also not an unreasonable time for the console to launch. I think this time, for once, Viper may have been right. There's a very good possibility Sony will use E3 2006 as a huge advertisement venue and final demonstration place for PS3 before it launches by the end of May. In this regard maybe PS3 will be the first console to hit U.S. shores first!

Edit:
I think you uncovered Sony's true agenda and launch month. I have a strong feeling this is how Sony has it laid out in their original "Schedual" slide but edited it out to hide the launch date. (+rep)

[frosty]

Here is a more detailed and accurate version.

http://www.baysidevideoproductions.com/ps3 launch plan.jpg

[RzrWire]

^ You can't get any more accurate than that. The last piece of the puzzle that we are missing in regards to the launch date is the actual date in May 2006 this will happen plus which territory(s) PS3 will launch in. Excellent job frosty nugs! The answer was right in front of our faces!!!

[frosty]

Thanks, I'm glad to do anything to help with this drought of info we've had. I knew there was more to that pic when I first saw it. I wouldn't take it as a clear indication of which territory will go first, but it does allow just enough time for 1st gen games to have a nice coat of polish and for factory production, so it is hopeful. It also reveals that devs had JUST got their hands on kits when E3 came around. So no wonder so much pre-rendered stuff.

[frosty]

Does anybody know when the 1st dev kits went out? it's the only event that I'm not sure fits into the time frame on the graph I made.

[RzrWire]

First off if you go back to the E3 2005 Vids when Epic was showing off their UT2007 demo, Tim S. said that they had received their 1st Dev Kit 2 months before E3 2005. That would place it around Mid-March. You have to remember that only a handful of developers got their kits this early. Plus I found this:

AVS Forum - PS3 Development Kit info needed (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/archive/index.php/t-564455.html): Klee, the originator of the information, gives his credentials at the end of the thread. Everything I've ever heard from interviews/articles with developers and about the PS3 Dev. Kits leads me to strongly believe his information is accurate.
01ferrari-fan 07-30-05, 06:13 PM
WOW, i REALLY appreciate the time you took for a "newb" .... the one thing i don't really see is a date [like March 10th] that the first SDK went out

thx again !!!!

Klee [B]07-31-05, 10:41 AM
Actually, the original CEB-1020 "Shreck" systems started shipping in very small numbers in the middle of Jan. 2005 and the last Shreck systems were phased out in march when the CEB-2030 "Cytology" kits started shipping in their place.....

The Cytology kits will be shipping to developers until December when the SPCH-CEB900 PS3 Refrence Tools start arriving....

They are currently around 500 PS3 kits in developers hands around the world (EA alone has ~40 or so kits to themselves) and sony will be ramping up the production of kits being shipped out to developers...this month they will be sending out ~100 kits then 200 in August and they say 300 more in Sept and 3000 in Oct...we will see about that, though...

Klee 08-01-05, 06:58 AM
At one time I was an editor for Ziff-Davis/EGM...

I still have some contacts within the gaming industry and one of them, who is working on an unannounced PS3 game for EA Canada, has been working on the Kit since then.....

PC Watch - SCEI and PS3 Development Kit Schedule Announced (http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/2005/0722/kaigai199.htm): They did an article back in July that gave a detailed account of the PS3 Dev Kits vs. the final PS3 Console. I will post the translated version below.
SCEI and PS3 development kit schedule announced

Sony Computer Entertainment held their yearly summary meeting for the Playstation, the PlayStation Meeting 2005. In that meeting, new information regarding the Playstation 3 was released.

First of all, the scheduled launch of the PS3 in the spring of 2006 was reconfirmed, and immediately before that, a pre-event called the “Playstation Conference” will be held.

At first, SCEI used the Cell Evaluation System to do software stack validation. This machine was supposedly used as a debugging machine, used in internal company labs, and it was also provided to a select group of vendors for evaluation. It has a 2.4 GHz Cell processor, 256MB XDR DRAM, and an nVidia graphics board.

Next, SCEI developed the much-anticipated “PS3 Evaluation System” for customer evaluation. The machine number is CEB-2030 and the codename is “Cytology.” SCEI has been distributing these machines to software vendors since this spring. The specs of the PS3 Evaluation System will be explained later, but basically it has a 2.4GHz Cell, 512MB of XDR DRAM, and a GeForce 7800 (G70).

In December 2005, SCEI is scheduled to release the “PS3 Reference Tool”, which has nearly the same architecture as the actual PS3. It will have a 3.2 GHz Cell, the RSX, 512MB of XDR DRAM, and a BD drive. Currently, it is set to be a 2U rack mount unit, but vertical configurations are being considered.

SCEI will continue to provide PS3 Evaluation Systems until November. Currently, 450 units have been sent out, and will continue to increase according to the supply figures shown below, to answer the intensive demand for the machine.

August – 200 units
Sept – 300 units
October – 3000 units
November – 3000+ units

CELL and XDR DRAM are 75% of PS3’s capability

The PS3 Evaulation System differs from the final PS3 specs in various ways.

First of all, the Cell operating frequency is 2.4 GHz, which is 75% of the production board. In the case of the CPU, it is not uncommon to hold down the clock speed until validation is completed. Of course, while it is not possible for this machine to perform at the PS3 final spec, the knowledge that it is at 75% [and then compensating for it] should be enough to get by.

The memory is XDR DRAM, and the Cell chip used is connected to the XDR DRAM by the XDR DRAM interface (XIO). This is also not full-spec. At least in June, the XDR DRAM date transfer rate in the PS3 Evaluation System was held to 2.4 Gbps. The PS3’s XDR DRAM data rate will be at 3.2 Gbps, so this is also a 75% capability.

The XDR DRAM data rate drop can be seen as in sync with the CPU clock speed drop. What this shows is the possibility that the Cell CPU core and the XDR DRAM interface were developed at the same time. Simultaneous development is easier, and has other advantages. Particularly, in the case of CPU-memory, latency is a very important factor, so simultaneous development has many advantages.

Most importantly, the XDR DRAM rate may have been dropped to compensate for the yield rate of the new XDR DRAM. It might be difficult to create 3.2 Gbps XDR DRAM samples at this early stage. If we think about the DRAM cell core clock (Internal Column Frequency), 3.2Gbps XDR DRAM is rather difficult. When XDR DRAM mass production for the PS3 begins, it will be moved to a 90nm process, but for now, it is being built on 100-110nm processes, which is bad for yield rates. Additionally, in the PS3 Evaluation System, RIMM (Rambus memory modules) are used. These modules might eat into the timing margins.

The PS3 Evaluation System introduced in this conference has a 512 MB of XDR DRAM. This is twice the 256 MB of the PS3. This increase might be due to the RIMM modules. In June, it was explained that the PS3 Evaluation System was designed to also be able to use RIMM. This large amount of memory is meant for verification [appraisal, testing] purposes.

The XDR DRAM interface is configurable, so it has high flexibility. It is an x16 interface, but is also capable being configured as x8 or x4. XDR DRAM has a point-to-point connection with the Cell chip. For example, by changing from x16 to x8, one channel can support connections with twice as many DRAM chips. The RIMM module takes advantage of this property, allowing one channel to support 2 RIMM while maintaining a point-to-point connection. (Trans. note: by context it is clear that “point-to-point” means a direct connection between two ICs, with no intervening chip in between.) On the other hand, the final PS3 design has the XDR DRAM memory directly integrated into the motherboard.

Currently, the graphics are connected by PCI-Express x4

In the PS3 Evaluation System, the PC-centric GeForce 7800 GTX (G70) is used as a substitute for the RSX. The RSX and G70 are made from about the same shaders, and the internal shader architecture is predicted to be quite similar. Because of that, as far as graphics are concerned, using the G70 as a base for software development should not create many problems. Shader programs should be able to run as if the two chips were the same.

However, the G70 has a lower clock speed than the RSX, and will certainly have some level of performance difference. However, an even greater difference than the internal GPU performance is the interface.

In the PS3, the Cell and RSX are connected by a parallel interface developed by Rambus called FlexIO (Redwood), which has a wide 35GB/sec bandwidth (20GB/sec down, 15GB/sec up). However, the G70, which has a PCI Express x16 interface, cannot be directly connected to the Cell’s FlexIO interface.

Therefore, in the PS3 Evaluation System the G70 is collected to the south bridge by PCI Express. In the June PS3 Evaluation System, they were connected by PCI Express x4. The south bridge used by the PS3 Evaluation System is basically the same as the south bridge developed by IBM for the Cell Workstation. Because of that, the chip has peripheral I/O PCI Express x4 meant for server applications. In the final version, PCI Express will disappear from the south bridge, but currently, the G70 is connected by it.

For that reason, currently the PCI Express x16 interface in the G70 cannot realize its full potential. According to the spec of the south bridge, Cell has only a 5 GB/sec FlexIO interface to the south bridge. If we assume the same is true for the PS3 Evaluation System, it will have drastically less bandwidth than the actual machine. Furthermore, the G70 is connected to the south bridge by PCI Express x4, which, at 2GB/sec, is even less. If we compare Cell->GPU bandwidth, we see that the PS3 Evaluation System is only 1/20 of the PS3.

According to SCEI, in the PS3 Evaluation System, the graphics side has been increased to 512MB of GDDR3 memory. In the actual PS3, there will be 256 MB of GDDR3. The reason for this increase in the video side memory is to allow buffering of data into the graphics side when the bus is idle. However, it will be difficult to use the PS3 Evaluation System to effectively evaluate the wide connection between the Cell and RSX in the PS3.

Additionally, the GDDR3 interface of the RSX is 128bits wide, whereas the G70 is 256bits wide, which means if both use x32 512Mbit DRAM chips, the G70 can support twice as much memory.

The special characteristic of the PS3 is the connection between Cell and RSX

The big special characteristic of PS3 Graphics is the connection between Cell and RSX. The RSX itself has a similar architecture to the G70, but the host interface for the G70 is meant for the PC and is completely different. The G70 uses PCI Express x16 to connect to the chipset as 8GB/sec (4GB/sec one-way), and it cannot directly access main memory. In contrast, the RSX has a 35GB/sec (20GB/sec down, 15GB/sec up) direct connection to the Cell, and can directly render from the main memory on the Cell side.

This is a big difference, because it allows a completely different way of using the GPU from PC architectures, SCEI explained. First of all, because the bus is wider, the Cell can perform a great amount of geometry operations, then send the vertex data [to the RSX]. Conversely, the RSX side can easily send data back to the Cell.

“The Cell processor can do both pre-processing and post-processing. For example, tessellation, dot filling, etc… Cell can perform physics processing like collision and motion calculations, and transform the vertex array.” said David B. Kirk, Chief Scientist of nVidia.

SCEI basically expects higher abstraction levels to be processed by Cell, and the details (like vertexes and pixels) to be processed by the GPU. The is reasonable – for example, in the case where the CPU side handles geometry transformation, collision detection, which is important in games, is not a problem. In the case where the GPU handles geometry transformation, if the data is not sent back to the CPU, clipping issues may occur. In the case of the PS3, the Cell side can perform transformations, and even if the GPU is used for transformation, it is comparatively easy to send the data back to the CPU side.

In architectures up to now, either the CPU or the GPU have been the bottleneck. It this is not resolved, we cannot go any further. To face this, in PS3 architecture, if the GPU becomes the bottleneck, it can shift work to the Cell, if the Cell becomes the bottleneck it can send work to the GPU, shifting the workload. For example, according to the software, the Cell side can perform more graphics processing, or, oppositely, or easily make an adjustment to leave the graphics work to the GPU, it was explained. In summary, between the CPU and GPU programmable processors, a flexible balance adjustment can be done.

In previous PC architectures, because they were limited by the CPU<->GPU pipe, geometry operations were held to a certain limit, and how rich an environment you can create within that limit became the main technical challenge. In contrast, the PlayStation2-type game consoles created large amounts of polygons, but after that it did not have the expressiveness of PCs. (Trans. note: probably means that PS2 is less capable in applying different effects to polygons than the PC, despite pumping out more polygons.) In the case of the PS3, both are possible, with the flexibility to balance the two.

However, in the case of the currently available PS3 Evaluation System, because of restrictions in the architecture, it is not possible to evaluate the balancing [of Cell and RSX]. This is a difficulty and a weakness, but, if we state it differently, software demos on the current systems still do not demonstrate the full potential of PS3. It is possible that the actual PS3 will have performance greater than current demos.

Significantly, when in comes to bus bandwidth, the Xbox 360 CPU-GPU connection is 21.6GB/sec, which is much wider than PCs. A wide-bandwidth CPU-GPU connections in not just the characteristic of PS3 in the next-generation consoles.

PS2’s simple boot-up started with firmware, and it loaded the OS and libraries from the disk. In comparison the PS3 starts from “Haipaabaiza” (Hyper-visor?) firmware. Haipaabaiza is a type of VMM (Virtual Machine Manager) software, which runs not on top but under the OS, providing machine virtualization. Even, when using only the Cell OS for gameplay, Haipaabaiza will always start first, and on top of that runs the pre-defined OS (guest OS). The OS, along with Haipaabaiza, creates a two-layer image. This basic OS layering is the same in the PS3 Evaluation System.

From this information we gather the following about the PS3 Dev. Kit Shipments (Updated):

Mid-Jan. 2005 to End-Mar. 2005: CEB-1020 "Shreck" Systems aka. "Cell Evaluation System"
End-Mar. 2005 to Mid-Dec. 2005: CEB-2030 "Cytology" Systems aka. “PS3 Evaluation System”
Beg-Jan. 2006 to Beg-May 2006: DEH-R103X Just known as “PS3 Reference Tool”
Beg-May. 2006 to 20XX: DEH-R104X Just Known as "PS3 Final Dev. Kit"

http://img325.imageshack.us/img325/5355/ps3devkitschedual9bg.jpg

I'm not sure when developers are going to get the "PS3 Final Dev. Kits" or if the "PS3 Reference Tool" is the final dev. kit which is why I only put the PS3 R.T. till 2006 for final shippment year (Edit: See Slide Above - GDC 2006). So the graph frosty nugs did is slightly off, but when Sony originally did the "Schedual" slide I'm sure that's when Sony had planned to have a wide release of PS3 Dev. Kits available. As we know they were in short supply at the time which Sony didn't want.

*Note 1* Updated 02-06-2006 at 09:54 PM. "PS3 Reference Tool" to correct release month.
*Note 2* Updated 03-31-2006 at 02:42 PM. Added end month for "PS3 Ref. Tool", "PS3 Final Dev. Kit" release, and a GDC 2006 Slide

[RzrWire]

Here is further proof backing up Klee's posts. I found this from the PlayStation Meeting In 2004. It is a slide that shows when the first set of evaluation systems was schedualed to ship for the Next System "PS3". You can even see that Sony first had their's around Dec. 2004...

http://img497.imageshack.us/img497/5954/psmeeting04ps3212jm.jpg

[frosty]

Well, lets also consider that perhaps they didn't have room on the slide, because the other dates line up quite well with sony's origional plans. But, it still isn't perfect, not all the vertical spacing between the squares is the same distance, just a quick job I did on it. But still may give us an idea of their intentions.

[xbdestroya]

From this information we gather the following about the PS3 Dev. Kit Shipments:

Mid-Jan. 2005 to End-Mar. 2005: CEB-1020 "Shreck" Systems aka. "Cell Evaluation System"
End-Mar. 2005 to Mid-Dec. 2005: CEB-2030 "Cytology" Systems aka. “PS3 Evaluation System”
Mid-Dec. 2005 to ??? 2006: Just known as “PS3 Reference Tool”

I'm not sure when developers are going to get the "PS3 Final Dev. Kits" or if the "PS3 Reference Tool" is the final dev. kit which is why I only put the PS3 R.T. till 2006 for final shippment year. So the graph frosty nugs did is slightly off, but when Sony originally did the "Schedual" slide I'm sure that's when Sony had planned to have a wide release of PS3 Dev. Kits available. As we know they were in short supply at the time which Sony didn't want.

Well from recent dev statements, I think Sony was behind in getting the 'reference tool' dev kits out; and we don't even know if they've shipped yet, all we know is that RSX equipped dev kits just went out this month, so whatever the case, Sony is about a month behind schedule now with those kits. Not sure how much that will effect things ultimately though of course.

[frosty]

Well, if this is true, we know that PS3 and Rev wil be out by September.

In its 2005 third quarter revenue report today, publisher Ubisoft announced the delay of Splinter Cell Double Agent, the fourth game in the series starring super spy Sam Fisher. Originally slated for release this spring (March 2006 was the unofficial window), Double Agent will now come out this September, allowing Ubisoft to release the game on all platforms simultaneously, including the Xbox 360 version.
Also in the financials report is a list of upcoming releases from Ubisoft from January to March 2006

http://opm.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3147510

But then again, after reading into it some more they could just mean all current gen platforms.

[Infernal]

Yah they mean current gen platforms and the 360, I remember a previous article about splinter cell 4 that was more specific about which systems and what not.

[BJ2]

dis yo boy big bruce

[frosty]

a post like that belongs in the introductions thread, but welcome to the board.

[stanDarsh]

Hey Bruce, welcome to the forums.

[RzrWire]

http://img305.imageshack.us/img305/2622/psmarticlepg2edit10hz.png

I typed along side the article so it's easier to read. This snippet is from the PSM March 2006 issue that was posted by kb-smoker here (http://forums.e-mpire.com/showthread.php?t=51672). Now we know Sony is pushing developers for a fall release state side. We also know that Ken Kutaragi on a few occasions has said he will not release the PS3 if he feels the games are not ready. Ken does not want the kind of rushed games that plagued the PS2 launch back in 2000. So with that being said and if enough developers tell Ken Kutaragi that their games need more polish time (Debugging, Control Tweaks, AI Fixes, Better Online Implimentation, ect...); would anyone really be that disappointed if the PS3 launch date had to be pushed back to a winter release?

Autumn/Fall (Northern Hemisphere): September 22, 2006 - December 21, 2006
Winter (Northern Hemisphere): December 21, 2006 - March 20, 2006


Unless Sony has an unexpected early launch date announcement during the "Feb. Surprise" let's just assume fall is the official launch period for PS3 in the U.S. My strong hunch would be Mid. October/November time frame. Now if by some chance enough developers push Sony to launch the PS3 in winter; I myself would not be terribly disappointed. Sure I'd feel a little depressed about the situation but 2006 is suited to be one of the best years for the PS2. We've got titles like: Black, FFVII: Dirge of Cerberus, FFXII, Kingdom Hearts II, Metal Gear Solid 3: Subsistence, OKAMI, and Shadow Hearts: From the New World. On top of all this I still have to finish Silent Hill 4! While an early release for PS3 would be heavenly, I'll have plenty of AAA games to choose from on PS2 that will take me there.

[xbdestroya]

I'm right with you Jag - in fact I've always thought the US would probably be Fall. What I'm really interested to know though is when they'll decide to launch it in Japan, essentially pre or post E3.

[frosty]

My guess is May 17. Don't know why, but that date has stuck in the back of my mind since E3 05'.

[RzrWire]

I'm right with you Jag - in fact I've always thought the US would probably be Fall. What I'm really interested to know though is when they'll decide to launch it in Japan, essentially pre or post E3.

I believe the launch date will depend on what we see during the "Feb. Surprise." If the Feb. Event has a good showing of video & playable demos, like a miniature E3, then I would expect a pre-E3 launch. However, if the Feb. Event is geared more towards the PS3s technology and functionality then I would definitely expect a post-E3 launch. Now after reading the PSM article posted by kb-smoker, my inclination has pointed me in the direction of a post-E3 launch. There is too much information and possibilities on the technological/functional side of things, as well as the games themselves, for the PS3 that Sony needs two separate events; hence the restructuring of the Feb. Event.

My strong belief for Sony to allow PSM to run this article is because they want to give gamers a sneak preview of what will be showcased at the Feb. Event without actually saying it. We have to remember that many magazines, including PSM, have signed strict NDA contracts with Sony, and only Sony themselves can tell certain publishers which information they want to release. The timing for the PSM article is almost too perfect to be coincidence. From the PSM scans we have, they talk about a lot of the features and interactions the PS3 will have and be capable of.

Example:
1) Online Service like “Live” – Only on a much larger scale according to Sony
2) Full DVR Functionality – Along the lines of “TiVO”
3) Location Free Player Functionality – Download videos, watch movies, ect… on PSP
4) Online Media Center – Downloadable content on a scale larger than Microsoft’s
5) Blu-Ray Player
6) PSP/PS3 Interactivity and Non-Gaming Applications

Unfortunately we don't have the whole story. We are missing a few pages from the PSM article which would have delved further into the PSP - PS3 connectivity.

Quote From Article:
We have more on PSPs non-gaming functions, and what Sony is planning to do with them, in the next few pages.

There are also functions that were not mentioned in the article that will be playing an important role for the PS3 now and in the future.

Example:
1) HDD and Linux - Will the future also include turning this gaming powerhouse into a full blown computer?
2) EyeToy 2 - Will Sony's "Motion Portrait" be integrated into the PS3? How would it impact games/gamers alike?
3) EyeToy 2 Ext. - After seeing the EyeToy Demo at E3. What other possibilities lie ahead (games and beyond)?
4) PSP/PS3 Gaming Applications - To what extent will the PSPs role be? How effectively can it be used in-game?
5) WiFi, BlueTooth, and USB Ports - Beyond controllers and PSP, what other uses will they server in the future?
6) The CELL and RSX - How will they both interact within the PS3 and its applications? What are the final specs?

With the amount of applications the PS3 is capable of doing and what's in store for the future, E3 2006 seems like the wrong place for all this. The reschedualed Feb. Event seems like the perfect time and place for this type of information. Demonstrations of all this technology takes time and would leave room for little else (even over a 3 day period). E3 2006 would then serve its own purpose and play host to playable games, previews, launch date, pricing, ect. (Feb. Event may have launch date; no pricing). We also have to keep in mind that Sony & Ken Kutaragi are in no particular rush to launch the console. Therefore my strong premonitions and hunch plays out like this...

PS3 Launch Schedual:
Japan - Spring 2006 (Post-E3 May to 3rd Week June)
USA - Fall 2006 (Mid. October to Late November)
Europe, Australia, New Zealand - Winter 2007 Time Period (Beg. February to Late March)
Other Territories - Late Summer to Early Fall 2007

Spring (Northern Hemisphere): March 20, 2006 to June 21, 2006
Summer (Northern Hemisphere): June 21, 2006 - September 22, 2006
Autumn/Fall (Northern Hemisphere): September 22, 2006 - December 21, 2006
Winter (Northern Hemisphere): December 21, 2006 - March 20, 2006

PS3 Launch Prices (Prices Will Drop Over Time):
$399.99 USD + Tax
$49.99 - $59.99 USD + Tax

[Crossbar]

I think a fall launch in the US seems more and more likely, with September-October as a sweet spot time. Here's some more indications.

Gamestop wants you to play Playstation 3 games October 1st

A few days ago, Gamestop put thirty Playstation 3 games on its website for preorder. Thirty of the titles claim availability on October 1st, 2006, with Metal Gear Solid 4 available December 1, 2006. Unfortunately, after getting burned on a preorder XBOX 360 preorder, it will be a long time before I preorder something again from Gamestop.

October 1st, 2006:

I-8
Condemned: Criminal Origins
Dark Sector
Devil May Cry 4
Dirty Harry
Dog Tag
Eyedentify
Fifth Phantom Saga
Fight Night Round 3
Formula 1
Gundam World
Heavenly Sword
Killing Day
Killzone 2
Metronome
MotorStorm
NioH
Possession
Project Delta
Psychopath
Scarface: The World is Yours
Spider Man 3
Stranglehold
Tekken
The Darkness
The Getaway 3
Theseis
Vision Gran Turismo
Warhawk

December 1st, 2006:

Metal Gear Solid 4
http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=622

[frosty]

That is one of the best launch lineups I've ever seen if it's true. That is awesome.

[Crossbar]

That is one of the best launch lineups I've ever seen if it's true. That is awesome.
Actually I think that lineup is partly whishful thinking. I hardly think a new GT will be released this year, even though I would love to see it happen.
I find it strange that Unreal Tournament is missing, since the PC version will be released this spring, it should be fairly finished by fall for the PS3.

I guess we shouldn't pay to much attention to that list more than as a bold hint.

[RzrWire]

^ I agree

[Pro A.]

I still wager that MGS4 won't come until 2007 mainly because Kojima is a detail freak and the prior three installments came out every third year in November: the Star Wars effect.

[RzrWire]

*Note* I will be posting more information later today. Stay tuned......

[venomv]

That is one of the best launch lineups I've ever seen if it's true. That is awesome.

I don't think there is any chance in the world that is the launch line-up, probably not even first year for all of those games.

Not to mention why are they calling Vision Gran Turismo a game?

[Infernal]

Not to mention why are they calling Vision Gran Turismo a game?
I was wondering that too, isnt Vision Gran Turismo just a quick trailer they made to show that their vision for future GT's is to have alot more cars on the track at once and to make the "people" aspect of the game far more detailed.

[masonite]

i think vision gran turismo is in the same vein as the GT 2000 tech demo for ps2. i really doubt they'll make a GT4/vision gran turismo for ps3 - they'll be focusing on GT5, another GT4 would just be a waste.

[Infernal]

i think vision gran turismo is in the same vein as the GT 2000 tech demo for ps2. i really doubt they'll make a GT4/vision gran turismo for ps3 - they'll be focusing on GT5, another GT4 would just be a waste.
Speaking of which, whens the online version of GT4 coming out, and when is GT Mobile coming out these days?

[RzrWire]

In December and January (One From September) there were a couple of good articles relating to the PS3's release date that I felt needed to be posted here for reference. One of the most recent and relavent articles was done post-C.E.S. by Forbes.com. This is by far one of the most intuitive and informative articles I've seen on PS3 recently. I won't post the entire article, only key parts relating to this thread.

1st Article (Exerts): Forbes.com
Sony's PS3 release date in question - analysts (http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/afx/2006/01/17/afx2453335.html)
01.17.2006, 01:28 AM
SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) - What Sony Corp. Chief Executive Howard Stringer didn't say at the recent Consumer Electronics Show about Sony's PlayStation 3 video game console spoke volumes about the key product's timetable, analysts said.

Analysts now expect the product's US launch in the second half of 2006, although Sony may get a Japanese version out during the 'Spring 2006' launch window that the technology giant first predicted last year.

It's funny how speculative many of these analysts got when very little information was released on PS3 at C.E.S. The part in bold I thought was kind of interesting. Why is it only now that these analysts are expecting a 2nd half 2006 launch in the U.S.? Everyone else has been expecting this since the PS3 was announced at E3 2005 and the assumption was/is Japan is the intended Spring 2006 launch territory.

Any delays could make it much harder for Sony next holiday season as it races to put out its own new product to take on Microsoft Corp.'s Xbox 360 in the market for video game players.

And Sony faces a manufacturing challenge related to its switch to more-powerful computer chips, just as Microsoft did. Even the most optimistic analysts say Sony will wait and miss its predicted launch window to ensure it maximizes the ratio of usable chips per silicon wafer, better known as a chip's yield, before Sony begins mass production.

Those who keep regular tabs on this forum know that CELL has a few things going for it that already improve its yield: 1) Disabled SPE for redundancy 2) Stabilized 90nm manufacturing technology through mass production of PSP chips (In this (http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/english/NEWS_EN/20050426/104211/) article by TechOn posted by Crossbar here (http://forums.e-mpire.com/showpost.php?p=973153&postcount=138)). The only real uncertainties, and probable cause for concern, are the RSX and Blu-Ray drive seeing as how we have no solid information that I know of on how production progress is going with these two.

After touring the Sony booth at CES, analyst William Drewry of Credit Suisse First Boston wrote that 'the decision as to whether to delay the PS3 launch has yet to be made and is dependent on (improving its chip yield).

'We view any potential delay as being one to two months rather than six months duration,' wrote Drewry.

Probably one of the more level headed comments I've seen an analyst make lately. Drewry's statement I highlighted in bold isn't the only major dependant factor for a delayed launch. If Ken and/or enough developers feel their games aren't up to par and ready for the expected PS3 launch date then I might expect a delay.

For his part, chief executive of Sony Computer Entertainment of America Kaz Hirai in his keynote dubbed the PS3: 'a key pillar of Sony growth in 2006.'

2006 being the key year folks. Remember the rumors of PS3 in 2007? Click here (http://www.joystiq.com/2005/10/29/ps3-in-2007-bbc-hooked-lined-sinkered-on-ps3-launch-date/) for original article and source of rumor. That would be close to financial suicide for Sony with how much they've got invested into this system. Not to mention the fact that XBox 360 is somewhat on store shelves and Revolution supposedly due out this year.

During Take-Two Interactive Software's recent fourth-quarter earnings conference call, chief financial officer Karl Winter said he believes the introduction of the PS3 will 'occur near the end of our fiscal year.' Take-Two's fiscal year ends Oct. 31.

Seems the most likely and fits nicely with my prediction of a U.S. launch in Fall 2006 (Mid. October to Late November).

If video game developers encounter production hiccups and would-be launch titles are pushed out, then Sony could be better suited to launch in Japan with fewer titles, another analyst said.

I'd have to agree because even if there are only 6-7 PS3 games available at launch, the demand alone for the console itself will be enough to drive a sell-out situation in a day or two max. Besides all Sony really needs is at least one AAA title and/or a small handful of A games.

Sony's Stringer has maintained that the PS3 would contain a Blu-Ray player. Yet at CES, electronics powerhouses Samsung and Pioneer announced Blu-Ray players that would cost 1,000 and 1,800 usd, respectively.

Those costs won't fly among video game buyers, especially with the Xbox 360 going for as little as 300 usd for a scaled-down version. Most analysts expect the PS3 unit to be priced at 400 usd: a loss-leader for Sony, but competitive with the Xbox 360, which does not have an internal HD-DVD drive.

For people still expecting a launch price of $600 plus need to wake up. PS3 will be priced to compete. Guaranteed.

2nd Article (In Full): GameSHOUT.com
Sony PS3 delay is pure speculation (http://www.gameshout.com/news/012006/article2274.htm)
Posted Jan 3, 2006, 9:31 AM ET
Speculations have hit the community over a Sony PlayStation 3 missed spring launch date.

About two months ago, we at GameSHOUT fell into the same speculation that the Sony PlayStation 3 would not be released until 2007. A few days later, Sony contacted GameSHOUT and told us that they were still on track for a Spring 2006 launch date.

As of this morning, January 3rd, 2006, Sony again informed GameSHOUT that the Sony PS3 will be released in May 2006, and that the recent reports of a delay are pure "myths".

During the weekend, many sites and news agencies have reported that the Sony PlayStation 3 is full of bugs, and that the game machine is not ready for the Spring 2006 launch. However, please keep in mind that these are pure speculations.

Notice how much of the rumour is based on a "March 2006" launch. Sony never told us on what month the launch will occur.

Unless Sony says otherwise, don't take any notice to anyone else that's claiming to know the facts or the scoop. There are tons of people out there misleading the public. If there is a change in the 2006 Sony PS3 launch, we'll know about it.

They have posted many things like this in the past. So far Sony Execs have backed up their claims indirectly by saying time and time again that PS3 is on schedual for a Spring 2006 launch (Territory unknown - Japan likely). What caught my attention was the release month being quoted as "May". This had peaked my interest even further after my first discovery which I will discuss in a separate post.

3rd Article (Exerts): GameIndustry.biz
Sony clarifies Stringer's PS3 comments (http://www.gamesindustry.biz/news.php?aid=11719)
Ellie Gibson 13:56 23/09/2005
Speaking to GamesIndustry.biz, a spokesperson for Sony Computer Entertainment has clarified comments made by CEO Howard Stringer recently regarding a spring launch for PS3.

“Ken Kutaragi, president of SCE, announced a spring target date for the launch of PlayStation 3 at this year’s E3, and it appears that Sir Howard confirmed it at yesterday’s strategy meeting,” the spokesperson said.

“We have not yet announced detailed launch dates for each region,” he continued, adding: “If you look at how close Microsoft announced release dates to the launch of the Xbox 360, it’s rather unrealistic to expect PS3 dates now.”

4th Article (Exerts): Reuters.com (No Direct Link)
Sony adamant PS3 will launch in spring (http://news.cnet.co.uk/gamesgear/0,39029682,39194876,00.htm): CNet.co.uk (InDirect Link)
December 9th, 2005
Sony has announced that the PS3 will still be released in the Spring of 2006, despite recent comments by an EA exec that it might be delayed until Fall.

Sony Corp. on Thursday said it remained on track to roll out its PlayStation 3 game console by spring 2006 despite industry speculation that the scheduled launch could face delays.

A spokeswoman for the Blu-ray consortium said the group was still on track for a spring 2006 launch, indicating other manufacturers would be rolling out Blu-ray players at that time. “When Blu-ray launches next spring, there will be both hardware and content,” she said.

A question like this could be turned into a joke. How many times does it take Sony to officially confirm PS3s Spring 2006 release before people get a clue that nothing will change until Sony says so? I'm thinking a good foot up the ass should do the trick. Although seeing how stupid people can be, they would just be walking around with the year "2007" in their head and a sore ass.

*Changes* I updated the 3rd and 4th articles with direct links for the exerts.

[RzrWire]

There's a website called Playstation 3 Resource Centre (http://home.btconnect.com/hgi/ps3/) that I visit a couple times a month. Yet after all the times I have visited this site I never noticed the release date they have for the PS3 which is posted just to left of the webpage. It says...

PS3 Release Date?
The Sony Playstation 3 will be launched on May 15th 2006.

Why I never noticed this before I have no idea so I decided to contact the website administrator and search for answers. I had e-mailed him late in the afternoon today and I'm still waiting for the reply. I will post my questions to him/her below and hopefully I'll get a response shortly. When I do get a response I'll post the answers A.S.A.P. I am very interested in what this person has to say mainly because of the "May" quote in the GameSHOUT article I just posted above. In the meantime I wouldn't get your hopes up.

My E-Mail to Website Admin:
I was hoping you would be able to answer a few questions I had about your release date information. How did you come up with the release date of May 15th 2006? Do you have a person on the inside and how close is he/she to the people that make those decisions? If so can you elaborate a little instead of being completely vague? Did you get this information from an old article a while back? If so what was the source of the info? Or was this something that you came up with based on your opinions and observations? I am looking to satisfy my own curiosity and your release date peaked my interest. Please e-mail me at your earliest convenience. Thanks you......

JAG~MeOff =)

[warmachine]

You guessed it, news from gamefront (http://www.gamefront.de):


German


Koei spricht über PS3-Termin

10.02.06 - Kenji Matsubara, Executive Officer von Koei, hat auf der 'AOGC 2006' über den Erscheinungstermin der PlayStation3 gesprochen. Sony gibt den Auslieferungstermin mit Frühjahr 2006 an, was dem Zeitraum vom 21.03.06 bis 20.06.06 entspricht.

Matsubara sagt, dass zwar immer von einem Termin im Frühling die Rede ist, doch könnte es ein furchtbar heißer Frühling sein, wenn die PS3 ausgeliefert wird. Vielleicht erscheint die PlayStation3 deshalb erst im Juni oder Sommer.

Von Koei selbst werden erst im kommenden Geschäftsjahr Next Generation Spiele erscheinen, das am 01.04.06 beginnt.



English


Koei talks about PS3-release

10.02.06 - Kenji Matsubara, Executive Officer of Koei, talked at the 'AOGC 2006' about the PS3s releasedate. Sony states a spring 2006 releasedate, which would be a timeframe from 21.03.06 to20.06.06.

Matsubara said, that Sony talks about a springrelease, however it could get a very hot spring the PS3 is released in. So the PS3 may be released in June or Summer.

Next-Gen-titels from Koei are going to be released next fiscalyear, which begins with 01.04.06.


And yet again, a very bad translation into english.

[RzrWire]

AirRaid posted an article from Computer & VideoGame (CVG) that gives us further proof of a post-E3 2006 launch date for PS3. Click here (http://forums.e-mpire.com/showpost.php?p=979006&postcount=31) for AirRaid's post. Unfortunately after scouring CVG's website and a few Google searches later I could not find a direct link to this article. If anyone knows please let me know and I will add it to this post.

PS3 TO BREAK COVER IN TAIPEI (http://www.computerandvideogames.com/news/news_story.php?id=134026) : CVG.com
(Thursday 9th February 2006 @ 12:55pm)

Sony is rolling the PS3 out for the Taipei Games Show - but will
attendees get hands-on?

Sony is poised to give the PlayStation 3 another public outing - at the
Taipei Game Show, which is scheduled to take place between February 16
and 20.

According to the Chinese-language Commercial Times, "Sony's exhibit
will occupy a total of 80 booths at the TGS show, including 20 booths
allocated exclusively for the PS3." Considering that, at the PS3's TGS
outing last September, Sony devoted the vast majority of its
floor-space to the PSP and PS2, it seems the company finally prepared
to ditch its coyness concerning the next-gen console.

Whether visitors to the Taiwanese show will be the first to get
hands-on time with the PS3 - rather than the rolling demos that have
been shown up until now - is unknown, however. Sony is currently
trotting out the official line that it won't make any comments about
the console until E3 in May.

However, with Microsoft due to launch its Xbox 360 in Taiwan on March
16, the Taipei Game Show provides Sony with an ideally-timed
opportunity for a cheeky spoiler.

*Note* I found and posted the direct link from the CVG article.

[Miyahon]

Honestly anyone who believes a japanese launch BEFOR E3 is really pushing it. We haven't even seen playable demos yet. They aren't even on the final beta kits.

I say Fall 06 for US, Summer for Japan at the earliest mark my words, I'm willing to bet on it.

[Fillibuster]

Hey Jag~Meoff, I noticed that the date is also in bold, so they obviously want us to see it. Patiently waiting for his email reply...

[frosty]

final beta kits? what the heck is that? kinda a contradiction. Final kits are out, or at least the final components that devs will need (full cell, RSX and memory) late may/early june (still spring) is when it will be released. as one dev stated about the release date in a recent interview "it's going to be a hot spring" ( end of spring, closer to summer)

[RzrWire]

So far I've e-mailed the web administrator at the PS3 Resource Centre three times and one more time tonight. Hopefully I'll get a response before Sony announces the release date themselves.

I added the following to my e-mail so he gets the message:
P.S. Sending you multiple letters just in case you miss my e-mail. Again please e-mail me back when you get the chance. Thanks