Sony aims for spring launch of PS3 but could delay (Another Report)

[Breakpoint]

Sony aims for spring launch of PS3 but could delay

TOKYO, Feb 20 (Reuters) - www.PS3Gaming.com - Sony Corp.'s (6758.T: Quote, Profile, Research) game division said on Monday it still aimed to launch its next-generation PlayStation 3 (PS3) video game console this spring, but the timing could be pushed back if it is unable to finalise the technology specifications.

"We're aiming for spring, but we haven't announced specific regions," a spokeswoman for Sony Computer Entertainment said, adding that some of the detailed specifications of the PlayStation 3 have not yet been finalised, such as those related to the Blu-ray drive and the input and output of video and sound.

"We're waiting for them until the last possible minute, but the launch could be pushed back if they're not decided soon," she said.

The company's shares fell as much as 4.4 percent on Monday after Merrill Lynch said in a research note that the launch of the PS3 might be delayed by six to 12 months and the costs for materials could approach $900 per unit.

Shares of Sony ended the morning session down 2.2 percent at 5,380 yen ($45.50), underperforming the Tokyo stock market's electrical machinery index, which was down 0.6 percent.

The launch of PS3 has been the subject of heavy speculation in the industry. The console will be competing with Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) Xbox 360, which went on sale last November, and Nintendo Co. Ltd.'s (7974.OS: Quote, Profile, Research) Revolution, which is expected to come out later this year.

If the PS3 is not ready in time, the Sony spokeswoman added, the company will choose the next best timing for the launch.

Merrill Lynch last week downgraded its rating on Sony to "sell" from "neutral", saying in a research note that Sony could see its earnings decline in the business year from April.

"If the launch is delayed, it will be beneficial in the short term, but will be negative from the standpoint of share price," said analyst Hitoshi Kuriyama in the note. "If it is on time, the PS3 will weigh on the company's profitability."

Most analysts currently expect Sony to launch the PS3 in summer in Japan, followed by a U.S. launch before Thanksgiving. They expect a launch in Europe in early 2007.

"Everyone knows that the launch schedule will probably be delayed," said Takeshi Tajima, an analyst at BNP Paribas, adding that game development has also been delayed because many of the specifications have not been finalised.

Source: Reuters

Another report, SONY says in this one that a delay would only occur if one of the other companies fails in producing on time.

[Handycrap101]

Uhhh... Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't that what a delay is. I think it's pretty self explanatory that a delay would occur if they aren't ready.

Heres some interesting quotes though to get you thinking:

"We're aiming for spring, but we haven't announced specific regions,"

Could a US launch still be in the air?

some of the detailed specifications of the PlayStation 3 have not yet been finalised, such as those related to the Blu-ray drive and the input and output of video and sound.

RSX was finished, was it not? And isn't Cell handeling the sound?

The company's shares fell as much as 4.4 percent on Monday after Merrill Lynch said in a research note that the launch of the PS3 might be delayed by six to 12 months and the costs for materials could approach $900 per unit.

Ouch... no wonder they were so quick to deny the Merrill Lynch statements.

"Everyone knows that the launch schedule will probably be delayed," said Takeshi Tajima, an analyst at BNP Paribas, adding that game development has also been delayed because many of the specifications have not been finalised.

Everyone? I think not... These analysts seem to be showing they have the easiest job on the planet. They can say an line of crap and a journalist will present it out there as if it's fact. As for the game's being delayed, weren't the final dev kits already shipped? I thought the specs are final but they just haven't been presented to the public.

[Breakpoint]

I think the Input and Output of sound refers to the HDMI possibly? not sure.

[koldfuzion]

yes I think they are referring to HDMI industry standards that they will use or some other I/O device, but HDMI is the only one I can think of that moves around a lot in terms of standards. I'm surprised if that would hold things up but who knows, could be one of these internal industry quagmires they walked into...

[Ronin]

Merrill Lynch said in a research note that the launch of the PS3 might be delayed by six to 12 months and the costs for materials could approach $900 per unit.


I posted in a thread a few weeks ago that the PS3 will cost around $900 to manufacture. I even estimated the price for separate components. I guess these "analysts" do their research by browsing these forums. :nono: :moon:

Anyways, I sincerely hope that everyone on this board would just stop hoping for a Spring release. It is just false hope. We have to look at the facts and decide. The fact is the PS3 is not ready for its time. We shoud all blame Microsoft for ruining this next generation experience.

Microsoft jumped the gun by rushing their "nextgen" system and selling them lowball. This in turn forces Sony to have to rush their system and pressure into matching the 360's price. We all know how crappy the 360 is. Sony has decided not to take the same route by rushing but a different one by taking their time.

[Infernal]

I posted in a thread a few weeks ago that the PS3 will cost around $900 to manufacture. I even estimated the price for separate components. I guess these "analysts" do their research by browsing these forums. :nono: :moon:
The PS3 will not cost 900$ to manufacture! I would bet so much money on that. There is no reason to rule out a spring release either. Everything in the PS3 is ready, the RSX, the Cell, the ports, everything. The only thing this article is stating that isnt finalized is the HDMI (Sony stated they want to use 16-bit HDMI if it is ready in time), and the Blu-Ray because no one knows what speed the drive in the PS3 will be, 2x-6x probably.
Anyways, I sincerely hope that everyone on this board would just stop hoping for a Spring release. It is just false hope. We have to look at the facts and decide. The fact is the PS3 is not ready for its time. We shoud all blame Microsoft for ruining this next generation experience.
Look at what facts? Everything is just random analysts that are ALWAYS wrong, not once have they been right about how much a Sony system will cost. There really is no false hopes, the only false hopes is if people are expecting a world wide launch I spring, I personally only expect a spring launch in Japan.

[venomv]

The only FACTS we have are Sony saying it will release in Spring and them constantly repeating it, so what I'm I supposed to look at to bring me to your conclusion.

[pari]

I posted in a thread a few weeks ago that the PS3 will cost around $900 to manufacture. I even estimated the price for separate components. I guess these "analysts" do their research by browsing these forums. :nono: :moon:

Anyways, I sincerely hope that everyone on this board would just stop hoping for a Spring release. It is just false hope. We have to look at the facts and decide. The fact is the PS3 is not ready for its time. We shoud all blame Microsoft for ruining this next generation experience.

Microsoft jumped the gun by rushing their "nextgen" system and selling them lowball. This in turn forces Sony to have to rush their system and pressure into matching the 360's price. We all know how crappy the 360 is. Sony has decided not to take the same route by rushing but a different one by taking their time.

Vote with your wallet, do not buy 360 and do not let your friends buy 360. That way MS would hear the message and not rush their nextgen system next time.
We consumers have absolute control this time around, it is not like computer world where MS has the control. So let us rock, its pay back time.

[Red_Eyes]

So basically, PS3 is done and ready to roll. But Sony can't roll it out yet, because Blu-Ray specifications isn't finalized yet.

[VG Aficionado]

Hmmm... I remember Ken Kutaragi said a while ago that Sony could start manufacturing PS3 immediately. Now we know from IBM official announcements that Cell production has been going nicely for some time now and we also know from Nvidia that RSX development has been completed (although we don't know when exactly, and it doesn't mean it just happened last week, but earlier than that of course). I guess RSX has been produced for a while now too, at least in small quantities for the final development kits.

One could argue the most critical components in PS3 will be Cell, RSX and the Blu-ray drive. Right now, I'm pretty sure Cell and RSX are well on their way to be mass-produced to be later assembled on final PS3 home consoles, so I'm not really worried about those two. However, I'm a bit concerned about the Blu-ray drive.

In my opinion, the Blu-ray drive is most definately finished, the mechanical part to say the least. Maybe they'll put a few small finishing touches here and there, but right now I'm sure mass production of PS3 Blu-ray drives is being readied. So the question is whether these will comply Blu-ray's specification. Shouldn't that be a matter of software, or more specifically, firmware? If that was the case, should that slow manufacturing down to a significant extent?

On "secondary" components (RAM, bridges, controllers, etc.): I'm sure Sony is ready to manufacture all of them.

[cybergrue]

So basically, PS3 is done and ready to roll. But Sony can't roll it out yet, because Blu-Ray specifications isn't finalized yet.

It looks like they have (just) come to an agreement on the spec. :pepper:
IBM, Intel Corporation, Microsoft, Panasonic (Matsushita Electric), Sony, Toshiba, The Walt Disney Company, and Warner Bros. Studios today announced the immediate availability of AACS (ADVANCED ACCESS CONTENT SYSTEM) under interim licensing agreements. (http://www.digitaltvdesignline.com/news/180205549;jsessionid=NEIEBOLTHCBWEQSNDBCSKHSCJUMEK JVN)

[Kensington]

I think what he meant by specs was the drive speed, 1x, 2x or 4x, those are the specs I want to know.

[woundingchaney]

When I read things like this it pretty much confirms a delay in my mind, if Sony was on the ball and even with a few doubts of missing the Spring launch Im willing to bet there would of never been a statement like this released. Its coming down to the wire for Sony and pressure is being applied by not only the media but fans as well, I personally look for a delay but sincerely hope there isnt going to be one. As long as I can get a PS3 by Winter of '06 then Im definetely a launch buyer, however any time beyond that may cause me to reconsider my initial thoughts.



For the Love of God give me the PS3 Sony.:aimhappy:

[Z]

I think what would really determin the precise launch date is how ready is the potential launch line up. something like AACS can be agreed upon and go to production immediately afterwords.

[Viper]

It was noted before that none of the major game developers have launch titles coming, or at least very few.

If that's your criteria, then there is your reason for delay.

[Z]

It was noted before that none of the major game developers have launch titles coming, or at least very few.
I am thinking fairly simple things like the Majorah (spelling) games, Fantavision-like, I.Q. Final (God I loved that game! played it under the Jap name' Kurutchi Final' or something like that). and a few sports titles.

Activision and Koie have both announced two titles each for launch. I presume EA will be there with atleast 4 titles. I don't think a RR game is out of the question especially since X2 got it for launch.

[rog27]

RSX was finished, was it not? And isn't Cell handeling the sound?


When they were referring to Audio/Vidoe standards they were referring to the new transmission standards for HDMI/HDCP transmission devices, one of which will reside in the PS3. No, this device is not part of RSX...but rather interfaces physically with RSX Audio/Video I/O. For reference, this is what the transmitter device will look and how it will work in the scheme of things:

http://www.hardwaresecrets.com/imageview.php?image=3095

[Miyahon]

If the PS3 launches befor E3 i will wear ANY user submitted sig for a week no matter how insulting it is.

[Domination]

Before Sony showed up at E3, it was assumed that they had nothing to show. To say the PS3 won't be available in whatever territory by spring because we don't know anything is rather silly, IMO. I have seen this sort a thing so many times by them already that it's not even worth debating anymore. The manufacturing of the console also sounds way too unrealistic.

[Hylian-Advocate]

I haven't read everyones comments.....

But doesn't the "spring" release only apply to Japan?

[VG Aficionado]

IBM's Octopiler, or, why the PS3 is running late

2/25/2006 10:00:04 PM

All afternoon I've been slogging through IBM's 25-page paper on their newly released Octopiler, and now things are clearer to me. See, Cell's greatest strength is that there's a lot of hardware on that chip. And Cell's greatest weakness is that there's a lot of hardware on that chip. So Cell has immense performance potential, but if you want to make it programable by mere mortals then you need a compiler that can ingest code written in a high-level language and produce optimized binaries that fit not just a programming model or a microarchitecture, but an entire multiprocessor system. This isn't just a tall order, or even a doctoral dissertation. It's a generation's worth of doctoral research. Meanwhile, the PS3 is due out in 2006.

Octopiler is intended to become just such a compiler—one that can take in a sequential program that's written to a unified memory model, and output binaries that make efficient use of the massive, heterogeneous system-on-a-chip that is the Cell Broadband Engine. I say "intended to become," because judging from the paper the guys at IBM are still in the early stages of taming this many-headed beast. This is by no means meant to disparage all the IBM researchers who have done yeoman's work in their practically single-handed attempts to move the entire field of computer science forward by a quantum leap. No, the Octopiler paper is full of innovative ideas to be fleshed out at a further date, results that are "promising," avenues to be explored, and overarching approaches that seem likely to bear fruit eventually. But meanwhile, the PS3 is still due out in 2006.

What IBM has in mind is what I would call a tiered approach to Cell. At Tier I, there's the "expert programmer" (IBM really means "expert programming team") who codes to the bare metal, manages memory alignment and traffic flow issues like NYC's finest, and just generally makes all the parts of the Cell scream in perfect harmony. This guy, if he exists, is going to be worth his weight in gold. No, scratch that. He'll be worth Marlon Brando's weight in diamond-studded platinum.

On Tier II is the mortal but still highly paid and very overworked C programmer, who uses branch hints, prefetching, profiling, DMA commands, and so on manually to keep code and data flowing to all the parts of the Cell, while letting the compiler handle the lower-level stuff, like register allocation, code scheduling, and optimizations.

Tier III is the domain of the programmer who can't be bothered to vectorize his own code. This guy lets the Octopiler auto-vectorize his programs for use with the Cell's SPEs. He still has quite a bit of work to do, since auto-vectorization is easier said than done. So he has to work with the compiler's feedback in order to tune his code for maximum auto-vectorization potential in order to get the best possible performance out of the SPEs.

Finally, on Tier IV is the programmer who just wants to port his single-threaded x86 program to Cell in as painless a manner as possible. This person doesn't even care to know anything about "heterogeneous multiprocessing" or any of that fancy stuff. He just wants to see "Hello World" greet him on the screen. Ok, just kidding. IBM claims the following for this highest level of Octopiler hand-holding:

The compiler provides user-guided parallelization and compiler management of the underlying memories for code and data. When the user directives are applied in a thoughtful manner by a competent user, the compiler provides significant ease of use without significantly compromising performance.

Getting Tier IV to work where the money is at. It's also going to be quite painful for IBM to achieve their stated goal of "not significantly compromising performance." I think they, or someone else, will get there eventually. Meanwhile, the PS3 is still due out in 2006.

This brings me to the question, is the PS3 launch doomed? No, of course it isn't. Developers will make something happen. That "something" just isn't at all likely to rise to the full potential of what the Cell could be capable of with another decade of industry-wide effort on heterogeneous multiprocessing systems.

The final point I want to make is that nowhere in this post have I mentioned what is perhaps the biggest challenge facing programmers who write non-deterministic applications for a highly multithreaded SoC like Cell: debugging. But I felt justified in skipping over the topic of debugging, because IBM didn't really cover it their paper.Link: http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060225-6265.html

[Crossbar]

...biggest challenge facing programmers who write non-deterministic applications....Link: http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060225-6265.html
WTF, is it called ars technica, because he talks out of his arse?

[cliffbo]

Issues with mass production of Blu-ray drives could be to blame if spring system launch is pushed back to fall.
In recent weeks, speculation that Sony would not make its previously announced spring 2006 release date for the PlayStation 3 has grown after a Merrill Lynch report predicted the new console would be pushed back until the end of the year, or perhaps later. Japanese site Sankei Web is reporting that Sony has acknowledged the possibility of a delay in the system, and that such a delay would be due to problems with the mass production of the console's built-in Blu-ray drive.

A Sony spokesperson is quoted in the article as saying, "The highest quality picture is vital to the PS3. There is a possibility of delay [to the launch] if delivery of parts is delayed."

The article suggests that if Sony does delay the system, it would put the launch off until after October in order to hit the busy holiday season. It also quotes Enterbrain president Hiokazu Hamamura as saying that if Sony hasn't started taking orders for the system by now, it would be difficult for the company to launch the PS3 in May.

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6144963.html