HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray recast

[xbdestroya]

Well now that the dust is starting to settle from the announcement, wondering what people's thoughts are on the upcoming HD-DVD vs Blu-ray situation. Without an early PS3 launch to provide a crushing response to HD-DVD, do the chances of a lengthy format war increase as HD-DVD is able to build up a base over the course of the year? Or are the prices of the players going to be so high this year that for all intents and purposes, whatever ground is gained this year by either camp will be irrelevant?

[Danji Ikari]

I would have it to say that it's all pretty much irrelevant. Not too sound naive, at all, but the PS3 sales will be the most substantial players sold. Not only because they are cheap but because normal people buy PS3s and they show Blu-Ray movies to other normal people. These people take up the majority of purchases of any format so for BD to get that much exposure over HD-DVD is incredibly good for them.

[frosty]

Lets not forget to mention that, according to what I have read, HD-DVD discs and players are retailing for the same ammount of $ as Blu-Ray. $25-$30 per disc and $500-$1000 per player. So, although there may be a few technophiles to early-adopt HD-DVD, I don't think it will hit mainstream until PS3 winds up in 6 million homes by the end of the fiscal year. There will not be that many HD-DVD players out there by then, I can guarantee that.

[speed stick]

$25-$30 per disc and $500-$1000 per player.

Those are high prices for a movie. I will wait about a year probably for the price to drop.

[Goki]

I actaully think its much better buisness wise, reason being people don't usually go over to something they dont know much about. Believe it or not a lot of the early adopters of PS2 were infact interested in the DVD player option, which coupled with gameplay of course lures the customer in. Now this was a while after standalone DVD players were released and people actually knew a bit about DVD's.

With BD I think the same strategy should apply. Have the format out beforehand so people at least hear about it. Then when they find out theres one out there a bit cheaper than the rest, and able to do much more, they go for the bait (damn hope i didnt make it sound like customers are a bunch of fish hehe)

[xbdestroya]

That's a good point Goki.

I guess though what I would most wonder is having been cited by a number of studios as the tipping reason for them to go Blu-ray, would the PS3 delay cause previously exclusive Blu-ray backers to perhaps launch on HD-DVD as well in the meantime? Everything else aside, right now studio exclusivity is one of the strongest things the BDA has going for them in the fight against HD-DVD, and if all the studios go multi-format, that might lead down a path that will be hard to come back from down the line, increasing the chances of a slow war of format attrition.

[Raitei]

"the end of the fiscal year."
Really, isn't the end of the fiscal year the 31st of march? if so, i would expect more than the 6mil shipped in november to be installed in households.

I agree with goki on this.

Personally, i see a few early adopters, just to say theyre up to date. Get the wrong format or something. then sue the movie business

[xbdestroya]

Well actually the 6 million will be between now and March 31st though, rather than at launch. So it'll actually be probably 3 million or thereabouts for the launch window.

[Infernal]

Speaking of Blu-ray, I was wondering if this opens new possibilities for the speed of the Blu-ray drive in the PS3. I mean now that its launching in November couldn't they put a 6x or even an 8x drive in by then?

[CreativeWriter]

Speaking of Blu-ray, I was wondering if this opens new possibilities for the speed of the Blu-ray drive in the PS3. I mean now that its launching in November couldn't they put a 6x or even an 8x drive in by then?

I think they need at least 4x. Those 1 and 2x transfer rates look pretty abysmal when you think about how the data will be uncompressed and massive. I don't want 40 second load times every time I open a new door in Neverwinter Nights 2 (which I'm hoping will come to PS3).

[Z]

it is safe to expect PS3 to be the cheaper and thus fastes selling BD player. PS3 should give BD penetration a big boost.
it looks like PS3's contribution to BD won't come out of the gate. so BD and HD-DVD palyers will have to compete alone for the time being. and even after PS3's launch, shortages will most likely hinder its advantage for some time.

this will help HD-DVD have an easier race. but keep in mind that the price and availability of high-def players along with PS3's availability will play major roles in this.

[Mitri]

if this chip that i posted about in the general sony thread gets any publicity then this war may come to an end with both camps being winners.

http://forums.e-mpire.com/showthread.php?t=53532

i think.

[liver_kick]

it is safe to expect PS3 to be the cheaper and thus fastes selling BD player. PS3 should give BD penetration a big boost.

I was encouraged that Kutaragi seemed to go out of his way to state that PS3 wont be a "poor man's Blu Ray" at the conference. From what I read he was pretty keen on the fact that the processing capabilities of the system (Cell+RSX) and the HDMI spec will make it cutting-edge as far as BRD players are concerned. If it turns out thats its actually one of the best players on the market, that could certainly win over some of the AV enthusiast crowd who are normally loath to use a game console in their home entertainment center. And in a sense it could make the PS3 a bit of a reverse trojan horse for that portion of the market. Not sure how Sony's hardware partners on BR are going to appreciate being smoked like that though, and for likely over half the price!

[Z]

Not sure how Sony's hardware partners on BR are going to appreciate being smoked like that though, and for likely over half the price!
I would love for every HD-DVD and BD player manufactorer to get burned by PS3's price and sales so they can cut the crap and lower the prices. yes, new tech is a bit expensive. but for God's sake, paying 1000 bucks to read a disk is a bit over the top! seriously now.

[Goki]

Damn all this "PS3 not being cheap mans BD player " is starting to give new thoughts about the price. So far i haven't seen one quote from anyone to suggest PS3 is going to be cheap or at least seem cheap (it wasnt this bad even with PSP price surprise) i mean KK never went out and said "save ya money fools" Im starting to think 599 isnt far fetched now considering the CELL+RSX+BD super picture state of the art player PS3 seems to be now.

[Z]

that is exactly what they want you to think: PS3 is a premium machine that has its price.
so when they say something like 349 or 399, people think its a bargin and run for it. they did that with every PS system, but people still don't see it coming...

[liver_kick]

Im starting to think 599 isnt far fetched now considering the CELL+RSX+BD super picture state of the art player PS3 seems to be now.

I wouldn't go that far. Blu-Ray is being cloaked under the Playstation banner as a trojan horse. This is all about establishing royalties for the long haul.

The main reason the PS3 version of BR will have an advantage over other players on the market is the processing element for the blue laser in PS3 is essentially piggybacking on state of the art tech created for a game console. Cell in particular is an audio/video monster that will cut through any encoding duties they care to throw at it. With the all digital output there's nothing in any stand alone player that will be comparable from a hardware standpoint.

[Overload]

The Only thing I hope for is a laser that doesnt burn out, at least 4x read speed and the fan that doesnt make too much noise while im watching a movie.

[Ironlungz]

Since we're on this blu-ray vs HD-DVD; some things to think about.

Vista May Not Support HD DVD at Launch

by Julie Jacobson, Mar 13 2006 | 1 comments - Post your own!

Even though Microsoft officially supports HD DVD (see related blog, the company isn't sure that Vista will include native support for the next-gen DVD format.

Vista, coming in the second half of this year, is the successor of Windows XP, and includes basic and premium versions. In particular, Windows Vista Home Premium will replace Media Center Edition, and of course everyone is excited about using high-definition DVD players with MCE.

But they might have to wait. It's possible that Microsoft will rely on third parties to write the appropriate applications for high-def DVDs after Vista is launched. Or Microsoft might do it themselves, before or after the Vista launch.

A Microsoft spokesperson says, "Vista's architecture will recognize both HD DVD and Blu-ray DVD; however, current plans for Media Center support of either of these formats is unknown at this time. We do know that there will be a great HD DVD and Blu-ray DVD experience for Media Center either at Vista launch or soon after as either an extensible application or natively in MCE."

Source: http://blog.ce-pro.com/news/6966.html


Disney may support both HD DVD and Blu-ray

Posted Mar 15th 2006 3:24PM by Marc Perton
Filed under: HDTV, Home Entertainment
While Disney continues to insist that Blu-ray is a better standard and will eventually win the format war, the company seems to be edging toward a position of supporting -- or at least releasing movies in -- both HD DVD and Blu-ray formats. At a recent shareholders' meeting Disney CEO Robert Iger talked up Blu-ray, but then went on to say that the company would "probably publish in both formats." The move mirrors similar decisions by other studios, such as Warner Brothers and Paramount, both of which had originally been HD DVD-only, but later went on to declare format neutrality. And while there are still a couple of studios with exclusive ties to one format over another, most seem to be following a trend also being pursued by hardware vendors and hedging their bets. Of course, the day we see Sony Pictures release an HD DVD disc is the day the format war officially ends.

Source: engadget.com

And finally the blu-ray news some people have been waiting for....

Mar 16, 2006 - Sony Announces Pricing and Availability of Blu-ray Products

Sony today debuted its first Blu-ray Disc (BD) products in the U.S., along with details on suggested pricing and availability for some of the new offerings. These next generation devices include a stand-alone Blu-ray player, VAIO desktop and notebook computers, an aftermarket internal computer drive, and recordable/rewritable media. The BDP-S1 Blu-ray player is targeted to ship in July for about $1,000. The VAIO PC with Blu-ray Disc will be available for about $2,300. Both the VAIO RC desktop and notebook with a Blu-ray Disc drive will be available by early summer. Additionally, pre-orders for the BDP-S1 player will be available through SonyStyle.com and Sony Style retail stores, beginning on March 17. The player will also be available for pre-order at the same time through authorized internet dealers.

Source: http://www.blu-ray.com/

[xbdestroya]

Well there you have it, so soon after my wondering, we see Disney may go HD-DVD as well now.

Good finds by the way Ironlungz.

(I put them in quotes)

[woundingchaney]

Give it 6 months after the release of both formats and watch as the sparks fly.