Chances that PS3 WON'T make launch?

[Flaming_Gamer]

As the days pass, and the little countdown program on my computer warns me of the nearing launch date (Nov 17) of the PS3 I find myself becoming more and more exited for Sony's revolutionary (no pun intended) machine. Just as I'm about reach my nirvana; day dreaming about hevenly sword and RE5, I find myself worried...What if the PS3 doesn't launch on time, and what if I must be forced to wait in the current-generation for months longer?!?
True, Sony did show running PS3s @ E3; but doesn't it seem a little odd that Sony still has not given the public, or devs for that matter, all of the PS3s final specs? With less than 5 months before launch day, it would seem to me that Sony should have stuff pretty well nailed down, however, it seems things are still up in the air, and being change on the fly *cough* PS3 controller *cough*. It seems to me that Sony should already be well into production of the PS3 if they hope to hit their target numbers, but to me (I am by no means a production expert) it seems that Sony might be pushing this one a little to close to the deadline.
Another set-back for the PS3 would not only be devestating to Sony on many levels, many fans would be let down (yet again); many of which would probably move on to the next-gen pasures of the XBox360, SCEA. Sony would lose much of it's reputation as an honest company (after several oopsies). And finally Sony as a company would take a big hit in terms of investors, who (as we saw with the last set back) will take their money out of the company.
It seems to me that Sony has A LOT to loose in this next-gen war, and another set-back for the PS3 could be devistating for the SCEA and Sony as a whole. I hope against hope that Sony will come through with their proposed launch date, but we have seen them 'change their minds before.' This is where I come to you; brave forum members, to ask for your thoughts on Sony, and if they will indeed be able to reach launch day with a multi-million unit supply of shiny, black beasts for us gamers to sink our teeth (and money) into?

[Nameless]

I believe Sony will make the launch date, but the bigger question is how many units will be available on launch day???

I'm having problems believing Sony could manufacture 2 million units before launch...

[xbdestroya]

I have basically no doubt the console will hit it's launch dates - afterall, dates have been announced; that in itself is unprecedented this early on.

Announced specs don't have much to do with it IMO. They'll get the best of what they can in there, and they're probably still weighing exactly what that is.

So I voted 'of course,' though not because it's 'Sony we're talking about.' ;)

[gljvd]

The system wont slip. it will be out in november.

The only question is how many will we get ? They claim 2m for launch. We might not see that many if problems arise . But the fact that they want to launch with 2m (though who knows how real that number is) seems to indicate that they will launch this year. We may have a repeat of the usa ps2 launch where they promised 1m and we got 500k . But still even 1m world wide wouldn't be that bad , at least it will be out.

Its the games i'd worry about

[Zer0-Sum]

It will be avaliable. Please, as if Sony will push the PS3 back even farther and give Ninty an edge and Mocrosoft and bigger one. Questions is is how many will be for sale? And who will get mugged like that kid who got jacked in Japan at launch of the PS2?! So sad....

[Gaul]

They should just be like Blizzard and only give launch dates when they are sure they can meet them. Just make sure to hire extra security for the tides of angry mobs

[Viper]

I believe with fair confidence it will make the timely launch but the volume of units is cast highly in doubt.

[Handycrap101]

I'm not 100% sure cause they have been known to disapoint. This is why I voted 'Be Patient'. The picture will be more clear after GDC. Maybe even after the Sony Conference.

[Homeru]

Of course, duh, hell yeah, no doubt.

[HolyPaladin]

If I was to bet on it, I'd feel pretty comfortable gambling on Sony making their release dates.

[Lucent Beam]

I think it'll be out in November. I really think Sony & Nintendo want to be out before the other, so I don't see Sony pushing the PS3 back.
But, if they don't get it out on-time.. I don't think it will be crippling and I definitely don't think it will deter people from buying the PS3. If someone has already mentally comitted to the $600, they probably don't mind waiting longer.

[rpgamer_2k5]

The reason why the PS2 experienced a shortage is because were was a shortage in the raw resources level. The PSP experienced a shortage because Sony was being cautious in order to avoid any losses like the PSX. Sony will likely meet their numbers if they use their resources to meet this goal.

[makeitlookreal]

My guess is that the PS3 will not ship until December. I feel that they will miss the November launch date. There are just too many things they seem to be working on.

[LaLiLuLeLo]

Of course it will, because anything later is industrial seppuku for Sony.

[gljvd]

The reason why the PS2 experienced a shortage is because were was a shortage in the raw resources level. The PSP experienced a shortage because Sony was being cautious in order to avoid any losses like the PSX. Sony will likely meet their numbers if they use their resources to meet this goal.


The ps2 had shortages (With a stagared launch , not a worldwide) becuase they made huge chips on big processes. A few months after the usa launch , sony moved to a more advanced process( i believe 180nms from 220nms) which greatly increased yields .

Sony couldn't produce enough working chips which is a huge diffrence than not having thep roduction capability to make enough chips.

I think this is going to happen the same way. Sony saw what yields would be like and they moved off a spring launch. They figure in nov they could have started building stock piles in august or so so they could launch with 1-2m and keep production going untill early 2007 when thier new 65nm process comes on line and then they can up thier production to the 1m a month they expect( notice they are expecting 65nm q1 2007 just around the time they plan to have shiped 6m world wide)

[Smokey]

Only time will tell- Be paitent young Pad-won
i am a patient man :) obe-one

[Coded-Dude]

I think this is going to happen the same way. Sony saw what yields would be like and they moved off a spring launch. They figure in nov they could have started building stock piles in august or so so they could launch with 1-2m and keep production going untill early 2007 when thier new 65nm process comes on line and then they can up thier production to the 1m a month they expect( notice they are expecting 65nm q1 2007 just around the time they plan to have shiped 6m world wide)

But Cell yields are doing better than any previous CPU ever, they couldn't have imaged a better yield rate. Its other things that delayed the spring launch.....

[LinpinWangyFoot]

No problem its Sony.

[gljvd]

Care to link me to where you got that info from dude .

[Coded-Dude]

it was from a story a while back, since hten the inquirer posted a story abotu horrible yeilds....but it is the inquirer. I'll try and find the original story though for sure.

[EDIT] William Zeitler, Senior Vice President of IBM’s Systems & Technology Group: "faster than on any chip we’ve done." (http://www.joystiq.com/2006/02/09/good-news-for-ps3-launch-supply/)
;-] there you go buddy

[LinpinWangyFoot]

it was from a story a while back, since hten the inquirer posted a story abotu horrible yeilds....but it is the inquirer. I'll try and find the original story though for sure.

[EDIT] William Zeitler, Senior Vice President of IBM’s Systems & Technology Group: "faster than on any chip we’ve done." (http://www.joystiq.com/2006/02/09/good-news-for-ps3-launch-supply/)
;-] there you go buddy

game set and match! Dude we need more of this....

[gljvd]

That doesn't tell us anything about where yields are at . Just that yield learning is going faster than any chip yet.

For all we know yields started at 10% working chips per wafer and is now up to 30% working chips per wafer. It doesn't have anything to do with good yields .

Reread it my friend

told a news conference yesterday that "yield learning" on the Cell processor that forms the core of Sony's PlayStation 3 console has been "faster than on any chip we’ve done."


Once again , it gives us no knowledge on yields only on yield learning. Two diffrent things

[Coded-Dude]

Okay, so where is your info on cell yields being the reason for delay....?
IBM/Sony/Toshiba have been working on this chip for a long time now, and it has been in "production" since what - 04-05, so whats your reasoning behind said remarks. jsut cause it happended previously. Well the PS2 chip is a whole different story.

[xbdestroya]

That is all true; the yields could have been terrible to start. Still, the yields would have been in reference to 8-SPE chips rather than 7-SPE chips, of which the yields would obviously be better. And after a year and a half of fabbing and revising this chip, if they're still getting bad yields - on 90nm? - then these people have problems that go beyond Cell.

Seriously, Cell should be yielding decently enough at this point.

Anyway nothing would make me happier than if we had a PS3 silicon-yields thread, but let's try to keep this one a little more on topic and a little less focused on Cell and RSX. Especially since all of us debating are pro-November launch.

[gljvd]

Okay, so where is your info on cell yields being the reason for delay....?
IBM/Sony/Toshiba have been working on this chip for a long time now, and it has been in "production" since what - 04-05, so whats your reasoning behind said remarks. jsut cause it happended previously. Well the PS2 chip is a whole different story.

From the inquier and other discusions around the web. I don't think they are horrible. However I don't think they are stellar .

That is all true; the yields could have been terrible to start. Still, the yields would have been in reference to 8-SPE chips rather than 7-SPE chips, of which the yields would obviously be better. And after a year and a half of fabbing and revising this chip, if they're still getting bad yields - on 90nm? - then these people have problems that go beyond Cell.



Yes of course , I was only pointing out that the article had nothing to do with the actual yields being good or bad , just the yield learning


Seriously, Cell should be yielding decently enough at this point.



Well we really don't know

Above you point out that was for 1x8 chips . however what speed ? It could have been 2ghz chips . Would disabling 1spu give u 1.2 ghz improvement ?

There is just to much that we don't know

Anyway nothing would make me happier than if we had a PS3 silicon-yields thread, but let's try to keep this one a little more on topic and a little less focused on Cell and RSX. Especially since all of us debating are pro-November launch.


Of course . We simply slipped into how many we thought we'd see.

[digital neXus]

Sony is just doing the final touches :)