Predicted Console sales in North America by IDG

[Crossbar]

Here are some predictions of console sales in North America. Seems reasonable to me.

6116

Xbox 360
"Sales of Xbox 360 hardware have remained on a path to achieving an estimated 4.9 million units sold through in North America in 2006 – a significant improvement over the original Xbox’s first full calendar year of 3.4 million units.

However, sales still trail the PS2’s impressive “GTA‐fueled” 6.1 million units in its first full calendar year of 2001, and the system continues to be outsold on a monthly basis by the PS2 today. The 2006 holiday season will prove particularly important as the industry’s first live test of next‐ generation console market share.

IDG does not anticipate a price reduction on the core Xbox 360 hardware in 2006, but bundling at the retailer level seems likely. Sales should also benefit from the constricted supply of both PS3 and Wii. The installed base of the Xbox 360 is also projected to lead all other next‐gen platforms until 2009."

ESTIMATED NORTH AMERICA HARDWARE SALES and INSTALLED BASE


2006
4.9 Million / 5.6 million

2007
6 Million / 11.6 million

2008
5.3 million / 16.9 million

2009
4.1 million / 21.1 million

2010
2.8 million / 23.9 million

PlayStation 3

"The PlayStation 3 launch continues to weather difficult news however, such as the delay of the European launch to Spring 2007 and a pre‐launch price reduction on PS3 hardware in the Japan market generally perceived to be reactive to Japanese consumer sentiment. IDG has adjusted its forecast model to account for the new launch statistics, and the ripple‐through effects are substantial.

Sony may be unable to catch Microsoft’s installed base lead from the Xbox 360 until 2010. For the industry as a whole, however, the smaller launch inventory is not expected to significantly impact total market size for 2006 or 2007, as spending will likely just shift to substitute products.

From a market share perspective, a more balanced market structure between the three new consoles now seems even more probable. Publishers appear to have adjusted their portfolios to minimize exposure from any individual system (although Microsoft recently announced several 360‐exclusive third party console titles).

IDG’s projections show that Sony will still “win” the race, as its brand remains strong
(particularly so in several European markets). However, winning the race may only mean being on the larger side of a 55/45 split, and will be a longer and more difficult battle."

ESTIMATED NORTH AMERICA HARDWARE SALES and INSTALLED BASE

2006
0.9 Million / 0.9 million


2007
5.6 million / 6.5 million


2008
6.3 million / 12.7 million


2009
5.6 million / 18.4 million


2010
5.2 million / 23.5 million

Nintendo Wii

"Nintendo’s confirmation of a global Wii launch in November/December and Sony’s reduced launch quantities have given many observers an increased degree of confidence in Wii’s prospects for 2006 and 2007. Nintendo certainly stands to benefit from reduced PS3 inventories in North America and Europe, and the reintroduction of the launch bundle makes Wii the only self‐contained gaming gift option.

The bundling of Wii Sports is likely to dampen initial software‐to‐hardware tie ratios however, at least for early purchases. This is only an issue for third party publishers, since Nintendo still benefits from the sale. IDG does not expect the bundle to reduce the tie ratio by a full software unit as many consumers can still be expected to purchase an initial library of games – particularly given the system’s position as theleast expensive of the three new platforms."

ESTIMATED NORTH AMERICA HARDWARE SALES and INSTALLED BASE

2006
1.1 Million / 1.1 million


2007
3.4 million / 4.5 million

2008
3.9 million / 8.4 million


2009
3.1 million / 11.4 million


2010
2.2 million / 13.6 million

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4047&Itemid=2

[pari]

Interesting, time alone would give answer. There are lots of assumption built in this prediction and can change. Based on existing data it looks true but what would happen next year nobody knows...

I guess come back a year from now and read this analysis to see how things went. (Nobody has successfully predicted the future yet...). Would we still be discussing about PS3 with the same passion like this a year from now? Sony keep giving us pleasant surprises about PS3?(New features, games,....)

[Crossbar]

I found it interesting that they predict that the interest in the Wii will decrease pretty fast. I wonder what that assumption is based on?

Will the novelty of the Wii controler run out of steem that fast or will the Wii games look just too pale in comparison to the third and forth generations of 360 and PS3 games?

The Wii will always have a price advantage, but obviously that´s not enough in the long run if we are to believe IDG.

[Applefiend]

There does seem to be a Wii backlash starting, a lot of the hatred focussed on PS3 is turning on Wii. The pricepoint,$50 less than a 360 retard pack, and 50 to 100 more than people expected, the games that look like Gamecube games(they don't, but a console that's 2x as powerful as the old one can be difficult to even notice sometimes). Whereas PS3 is seen to be delivering on a lot of the promises. Blu Rays don't suck anymore, the games are looking great and 1080p(for those who care).

There's no two ways about it, they are shipping an upclocked Gamecube with a new controller for 2 and a half times the price of a Gamecube, with a game which isn't AAA as a pack in. No Mario or Zelda. For a system that supposed to be new and a revolution, there's a lot of old familar stuff going on with it.

And they're still Nintendo, they still don't quite get the demographic shift in video games, that's the polite way of putting it. That the average gamer iis 25 now, not 15. If you want to sell 100 million consoles, you need to appeal to male 25 year olds. They are the ones buying the games.

[gozirah]

It doesn't really feel like PS3 and Wii are after the same demographic. Who really is going to stand there and be torn between them? They are going to be such different experiences. The 25 yr olds will buy a Wii for the 15 yr olds in their household, then turn around and get themselves a PS3. (Maybe not all in one paycheck).

[masteratt]

PS3 has everything both console offers and then some and it has the IPs to put both consoles to shame.

Nintendo needs to stop with their Mario and Zelda bullshit. They were good TEN YEARS AGO! Get over it!
Microsoft just needs to get something out there and needs to stop pressuring devs to release "at a critical time". 5 Years of Xboxs and only ONE game interests me (Dead Rising)....That's just crap.

PS3 has the tech, the features and the games. Only a retard will say it will fall behind two less impressive consoles. PS3 will show it's superiority (which i can already see but a 'average Joe' won't) around 2008. The only disadvantage of the PS3 is the shocking price tag which will justify itself more obviously (or maybe even lower itself) around 2008.

The console isn't out yet and PS3 is showing original IPs on all fronts:
RPG- White Knight Story
Racing- MotorStorm
Action/Adventure- New Naughty Dog game/ Lair
FPS- Resistance

And ultimately, it IS the games that sell and once again- Sony has me drooling for them!

Nintendo and Microsoft, take notes.

As I said in the other thread- This is the dumbest prediction ever. Everything aside- it's saying X360's sales won't be effected by the release of a cheaper Wii and a superior PS3? Ha.

[gnznroses]

*cough*bullshit*cough*
ps3 not catching up with 360 til 2010... that's funny...

[gozirah]

Okay, without other console bashing, here is another distinguishing feature:

I do think it's interesting that PS3's online strategy is seemingly so open to developers. This might seem like a negative, as there was so little oversight during PS2. Yet I think Sony's lack of over the shoulder breathing might be attractive. After all, what publisher would not want to have novel online elements and create other streams of revenue? Also, it's less work for Sony if they provide a general framework.

[masteratt]

It's sad that when I bring negative views about other consoles it's consider bashing.
That's how you argue a point. We are all mature enough to know they are my opinion as by the given hint that *I* am saying it ;)
I am not bashing them, I am just giving my opinion on them which just happens to be negative.

Sorry if you weren't refering to my post but still- My point remains.

[Applefiend]

And ultimately, it IS the games that sell and once again- Sony has me drooling for them!

Exactly

Here we are, 360s second christmas, the 2nd generation games. It's time for Microsoft to shine. Where are they? I'm buying one 360 game this Christmas, Gears of War. The 360 christmas lineup is just rubbish, I'd expect to be buying about 5 AAA titles. But for Sony I got....

Valkyrie Profile 2, Okami, FF12, Guitar Hero 2, Bully, KZ Liberation, Vice City Stories.

If we were getting PS3s the list would be longer.

[gozirah]

masteratt, don't be sad. For clarity's sake I was referring directly to your post. :) Hey, I know I am up for honest opinions. Go for it.

But come on people, this is the choir here. It's a given that console launches come with recycled IPs, and that it takes a couple of years for the really good stuff to come out. Why you gotta hate! Of course it seems like PS3 has some unusual momentum at launch, paving the way for even better stuff in the future ... okay, I guess we can hate.:thumbl:

[PS3LikeNoOther]

Well I have to disagree with thouse predictions. If Sony is behind the PS3 like they should be it will easly sell 250 million if they can get enoughf out. I know that sounds crazy especially if you think of the PS3 as a game system, however with the right marketing that can be changed. If Sony markets the PS3 as a true all in one system anhd more than just to the game community it 90 to 110Millioncan be the most sucssesful product ever created.

Here is how I believe the PS3 could become legendary.

1. Start the system off as a game console. Show the kiosks at every store possible, (Fred Myers, Wal-Mart, K-Mart, Best Buy, Sears, ....).

2. Make these kiosks open to all aspects of the system the store, online gameing, Blu-Ray, Internet, let people really explore the system.

3. Give the system 6 months to show off as a game unit then go to the next step. Along with Yellow Dog Show the world linux. Place a demo PS3 in the computer section running linux with photoshop, and a word processor, nvidias new development tools, and other programs installed.

If Sony went all out like that with the PS3 only a fool or some one that just can not afford it would not buy the thing. People will realize the PS3 is 3000 dollars worth the hardware for only 500 bucks, and once they realize they can us it as a computer they will buy into it.

Anyhow hers is what I think the PS3 sales will look like through 2010:

2006:
1.8 - 2.2 Million (based on the 1.1 in US and 1.1 in Japan)

2007:
18.2 to 22.5 Million (Sony expects 4 mill between jan and mar)

2008:
48.2 to 54 Million (Better yeilds more demand, PSP redesign lat 07 early 08)

2009:
90 to 110 Million ( contenued demand better yeald more widespread use of Linux results in more software support)

2010:
160 to 185 Million (System is redesigned, production peaks, PSP2 launched after selling 125 Million plus units, widspread globale wifi and much more)

I know this whole post is very fanboyish, but their is no reason that it could not happen, heck it could happen with the 360 if that is what MS wants to do with the system. However I think Sony does want this for themselfs and for the PS3, and with the right focus it can and will happen. I know we are all here for the games, but even if you don't want it to be the PS3 is well B3yond just the Games.

[lips]

totally agree. why would next gen be a fraction of the sales of current gen, across the board. I mean, what are the odds gamers are really going to hold onto their ps2s for another 5 years? If they even last. It would be interesting if pc gaming went through the roof, but the fact is, pc games just don't hold water to console gaming.

add: I mean, if you are really going to try and be super nice to microsoft, like what appears to be going on here, I would say the x360 should be greater in sales than xbox was, eventually, atleast.

[TheGreenElf]

It's sad that when I bring negative views about other consoles it's consider bashing.
That's how you argue a point. We are all mature enough to know they are my opinion as by the given hint that *I* am saying it ;)
I am not bashing them, I am just giving my opinion on them which just happens to be negative.

Sorry if you weren't refering to my post but still- My point remains.

Not that it actually matters, but that looked like straight console bashing from a PS Fanboy. But either way, as you said, it's all your opinion, as 99% of gamers wouldn't agree with wanting to do away with Zelda or Mario. It's like saying "No more Metal Gear! No more GTA!" I love Metal Gear, and don't care how many remakes they release of that...I'll likely still want more (except wasn't fond of Acid for PSP). As for GTA, I never cared for it, but it's still not one to get rid of.

On the other hand, those numbers look quite off to me, especially late in the consoles lives.

[LiquidEagle]

On the other hand, those numbers look quite off to me, especially late in the consoles lives.

Yeah, I didn't even bother taking those late numbers seriously -- honestly, how much stuff can happen in between now and even 2008 to seriously change the sales rate of a console? It's not even worth predicting :laugh:

I'm curious about something though -- Jack Tretton has said that the XBox 360 is selling worse than the XBox 1 did in its first year, yet this article says it's on a path to pass up the original Xbox. Are they really expecting a big boost in sales or did I miss something?

[OmniCloud]

I don't think there's any need to be nice on 360. It's not a failure, it has a killer game coming this year, and some nice exclusives planned like Halo, Bioshock, Spliner Cell 5, and I believe Lost Planet. It's selling well in the U.S, OK in Europe last time I check, and not so good in Japan. 360 is a nice second to the main dish-PS3, just how the PSP is to DS-(though with PS3-PSP's potential opens up a bit.)

$500 is too much for you? Get a 360. You can't find a PS3 anywhere-get a 360. I think M$ has fulfilled it's role so to speak. Hardware wise-was it ever really positioned to be the market leader in videogames? For the simple reason of using DVD standard that can't be true. To top it off-360's is basically a closed multicore PC-that will be outdated much sooner than PS3's Cell. Developers almost have to cut out an entire market when developing for the system because it's Japanese sells are horrendous-and will only get worse with the release of Wii and PS3. Europe is "Playstation nation" and I think DS and PS2 are still outselling the only Next-gen console on the market over there (someone correct me if I'm wrong). PSP might even grab up some sales with a couple big titles coming out this year.

You can see it this early in the PS3's launch games-and the potential in titles like Lair and MotorStorm. Not only does PS3 have it's brand to market-but also the most powerful hardware to boot. A robust online that has the potential to grow even further than Live because of it's free service and open environment. And like Wii-it has an exclusive library to distribute online, a controller to seperate it's game from the competition, and the ability to offer the highest resolution possible. There's a good chance you will see MMORPG spring to PS3 because of it's open nature. Publishers can charge whatever they want, set up whatever leaderboards, and communication features they desire, while PS2 accomplished this, PS3 unifies it. As much as we scoffed at GTHD-it has the potential to be a huge success. Just take a look at the features and it's nothing short of impressive. With Xbox Live-you assume most people are willing to pay a measly $50 a year to game online. With PS3 you don't have to! You have a broadband connection? Then you have a personal computer that is an awesome gaming machine in your living room! Like Nameless said in another thread-word of mouth is sometimes the best marketing tool. People will tell others how great a system is. I will show all my friends my entire photo album-on a 1080p display for them to gawk at. I'll send messages to people on Myspace-letting them know I'm in front of my TV right now using my PS3. I'll tell people about Linux and how much better it is than Windows for media functionality. This is what seperates products from phenomenons. Something that you feel cool about purchasing. There's tons of MP3 out there, that are a lot cheaper than anything that apple produces. But when I go into a store-I want an IPOD! This is the type of market Sony has essentially already created with PS2 and can establish and spread it with PS3.

Just look back to E3 fellas-I remember I was the one complaining-I don't want an all-in-one box. I have a PC and I have a gaming system. I don't need the lines between the two blurred. Now look at the amazing possiblites that PS3 is offering when it's not even doing anything new-just streamlining everything a PC does-while putting it on a bigger screen. LOL only a few companies can do that. We'll see how the other companies fair when PS3 really starts picking up steam-but this is a great time to be a Sony fan and a lover of video games in general. +rep PS3LikenoOther and Masterratt-nice post...

Just to bash the Wii a little-if the Gamecube was percieved as the "kiddy" system-I don't see how that image can be tarnished with the Wii. Then again-I think it's Nintendo's goal to be the "family" console one that anyone can play. Every system has there own hills to climb-I just admire Ninty's and Sony's approach as well as the image there PR guys give them a lot more than M$...

[lips]

really, to me judging a system by the potential of one big hit that is still vaporware is a little insane. Its like saying an author can be literary giant with one or two good publishings. Its plain to say this is not true. Saying Sony got by on ps2 with one hit is like saying Stephen King did okay writing 'The Shining' and became this monster hit that could not be repeated.

[wotter]

I think PS3 will catch on the Xb360 much quicker than the article predicts. And 24 million Xb360's in NA alone, when the original Xbox sold 'only' 24 million worldwide? Good luck with that.

[Crossbar]

1. Start the system off as a game console. Show the kiosks at every store possible, (Fred Myers, Wal-Mart, K-Mart, Best Buy, Sears, ....).

2. Make these kiosks open to all aspects of the system the store, online gameing, Blu-Ray, Internet, let people really explore the system.

3. Give the system 6 months to show off as a game unit then go to the next step. Along with Yellow Dog Show the world linux. Place a demo PS3 in the computer section running linux with photoshop, and a word processor, nvidias new development tools, and other programs installed.

Interesting approach! I think the Linux push in the computer section could expand the PS3 appeal among non-gamers and movie enthusiasts.

However, i think your 2007 sails numbers are much to optimistic. :)

[Delirious]

Just happened to click on this out of curiosity, but I should have known it was gonna be more anti nintendo banter being in the ps3 forum. Well that estimate chart is pretty and all, but Im not buying it for a second. Then some of the posts I read afterwards made me lose a little faith in the human race. Im not gonna bother going into detail, Im sure you guys know what I mean. But yeah, all that aside, PS3 in my own humble opinion, is not the superior console coming out. Superior, in this case, is way to subjective to be given to any one console. PS3 obviously has its areas of excellence, as do all of the consoles. The price of the PS3 is way more of a problem than many sony peeps want to admit. Case in point, a buddy of mine and I were conversing the other day about random shit and he mentioned the ps3 and asked me if I was getting one. I said no and asked him the same. He said "Well, I went into ebgames and asked them how much they were gonna cost, and the guy said 500-600 dollars and I was like shiiiiiit. Aint no console worth that much." To which I replied with a little laugh and told him he'd be suprised. If the ps3 cost a couple of c-notes less I might buy one myself. Not any time soon, but the possibility would be there. It kinda makes me sad too because Ive never owned a sony console, and I thought maybe the ps3 was gonna be my sony cherry popper. I Was however pleased when I ventured into the world of xbox last year and played some awesome games like fable and burnout3. Sorry for the lengthy post, but I have one final question, what are some games for ps3 that you think could sway me towards getting a one. I am kinda interested in the kingdom hearts franchise, and I heard the katamari games are fun, but the rest I know little about. Thanks, and goodnight, or actually goodmorning now lol.

[woundingchaney]

It wouldnt surprise me if MS out sells Sony in NA or is extremely close in sales at the end of this gen. (this would be for NA or course).

[yoshaw]

If bluray hits big, these anals* will be rushing to edit these sales numbers and again, just like with this 100page report, charge $3000-5000 to stupid 'number sorting' executives(let's say, at Ubisoft or THQ) that can't make shit on their own about the future.

Cheesy analogy beware> I believe in these reports as much as I believe in Bush saving the world from conflicts. :roll eyes: <this forum needs a roll eyes icon asap!

*analysts

[Tarkus]

I am sorry but this has got to be one of THE worst predictions I have seen yet. To think that it will take the PS3 until 2010 to catch up to the 360 is ludicrous. The only way that would happen is if Sony could not manufacture enough units.

Face it, the 360 is not exactly lighting the world on fire here. It sales rate it very similar to the original Xbox and it is regularly beaten each month by the PS2. I realize that due to shortages the PS3 probably will not catch the 360 until 2008 - but that is it.

[lips]

It wouldnt surprise me if MS out sells Sony in NA or is extremely close in sales at the end of this gen. (this would be for NA or course).

Come to think of it, if ps2 sales were bolstered by gta exclusive by over 60%, perhaps sony does deserve to go down to microsoft. To me though, I believe the article is not telling us the true logic here, and that is xbox, in his mind, was superior in hardware to ps2, and therefore the trend of xbox sales overtaking playstation will continue, possibly into the next decade. What he does not realize is, the ps2 emotion engine was technically more capable of pushing polygons than the celeron in the xbox, and thats why the ps2 dwarfed xbox in sales. In my mind, I can see how the ps 3 capabilities furthers the technical advantage spread by way of sony, there is no reason why PS3 should not enjoy an even greater penitration into the market, exceeding ps2 sales. not to mention advantages in capacity of blu-ray movie support, flash memory support for photos, etc, universal presistant memory for online tools, and other non-gaming advantages of ps3 that has a list that goes on and on.

[OmniCloud]

Just happened to click on this out of curiosity, but I should have known it was gonna be more anti nintendo banter being in the ps3 forum. Well that estimate chart is pretty and all, but Im not buying it for a second. Then some of the posts I read afterwards made me lose a little faith in the human race. Im not gonna bother going into detail, Im sure you guys know what I mean. But yeah, all that aside, PS3 in my own humble opinion, is not the superior console coming out. Superior, in this case, is way to subjective to be given to any one console. PS3 obviously has its areas of excellence, as do all of the consoles. The price of the PS3 is way more of a problem than many sony peeps want to admit. Case in point, a buddy of mine and I were conversing the other day about random shit and he mentioned the ps3 and asked me if I was getting one. I said no and asked him the same. He said "Well, I went into ebgames and asked them how much they were gonna cost, and the guy said 500-600 dollars and I was like shiiiiiit. Aint no console worth that much." To which I replied with a little laugh and told him he'd be suprised. If the ps3 cost a couple of c-notes less I might buy one myself. Not any time soon, but the possibility would be there. It kinda makes me sad too because Ive never owned a sony console, and I thought maybe the ps3 was gonna be my sony cherry popper. I Was however pleased when I ventured into the world of xbox last year and played some awesome games like fable and burnout3. Sorry for the lengthy post, but I have one final question, what are some games for ps3 that you think could sway me towards getting a one. I am kinda interested in the kingdom hearts franchise, and I heard the katamari games are fun, but the rest I know little about. Thanks, and goodnight, or actually goodmorning now lol.If price is the only reason it's not superior-then that issue is left up to the consumer to make isn't it? The hardware is superior to any other console-so I think his has more potential than your giving it credit for. But putting that aside-it depends on what type of gamer you are. DIfferent games sway different people. There's a lot of genres out there and PS3 will heat up early 07 with some big games. If your friend likes racers-I suggest taking a look at the MotorStorm footage. Just browse the forums really-there's a lot of exclusive content coming you should check out-the most impressive stuff doesn't come this year I'm afraid.

[kaphwan]

S-pac69- See how everyone else breaks up their posts into paragraphs? You might want to try that. We really don't mind if you have a huge 1000-1500 word post, as xbdestroya and some others do that too, so long as you break it into coherent paragraphs. Makes it easier on the eyes, and around here it would probably go a long way towards the content being received positively.

You said you like the KH franchies, so I know that you're indeed awesome. I'd recommend either of the two FF13's coming out if you're into that, or just whatever Level-5 are coming up with (they are notorious for making brilliant RPGs).

Regarding the price, I'll bet you in two years time, we'll see significant price drops. Just buy one later. You get the added bonus of certainty that any hardware issues have been fixed and a great choice of AAA games. It's what everyone bar the hardcore early adopter does.

And for superiority. I would argue that the PS3 is technically the superior console, however whether that technical superiority will translate to market dominance is very, very open to question. Ergo, every analyst feels the need to write articles on exactly why they're right.

Edit: By the way, whoever said something to the effect of "Ninty only makes kiddie consoles" should know that E stands for Everyone, not Kids. That's what K is for.

[OmniCloud]

Edit: By the way, whoever said something to the effect of "Ninty only makes kiddie consoles" should know that E stands for Everyone, not Kids. That's what K is for.It's not the ESRB on the games for Nintendo-it's the image they are portrayed in. GC displayed that image-and I think Wii isn't far away from that either. The Wii's strategy is extremlely different-so it will work to Nintendo's advantage to that image added to "easy" "pickup and play" which are a lot less intimidating than High Resolution graphics and Blu-ray.

[OmniCloud]

It wouldnt surprise me if MS out sells Sony in NA or is extremely close in sales at the end of this gen. (this would be for NA or course).Read my post on the previous page to understand why I disagree. The only way for M$ to compete with PS3 every year is if M$ snags A TON of exclusives. IT seems like the 360 is right in the middle when it comes to hardware-which for next generation of games and graphics-isn't a good thing. We'll see tho. If Gears sells as many copies as Halo-then they will have another Killer game to market to the U.S audience.

[Viper]

lol...just plain laughable.

I'd love to see the reaoning behind the numbers so I can laugh some more.


Applefiend, Zelda is a launch title for Wii. I can't image where you could have read otherwise.

[pari]

Read my post on the previous page to understand why I disagree. The only way for M$ to compete with PS3 every year is if M$ snags A TON of exclusives. IT seems like the 360 is right in the middle when it comes to hardware-which for next generation of games and graphics-isn't a good thing. We'll see tho. If Gears sells as many copies as Halo-then they will have another Killer game to market to the U.S audience.

With the money MS has, MS might do it and which in turn would end up has Phyrric victory for MS...

[TheGreenElf]

I honestly believe the PS3 will come close to 360's numbers by January 08 (not 07), but I doubt they will overtake them by leaps and bounds (if at all) until the PS3 has had 2-3 significant price drops. I'm talking no more than $350 for the Premium PS3. I think Sony will win this generation, but I feel it'll be much closer than previous gens.
IT seems like the 360 is right in the middle when it comes to hardware-which for next generation of games and graphics-isn't a good thing. We'll see tho.
OmniCloud, also, being comfortably in the middle with games (as you said about Xbox360) is not necessarily a bad thing, but also just your opinion...and really, at this point I agree...but how much affect could the small edge that PS3 has in graphics have in swaying people to choose it over the 360? At this point I'd say it's minimal for the time being. Those two consoles are quite close in graphics based on what we've seen so far, but I guess we'll have to wait. :) (Wasn't a bash on you, just what I disagree with)

[vdo]

It doesn't really feel like PS3 and Wii are after the same demographic. Who really is going to stand there and be torn between them? They are going to be such different experiences. The 25 yr olds will buy a Wii for the 15 yr olds in their household, then turn around and get themselves a PS3. (Maybe not all in one paycheck).

Actually, a lot of 15 yr olds will want PS3. According to Sony, they have always marketed to the age of 19. They say that is the age everyone wants to be (who knows it could be a range of 19 thru early 20s, but this is Sony's theory anyway).

If you are older you want to be that age and if you are younger, you look up to that age and want to be that age. So 15 year olds that hear 19-25 year olds saying they want PS3 and the Wii is for younger people, will not think "Oh I am younger, I must want a Wii". They will think "yeah, you're right Wii is for younger people, I'm getting a PS3" because to them younger is younger than even what they are.

It worked with PS1 and PS2. Sony says that was the age they marketed to and it didn't seem to alienate those younger or older.

[TheGreenElf]

But so many people I know young and old are excited about at least trying the Wii...that's saying something.

[Viper]

GC was marketed to much for 13 and under. Wii is being targeted to everyone, literally. Anyone that understands marketing will see the vast difference in the two consoles target market and potential.

[OmniCloud]

@TheGreenElf-No offense taking mate. Everything posted here is just speculation based on opinions anyway so there's no wrong answers. Gotta give credit to Nintendo's strategy-there marketing potential-is even greater than PS3's because they can market to EVERYONE as Viper pointed out. While I definitely see Wii being the hottest product for a while-I just don't see how Gamecube 1.5 with a a new controller scheme will compete with PS3 is 2008 and 2009. While the PS3 will evolve and we probably won't see it's features maxed till 5 or so years from now-the graphics of Wii even limits the controller to some extent. At least make it Hi-def NINTY! I think Wii is going to be a hot product-but seriously-when the PS2 gets to the point of-"wow, that's so last-gen" So will the Wii. A double edged sword if you ask me. They sacraficed too much technology to make it cheap. Good for 2 or 3 years-not so good in the long run. And I know some1 will bring DS into the mix-but plz don't, it's ENTIRELY different in the console space. Man...I just got all giddy inside. It's funny-no matter what console ends up on top-gamers still WIN! MUHAHAHAHAHHAH... I give my vote to PS3-and I even doubt it'll be by a short margin like many people are saying. The tech is there, the controller is there, the online is there, the developer support is there, the money is there. If PS3 lives up to it's FULL potential-I just don't see the minor gap in market share, and I also think that would be more of a disservice to consumers to not take advantage of the hardware to it's fullest.

[masteratt]

If we just look at the numbers, Xbox 360 is selling worse than Xbox 1 WITHOUT any competition (while Xbox had to dive in at a bad time and face two strong competitors).

Put Wii and PS3 into the picture and there is no way X360 will keep the lead. The only reason they will keep the lead is if Nintendo & Sony can't provide the consoles fast enough.

At the moment the reason they are winning is because...Well they are the only next-gen console out lol and they still don't have the best market share as PS2 (a 6year old console) is kicking X360 out of there.

Just looking at the numbers, Xbox 360 looks more miserable than Xbox 1. Of course that's not MSs concern as they are only in this to "slow down Sony".

1) PS3
2) Wii
3) X360
By Jan 2008, I strongly believe that's how the console war will be. It will take some time for Wii and PS3 to start rolling but once they do, no-one will look back and say "What was that other console...Xbox something...."

PS3 ('super computer') and Wii (Wiimote and the cheapest console) are both doing something interesting while Xbox 360 (in my opinion) is just an Xbox with a better graphics card and once this becomes clear to the consumer, Wii and PS3 will be the king in everyone's eyes.

It will be funny if PS3 and Wii sell exactly the same numbers lol. So it's like every person walks into a shop to buy a PS3 and a Wii.

[woundingchaney]

We keep speaking of games and there impact of consoles yet are we really familiar with the Xboxs lineup of titles here. Next year there is a large amount of AAA (supposedly) titles coming to the platform all of which are geared toward the Western market (Europe and NA). Im not saying that Sonys titles are inferior or anything of the like but when you look at the line-up of titles by and large and preference would be based on opinion alone.

The price point of the PS3 is going to disuade many people and the fact that there really isnt a noticeable difference between the titles on the consoles (unless of course comparisons are made between titles that are made a year later or so). We constantly make statements that 360 games seem to be right down the middle graphic wise, mainly because these statements go unchallenged there is no title that stands out graphically on either console that looks beyond titles found on the other one. I wouldnt doubt that the PS3 may catch the 360 in NA sales by the end of the gen but when you look at marketing sweet spots (price) and console exclusives and the performance of the 2 machines I dont see how Sony is going to catch MS in a reasonable amount of time (other than their strong name recognition).

Also its important to note that we are having this discussion in a console specific forum, as to say in this example how many people arent going to agree with each other.

[gozirah]

The numbers = lame. History alone does lend itself to predictive power.

I don't think there is any way xbox 360 will not do well, since they can basically be subsidized by the rest of Microsoft even up to the iteration of xbox.

Nintendo isn't stupid. They know how to look after the bottom line without a lot of overhead. They will be fine.

As for PS3, you have to admit this is a big challenge for the company in the short run. It is crucial that they lower manufacturing costs soon and past the savings to us for mass adoption. There are a lot of casual gamers out there who are thinking they should only plunk 2C's for a machine. The only other option is to go all the way with the message of all-in-one entertainment computer gaming machine. It's a god damn steal for that.

Do any of you all feel alienated because you were counting on just a gaming machine? I don't, but that's me. I like well put together packages.

On another note, I don't really see why the initial high cost is any factor to its ultimate success. It's like some people can't see beyond 6 months time (of a 5-10 year product cycle). As far as I can see it, the cost is higher because the PS3 is simply arriving early, more ahead of the manufacturing refinement curve than its predecessor. Some of us will enjoy it early as a bonus. And certainly developers will have more time with the machine.

[woundingchaney]

We keep speaking of games and there impact of consoles yet are we really familiar with the Xboxs lineup of titles here. Next year there is a large amount of AAA (supposedly) titles coming to the platform all of which are geared toward the Western market (Europe and NA). Im not saying that Sonys titles are inferior or anything of the like but when you look at the line-up of titles by and large and preference would be based on opinion alone.

The price point of the PS3 is going to disuade many people and the fact that there really isnt a noticeable difference between the titles on the consoles (unless of course comparisons are made between titles that are made a year later or so). We constantly make statements that 360 games seem to be right down the middle graphic wise, mainly because these statements go unchallenged there is no title that stands out graphically on either console that looks beyond titles found on the other one. I wouldnt doubt that the PS3 may catch the 360 in NA sales by the end of the gen but when you look at marketing sweet spots (price) and console exclusives and the performance of the 2 machines I dont see how Sony is going to catch MS in a reasonable amount of time (other than their strong name recognition).

Also its important to note that we are having this discussion in a console specific forum, as to say in this example how many people arent going to agree with each other. This is more of a statement for me but I feel as if when we go into these debates I am constantly the voice of opposition. LOL[/QUOTE]

[frosty]

(unless of course comparisons are made between titles that are made a year later or so).

Thing is Wounding, this has proven to not be the case. Even games that are being developed together are showing improvements over the 360 version. (COD3, Virtua Tennis, Sonic, etc.)

[gozirah]

Thing is Wounding, this has proven to not be the case. Even games that are being developed together are showing improvements over the 360 version. (COD3, Virtua Tennis, Sonic, etc.)

How do you know the improvements are not just do to more development time? Maybe a better test would be if a year later, games first came out for PS3 and then were ported to 360. Also, if cross platform games came out at the same time and one version was noticeably better, I think that would incur the wrath of console fans, encouraging lowest commmon denominator approaches in development.

I think it would be a better measure to look at the library of games as whole.

[Viper]

While I definitely see Wii being the hottest product for a while-I just don't see how Gamecube 1.5 with a a new controller scheme will compete with PS3 is 2008 and 2009.

This is where you need to relook at he situation as a whole. You firmly stated the Wii is directly competing with PS3. This is what you need to remove completely from your thoughts.

When you target different audiences, you are no longer competing.

For example, are cars and trucks competing for sales? No, one appeals to one market, the other appeals to a different market.

Thsi is something even the analysts seem to be having difficulty understanding. I've said this before and I'll repeat it here. The Wii and PS3 can both sell 100 million consoles and not harm each others markets.

It is this same principle that Sony is betting on in their continued support of PS2 well after the release of PS3. The PS2 will have a market shift into the second hand and lesser expensive gaming market that will nto affect the market the PS3 is in.

[gozirah]

When you target different audiences, you are no longer competing.

This is true. But then I also just thought about another measure: rate of uptake. Burger King and french cuisine do not directly compete, but you can't eat both in one night. You might just have to wait for the next buying cycle. In this sense even iPod competes with consoles in the holiday season short term. end amateur economics theorizing.

[woundingchaney]

Thing is Wounding, this has proven to not be the case. Even games that are being developed together are showing improvements over the 360 version. (COD3, Virtua Tennis, Sonic, etc.)


COD3 runs at half the framerate on the PS3 and there references to better textures on the 360 (that is a user interpretation), it is also said to be noticeably better looking in general on the 360. Virtua Tennis looks no different only that the PS3 is currently the only system that can display 1080p (although the title lacks online on the PS3 - at least last time I checked). I have not heard anything of Sonic for some time now but when it does release Im willing to bet they will be identicle. There is also talk of
the R6 version supporting better texture and being superior on the 360 version.

Madden differs by the addition of gang tackling which devs have stated numerous times was left off the 360 version due to time restraints. There is one comment where it is said to look sharper on the PS3 version, for this may be nothing but one user interpretation as it was never stated by devs.

The difference that so many are speaking of is in titles that are seperated by months of development time. So I would agree that better tests should be concluded and made in the future. The main thing that I am challenging is that by and large the PS3 titles supposedly "look" better than 360 titles.

[frosty]

There is one comment where it is said to look sharper on the PS3 version, for this may be nothing but one user interpretation as it was never stated by devs.


I've seen it with my own eyes, so I can confirm that.

R6? What is that?

And online isn't the debate here, so that point is moot for VT.
The resolution is twice that of the 360 version. However, without sharper textures the increase in resolution does very little good. Shapes will appear more well defined, but the textures will have more noticable blur on them. And all the reports on the game say the textures are much sharper.

As for COD3, I'd side with the PS3 version judging by the screenshots. I haven't heard anything on the framerates between the two, so I'll wait until I can see both in action to judge on that.

[VG Aficionado]

Virtua Tennis looks no different only that the PS3 is currently the only system that can display 1080p (although the title lacks online on the PS3 - at least last time I checked).http://forums.e-mpire.com/showpost.php?p=1275079&postcount=71

UNIQUE SELLING POINTS:

# PLAYSTATION 3 exclusives: Unique new tilt functionality allows players to spin, lob and slice the ball with a flick of the pad. Play tennis in spectacular 1080p resolution - the highest video standard available.
# A true High Definition experience: The most accurate and rich tennis experience to date!

PRODUCT INFO:

Platform: PLAYSTATION 3
Genre: Sports
Players: PS3 online/offline: 1-4
Retail: $49.95

for this may be nothing but one user interpretation as it was never stated by devs.I'm sure any sane "dev" would state which version is superior when both will be released at the same time so that the potential owners of the inferior version will be pissed off and spend their money on something else.

[woundingchaney]

I've seen it with my own eyes, so I can confirm that.

R6? What is that?

And online isn't the debate here, so that point is moot for VT.
The resolution is twice that of the 360 version. However, without sharper textures the increase in resolution does very little good. Shapes will appear more well defined, but the textures will have more noticable blur on them. And all the reports on the game say the textures are much sharper.

As for COD3, I'd side with the PS3 version judging by the screenshots. I haven't heard anything on the framerates between the two, so I'll wait until I can see both in action to judge on that.

The thing is frosty that I can go anywhere on the net and talk to others I know that say the opposite. I mean I dont doubt that you think it looks sharper on the PS3 but others I speak to I have no doubt that they believe what they feel as well. Although you may be correct Madden for the PS3 does however prosper from approx. 3 months more dev time.

The texture quality is dependent on resolution in texture resolution but it is entirely possible to have more structured and elaborate textures and more texture in general. Virtua Tennis of course would look better with 1080p although because the 360 doesnt support this res. (yet) doesnt really make it infereior considering that 1080p tvs are extremely rare to the consumer. I would imagine that if the update was available the 360 would run 1080p as well. Im not trying to belittle the PS3 running VT at 1080p but I cant see it being anymore than an additional feature much like the support of online for the 360 version.

Looking at COD3 screenshots of both I would give the nod to the 360 version.

R6= Rainbow Six


Hang on - VG thanks for the link I was under the impression that VT was still going to lack online for the PS3 version. Disregard previous comments.

[Domination]

Here are some predictions of console sales in North America. Seems reasonable to me.

6116


http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4047&Itemid=2

I'm not sure how the outcome will turn out, but I will say that I've heard such when the original PlayStation first entered the market, and after that, the Xbox, which came later on. So until it actually happens, let's just say I'm not convinced yet at all.

[Domination]

I honestly believe the PS3 will come close to 360's numbers by January 08 (not 07), but I doubt they will overtake them by leaps and bounds (if at all) until the PS3 has had 2-3 significant price drops. I'm talking no more than $350 for the Premium PS3. I think Sony will win this generation, but I feel it'll be much closer than previous gens.

OmniCloud, also, being comfortably in the middle with games (as you said about Xbox360) is not necessarily a bad thing, but also just your opinion...and really, at this point I agree...but how much affect could the small edge that PS3 has in graphics have in swaying people to choose it over the 360? At this point I'd say it's minimal for the time being. Those two consoles are quite close in graphics based on what we've seen so far, but I guess we'll have to wait. :) (Wasn't a bash on you, just what I disagree with)

That's the problem. You have one console that has been out on the market close to a yearalready (it has moved into second gen titles) and another that hasn't begun to launch. To see the two performing so closely before launch should be more of a wake up call for some people. But sadly, some have yet to understand what's beyond this.

[IEatFriedPikmin]

PS3 has everything both console offers and then some and it has the IPs to put both consoles to shame.

Nintendo needs to stop with their Mario and Zelda . They were good TEN YEARS AGO! Get over it!
Microsoft just needs to get something out there and needs to stop pressuring devs to release "at a critical time". 5 Years of Xboxs and only ONE game interests me (Dead Rising)....That's just crap.

PS3 has the tech, the features and the games. Only a retard will say it will fall behind two less impressive consoles. PS3 will show it's superiority (which i can already see but a 'average Joe' won't) around 2008. The only disadvantage of the PS3 is the shocking price tag which will justify itself more obviously (or maybe even lower itself) around 2008.

The console isn't out yet and PS3 is showing original IPs on all fronts:
RPG- White Knight Story
Racing- MotorStorm
Action/Adventure- New Dog game/ Lair
FPS- Resistance

And ultimately, it IS the games that sell and once again- Sony has me drooling for them!

Nintendo and Microsoft, take notes.

As I said in the other thread- This is the dumbest prediction ever. Everything aside- it's saying X360's sales won't be effected by the release of a cheaper Wii and a superior PS3? Ha.
lame
Sony definitly does NOT have what the other consoles have.

the reason nintendo continues to make those franchises is because they still make lots of MONEY off of them and still make them good. That is why people love Nintendo: because of those giants that no other publisher will have.

If anything, the 360 has the features, mainly due to xbox live. All the ps3 has is the tech.

i laughed most when you said nintendo should take notes. take notes from sony?! what?! why would nintendo take notes of unoriginality when they are all about INNOVATION?!
good thing your opinion doesnt matter.

[Delirious]

It will be funny if PS3 and Wii sell exactly the same numbers lol. So it's like every person walks into a shop to buy a PS3 and a Wii.

See I kinda agree with this cause I bet tons of ps3 guys are gonna buy a wii as their secondary console, but then you have all the millions who will just buy the wii. This leads me to think that nintendo has the best overall future in this generation. PS3 will most likely be a close second though.

And as far as me posting in paragraphs, I usually go back and organize my posts before I post them but it was really early in the morning and I was just letting my stuff flow.

[Domination]

We keep speaking of games and there impact of consoles yet are we really familiar with the Xboxs lineup of titles here. Next year there is a large amount of AAA (supposedly) titles coming to the platform all of which are geared toward the Western market (Europe and NA). Im not saying that Sonys titles are inferior or anything of the like but when you look at the line-up of titles by and large and preference would be based on opinion alone.

The price point of the PS3 is going to disuade many people and the fact that there really isnt a noticeable difference between the titles on the consoles (unless of course comparisons are made between titles that are made a year later or so). We constantly make statements that 360 games seem to be right down the middle graphic wise, mainly because these statements go unchallenged there is no title that stands out graphically on either console that looks beyond titles found on the other one. I wouldnt doubt that the PS3 may catch the 360 in NA sales by the end of the gen but when you look at marketing sweet spots (price) and console exclusives and the performance of the 2 machines I dont see how Sony is going to catch MS in a reasonable amount of time (other than their strong name recognition).

Also its important to note that we are having this discussion in a console specific forum, as to say in this example how many people arent going to agree with each other. This is more of a statement for me but I feel as if when we go into these debates I am constantly the voice of opposition. LOL

Like I said, I'm not sure how the outcome is going to turn out, but I am not convinced by this analyst at all, and it's mainly because I've heard these things before. What I see now is no competition. So the way I see it, anything can be prophesised at this time, but they are far from facts.

Let me also remind you, as far as the bolded part, that this is not a sprint. What you see now can be completely different a year or two out if not sooner.

[OmniCloud]

lame
Sony definitly does NOT have what the other consoles have.

the reason nintendo continues to make those franchises is because they still make lots of MONEY off of them and still make them good. That is why people love Nintendo: because of those giants that no other publisher will have.

If anything, the 360 has the features, mainly due to xbox live. All the ps3 has is the tech.

i laughed most when you said nintendo should take notes. take notes from sony?! what?! why would nintendo take notes of unoriginality when they are all about INNOVATION?!
good thing your opinion doesnt matter.
I agree that Nintendo definitely follows there own path-Many innovations truly begins with Nintendo-it doesn't really need to be debated. I disagree with PS3 simply having tech tho. For me, I think Sony's Gamers day disproved that totally. It has a cohesive online service that's free-whether it will be as cohesive as Live is up in the air-but we know it's a least some type of unity there, a Playstation store, downloadable games, and PS1 classics! The ability to put Linux on your PS3, multiple screens for the built in web browser, M+K support-seriously, the list keeps going with PS3 features-not to mention the controller which was thought to be a gimmick (much like early impressions of Wii) and now games like Tony Hawk and Call of Duty (3rd party) are already giving PS3 an edge in controls. The price-we'll that's another story-but PS3 certainly doesnt lack in features.

This is where you need to relook at he situation as a whole. You firmly stated the Wii is directly competing with PS3. This is what you need to remove completely from your thoughts.

When you target different audiences, you are no longer competing.

For example, are cars and trucks competing for sales? No, one appeals to one market, the other appeals to a different market.

Thsi is something even the analysts seem to be having difficulty understanding. I've said this before and I'll repeat it here. The Wii and PS3 can both sell 100 million consoles and not harm each others markets.

It is this same principle that Sony is betting on in their continued support of PS2 well after the release of PS3. The PS2 will have a market shift into the second hand and lesser expensive gaming market that will nto affect the market the PS3 is in.[/Great post...I looked at the Wii comercials again and then compared it to PS3's and I see 100% where your going. It's like the commercials are telling different people to buy there product. I'm a Sony fan-but I even find myself ready to get Wii on day one just to play Zelda with the new controller and because It'll be a lot easier on my wallet. There's no doubt that PS3 will be my gaming machine-but it seems Wii will sell no matter what 360 and PS3 does in the market-Smart move Nintendo. I can't wait to play Wii sports with my Mom and sister! It won't compete-because it doesn' have to-lol...


That's the problem. You have one console that has been out on the market close to a yearalready (it has moved into second gen titles) and another that hasn't begun to launch. To see the two performing so closely before launch should be more of a wake up call for some people. But sadly, some have yet to understand what's beyond thisEXACTLY!! Why isn't this more apparent to everyone? It just happend last generation with DC and PS2! DC had one of the prettiest games on any system around the PS2 launch-(Soul Calibur) but it was just something different about even the early PS2 games. It was made clearer with Jak and ratchet games. It was made even clearer when MGS2 debuted looking better than the amazing trailers we were seeing. I don't understand why it won't be the case with 360:huh: It won't get "dreamcasted" so to speak, but better hardware is better hardware. And it's not just that PS3 has a better GPU so you'll see some sharper textures or whatever, but the Heart of a system-the thing that makes the games come to life-the CPU, is almost a breakthrough in technology-and it's in the PS3!! I don't see the argument of "it only looks better because it's in 1080p" because a game has to be tailored to work in that resolution. Lair and Warhawk and perfect examples of games you will never see on 360. Mario Galaxy, Elebits, and Zelda are examples of games that you will neve see on 360 OR PS3! THe total package for PS3 is the highest resolution, tilt controller, and Cell based games. These are showing such potential early on-and devs that came back from TGS who have experienced the console close up with hands on time has even confirmed this. where the debate goes on hardware is moot to me. Which console will have the best games is up in the air-but the most technically advanced games??! It's simply a given...any upgrade 360 does won't have HDMI in it and won't support Native 1080p and won't support a bigger disc storage which be even more of an advantage with every year. I dunno, maybe I'm just the only one seeing these things in fantasy land or something...lol

[IEatFriedPikmin]

btw, sorry for my outburst. that was just my fanboyism trying to escape.

[gozirah]

How can a thread like this start without eventually spiralling into chaos and fanboy escape? Get the sea monkeys back in the jar! Too late.

Touting the virtues of console x is fun, but is pitting them against each really productive?

Not that I am above ranting.

[venomv]

Sony definitly does NOT have what the other consoles have.

What don't they have then......They have more power and in my opinion a better online system then MS (cause I won't pay for online gaming, period). And a control that had motion sensing added to it instead of replacing it like Nintendo did. I know what Nintendo is doing, but I prefer to have the old control just cause i may not like motion sensing, and it would be hard to use the Wii in some positions I play games in. But anyway, back on topic......

You know what bothers me the most about these numbers, total consoles sold. It seems way to low, the ratio could be right, though I doubt it, but the accual number seem wacked.

[Viper]

This is true. But then I also just thought about another measure: rate of uptake. Burger King and french cuisine do not directly compete, but you can't eat both in one night. You might just have to wait for the next buying cycle. In this sense even iPod competes with consoles in the holiday season short term. end amateur economics theorizing.

Nice point but I eat lunch and dinner every day, don't you?

[Crossbar]

Nice point but I eat lunch and dinner every day, don't you?
I don´t play games every day, because I got more important stuff to deal with, when I do play I am pretty picky with my choice. I guess there are a lot of different categories of gamers to tap into and how cost-sensitive they are may differ as well.

There is this quantity/quality/functionality vs price/product margin thing that come in to play if we start dissecting the market.

[Viper]

I think you missed my point.

The idea is that you can have both and not interfere with each other. Lunch doesn't dampen your dinner time appetite, does it?

[Crossbar]

I think you missed my point.

The idea is that you can have both and not interfere with each other. Lunch doesn't dampen your dinner time appetite, does it?

Yes, I did. I thought you were commenting on the "Burger King and french cuisine" analogy.

[Domination]

I agree that Nintendo definitely follows there own path-Many innovations truly begins with Nintendo-it doesn't really need to be debated. I disagree with PS3 simply having tech tho. For me, I think Sony's Gamers day disproved that totally. It has a cohesive online service that's free-whether it will be as cohesive as Live is up in the air-but we know it's a least some type of unity there, a Playstation store, downloadable games, and PS1 classics! The ability to put Linux on your PS3, multiple screens for the built in web browser, M+K support-seriously, the list keeps going with PS3 features-not to mention the controller which was thought to be a gimmick (much like early impressions of Wii) and now games like Tony Hawk and Call of Duty (3rd party) are already giving PS3 an edge in controls. The price-we'll that's another story-but PS3 certainly doesnt lack in features.

Great post...I looked at the Wii comercials again and then compared it to PS3's and I see 100% where your going. It's like the commercials are telling different people to buy there product. I'm a Sony fan-but I even find myself ready to get Wii on day one just to play Zelda with the new controller and because It'll be a lot easier on my wallet. There's no doubt that PS3 will be my gaming machine-but it seems Wii will sell no matter what 360 and PS3 does in the market-Smart move Nintendo. I can't wait to play Wii sports with my Mom and sister! It won't compete-because it doesn' have to-lol...


EXACTLY!! Why isn't this more apparent to everyone? It just happend last generation with DC and PS2! DC had one of the prettiest games on any system around the PS2 launch-(Soul Calibur) but it was just something different about even the early PS2 games. It was made clearer with Jak and ratchet games. It was made even clearer when MGS2 debuted looking better than the amazing trailers we were seeing. I don't understand why it won't be the case with 360:huh: It won't get "dreamcasted" so to speak, but better hardware is better hardware. And it's not just that PS3 has a better GPU so you'll see some sharper textures or whatever, but the Heart of a system-the thing that makes the games come to life-the CPU, is almost a breakthrough in technology-and it's in the PS3!! I don't see the argument of "it only looks better because it's in 1080p" because a game has to be tailored to work in that resolution. Lair and Warhawk and perfect examples of games you will never see on 360. Mario Galaxy, Elebits, and Zelda are examples of games that you will neve see on 360 OR PS3! THe total package for PS3 is the highest resolution, tilt controller, and Cell based games. These are showing such potential early on-and devs that came back from TGS who have experienced the console close up with hands on time has even confirmed this. where the debate goes on hardware is moot to me. Which console will have the best games is up in the air-but the most technically advanced games??! It's simply a given...any upgrade 360 does won't have HDMI in it and won't support Native 1080p and won't support a bigger disc storage which be even more of an advantage with every year. I dunno, maybe I'm just the only one seeing these things in fantasy land or something...lol

It's not just you. What I, too, am seeing now is exactly what I saw last-gen with the two consoles. But what I can't seem to understand is how is it that only a handful of people are able to see this. Half, if not a more significant number, of the user base seems to think the gap between these two machines will only apply on the specs sheet and not real world performance. I so feel that much is a total mistake. Many are simply taking the Xbox's performance for granted this generation.

[TheGreenElf]

I think if Sony really wants to show it's power, they need to get some of their hot selling exclusives as soon as possible, because right now most casual gamers are under the impression that the 360 and PS3 will have a very similar library (with games like COD 3, Madden, etc...) and most gamers are more excited for Gears of War than Resistance from what I've seen.

Sony needs some of their big titles like MGS or DMC and people need to see this, as so many people I know are under the impression that the game libraries are too similar and the only real difference is a slight graphics jump. If this were true (which of course we all know it isn't), then it'll be hard to sell a $500-$600 system over a $400 one...

[ded5850]

I think a big reason why nobody looks at the minimal distinction between the 2nd gen 360 games and the 1st gen PS3 ones as much of a telling sign of things to come is because we're seen this all before. When the Xbox rolled out, it was touting a lot more power and bettwer looking games at launch (if I remember correctly) and yet still on down the line to even today,
the games don't look too desimilar between the Xbox and it's competitors. And this wasn't the first time it happened either. People can only concretely expect what history has already shown us, and while I personally think/hope the PS3's added power will show it's above and well beyond the competition, most people probably aren't expecting this much.

[Domination]

The Xbox did hold an advantage to the PlayStation 2, probably not as great as some had hoped for, but it had an advantage nevertheless. But I think a number of reasons why the difference wasn't as great is Sony, being a very experienced electronics company, going in-house on the tech that went into the console when compared to off-the-shelf parts in the Xbox. Therefore, there was a lot of flexibility in their console.

With the PS3, Sony has gone in-house yet again. But I think that's hardly where it ends. The tech in the PS3 was finalised late after the 360. So it's not the same. We already know that the console is more capable, but to conceive this as only applying to spec sheets is crazy. If what we are seeing now are its unfinished launch titles or titles still in working stage for its early, first generation, I'm telling you guys as honest as I can - the console is going to pull away once developers began pushing its true performance.

[Viper]

The software will make the difference in sales far more than the difference in graphics ever will.

[gozirah]

Domination, well there is certainly alot in the x360 that is custom, so you have to give this iteration some credit. I don't think its obvious just looking at company credentials what these machines are capable of. I keep hearing that the xbox 360 has an edge in terms of ease of development. That has to be worth something.

But that could be a crutch ultimately. Maybe what the cell is offering is a back to basics approach, optimizing performance rather than ease of programming.

[lips]

The software will make the difference in sales far more than the difference in graphics ever will.

Could be, but I don't think saying 'bigger hits on x360 will make it a bigger hit' is the true notion the article is getting across. Other wise you could assume nintendo, given an equal potential to have hit software, would definitely have the most sales, as the wii is easiest to mass produce. Even after huge hits like 'dead rising' x360 still fails to impress buyers away from new ps2 purchases. Why won't big hits arrive for ps3? I don't know, and could not guess, the article really ends up saying nothing next to a bunch of made up stats.

[OmniCloud]

^LOL...I think we've all pretty much tarnished the article predictions no matter what system we were supporting...Viper makes a good point tho-that actually ties is with me and Domination's argument. Content is King right? Well if early PS3 content is producing these results, then won't some amazing stuff come down the line? I don't care about a developer saying we're only using half of the Cell and all that crap. It's simply a known issue tha Cell is tough to program for. Too many devs have already revealed it. It's just logical to assume Cell's potential is nowhere near tapped into-and this can even be supported by articles PSINEXT have posted itself. Just how Wii's potential with the wiimote is just warming up, so are PS3 games! All of these titles we're excited about now-are fairly early in PS3 life cycle-Resistance, Lair, HS, GTHD, VF5-all coming out within 4 and 5 months of PS3's launch that not only are close to 360's games-but surpassing them in some areas.

I think 360's ease of development is already seeing it's fruition. Your seeing some really good looking games early in 360's life cycle-Oblivion, Gears, SP4. The issue is, none of these games are showing me, that "GIGANTIC LEAP" that I felt when I played MGS then played MGS2. Or going from Street Fighter to VF4. How about the first time you saw Jak and Daxter, or GranTurismo 3. I won't praise Sony to death and say all of there games are having that effect on me, but MotorStorm is definitely one of those games. MGS4 is one of those games, and believe it or not-White Knight Story is one of those games! The leap is bigger, the system is just getting started-and It's hard to not see a 360 game that doesn't resemble a PC port.

[Crossbar]

Here is some more guess work over at Next-Gen of predicted reviews of launch titles of Wii and PS3.

Anyone of us could have written that obvious stuff. :)

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4078&Itemid=2&limit=1&limitstart=1
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4078&Itemid=2

[Domination]

Domination, well there is certainly alot in the x360 that is custom, so you have to give this iteration some credit. I don't think its obvious just looking at company credentials what these machines are capable of. I keep hearing that the xbox 360 has an edge in terms of ease of development. That has to be worth something.

But that could be a crutch ultimately. Maybe what the cell is offering is a back to basics approach, optimizing performance rather than ease of programming.

I believe you are confusing custom tech with an in-house achitecture. By doing the first, you are simply relying on someone elses available limitations and or flexibility. The only different now is Microsoft having control over its fabrication to help reduce cost, but the overall partnership deal is really no different from the previous.

Let's not forget that the two were finalised within a set period of one another.

Overall, I think the 360's achitecture holds it's own advantages, no doubt, to those in the PlayStation. But I believe its biggest down fall is where the previous above has played the most crucial barrier.

To have a console that is more difficult to work with in comparison to another totally opposite of that, the results should not be this close, never mind superior, when you have another that's been on the market for almost a year now. So to think its advantage only applies on a spec sheet will only be setting yourself up for disappointment in the end. I promise you that. It's far too obvious to ignore.

The software will make the difference in sales far more than the difference in graphics ever will.

No doubt it will, Viper.