PDA

View Full Version : Ernest Adams's Prediction


pari
12-23-2006, 02:57 PM
http://www.gamasutra.com/features/20061222/adams_01.shtml


Ernest Adams is a freelance game designer, writer, and lecturer, and a member of the International Hobo game design consortium. He is the author of two books, Andrew Rollings and Ernest Adams on Game Design, with Andrew Rollings; and Break Into the Game Industry: How to Get a Job Making Video Games. Ernest was most recently employed as a lead designer at Bullfrog Productions, and for several years before that he was the audio/video producer on the Madden NFL Football product line. He has developed on-line, computer, and console games for everything from the IBM 360 mainframe to the Playstation 2. He was a founder of the International Game Developers' Association, and a frequent lecturer at the Game Developers' Conference. Ernest would be happy to receive E-mail about his columns at ewadams@designersnotebook.com, and you may visit his professional web site at http://www.designersnotebook.com. The views in this column are strictly his own.



The Designer's Notebook: PS3 versus Wii - The Designer's Perspective

For a long time, I’ve had a theory that there’s always room for two-and-a-half game consoles in the market – that is, two main contenders battling for first place and an also-ran that survives but never stands a chance of doing better than third. Being either first or second is normally good enough to guarantee healthy sales and long-term survival. The more critical question is, who will be the also-ran?

This market mechanic has been pretty stable ever since the head-to-head battle between the Sega Genesis and the Super Nintendo. In third place was the SNK Neo-Geo with its huge $70 cartridges. In the optical media era, Sony brought out the Playstation, Sega gave us the Saturn, and Nintendo hung onto cartridges for one more generation with the N64. From being a major contender, Nintendo dropped into third place and has since failed to recover. Cartridges have the advantage of being sturdy and chewable, thus good for little kids, but they’re slow and expensive to make, while the cost of goods on an optical disc is well under $1 in quantity. Optical disks hold far more data, too, so you can sell bigger games for less money. In retrospect, despite Nintendo’s good intentions and some excellent games, the N64 was a strategic mistake.

Developers hated the Saturn, however, and after a year or two of frustration, many refused to support it. Sony roared ahead and cemented their lead with the PS2. Microsoft entered the race a solid second with the original Xbox, and Nintendo hung on to its #3 spot with the GameCube. Sega dropped farther back in the pack with the Dreamcast, and ultimately quit the race entirely, vowing to become a software-only publisher (while still doing nicely in Japan with arcade games, pachinko machines, and the like).

So now we’re at another generation. The Xbox 360 came out swinging early, and it’s a good solid machine. Then there’s the PS3, which is undoubtedly the most powerful game console ever built but too expensive, and the Wii, which has taken a radically different approach. Who’ll end up as the also-ran?

The answer will have to do with a lot of factors beyond a game designer’s, or any game developer’s, control. Sad to say, while the quality of the early games for a console does matter, good games alone cannot guarantee a console’s success. More important are its price (to the casual players), its hardware features (to the hardcore players), and even its form factor (the Japanese are reputed to have ignored the first Xbox because it was just too big and clunky for their apartments). The media, both gaming and mainstream, are busy comparing the new consoles. But what are the pros and cons from a design standpoint?

There’s no question that more computing power enables us to do things that we couldn’t otherwise do. We can put more characters on the screen; we can put more brains in their heads. We can use CPU-intensive techniques like inverse kinematics to create better animation, especially interactions between characters in games that involve a lot of physical contact such as wrestling or rugby. Our physics and visual effects will be both spectacular and accurate. In short, the PS3 is a programmer’s and a filmmaker’s dream. If you’re a visual thinker, if much of the entertainment that you provide is through the richness or the verisimilitude of your imagery, then there’s no question that the PS3 is the way to go.

The PS3 is another step in a long chain of graphical and computing improvements that began with Spacewar. It’s a big step, and technically speaking, the inclusion of the Cell processor is a very important – and challenging – innovation. Most game programmers don’t know much about multiprocessing. The PS3 raises the bar, and to get the most out of it requires some high-level wizardry.

From a design standpoint, however, the PS3 is evolutionary, not revolutionary. It doesn’t change much about our job. It makes it easier to design the same stuff we’ve always designed, but it doesn’t encourage us to try anything particularly new.

That’s where the Wii excels. Nintendo has bet the company on a radical new approach to gaming. Gameplay, they said, is really about interactions, not graphics. The Wii Remote gives players new things to do, which means it challenges us designers to come up with those things. Furthermore, it takes away functionality found on other consoles. Instead of the eleven buttons, two analog joysticks, and a D-pad of the PS3 controller, it has only six buttons and a D-pad. To design for this, we have to think differently – we have no choice about it. By contrast, Sony has hedged its bets. Its controller is wireless now, and it contains some motion-sensing capability, but it’s still definitely a two-handed device, almost identical to the Dual Shock. It’s not the kind of thing that encourages the player to see it as a light saber, tennis racket, fishing rod, or six-shooter – or to get up off the couch.

It took a lot of guts to do that. If either players or developers hate the Wii Remote, the Wii is doomed. Sure, there’s the Nunchuck to give them a joystick, and even the Wii Classic Controller, which looks startlingly like a good old SNES controller with added joysticks. But these are extra-cost items; they can’t save the Wii if the ordinary Wii Remote tanks with the consumer.

So which do I want to design for? From a creativity standpoint, it’s the Wii, hands down (or up!). The human-computer interaction people have a buzzword they’re fond of: affordance. Affordance refers to the possible actions that a tool, or other object, provides or suggests to the user. The Wii Remote offers a different and quite new set of affordances to the player: steering with it, waving it, jabbing it, pointing it, stirring with it, paddling with it, and so on. It’s the wizard’s magic wand we’ve always wanted. All we have to do is supply the magic.

This point brings up a larger and more general issue. As game designers, we love the universality of computerized entertainment. You can do all kinds of things with a computer that you can’t do when designing a tabletop game such as a board game or a card game. The universality of the computer has made possible the staggering range of video games, from Pong to Civilization IV, and that power and freedom is attractive to us designers.

But that freedom lies entirely within the mental part of gameplay: the rules, the victory conditions, the challenges we offer to the player. It doesn’t speak to the physical part of play. In this respect, all video games are still constrained, and to some extent defined, by their I/O devices. Most mouse-based games stink on joystick-based machines. PC games seldom work well in multiplayer local mode, because PC input devices aren’t normally designed for more than one user. To offer new kinds of physical play, we need new kinds of devices.

In other words, Sony’s most revolutionary gaming innovation was not the PS3, but the Eye Toy. It wasn’t really the first camera for a game device – Nintendo had the Game Boy Camera, and Sega offered the Dreameye for the Dreamcast in Japan – but it was the first to be widely available, and to be connected to a machine with enough horsepower to do something useful with the images. Because the Eye Toy wasn’t bundled with the machine, few titles absolutely required an Eye Toy, and so its use has mostly been confined to mini-games or optional features. Still, it affords – there’s that word again – the players a new way to interact with the games that wasn’t possible before.

Now, longtime readers of this column will know that I’m not a big fan of hardware-driven game design. Designing a game specifically to show off a new graphics chip seldom results in innovative gameplay, no matter how good the game looks. But output devices are about you and what you want to show the player. Input devices, on the other hand, are about the player and what you want to enable him to do – and that, after all, is the point of video gaming in the first place. So cameras, microphones, and dance mats are all opportunities for us to think more creatively about games and play. A few, such as the Guitar Hero controller, are too specific to be useful for much else besides rocking out, but that’s OK – they make possible a unique play-experience that’s not available any other way. The genius of the Wii Remote is in its generality. It requires the player to use his imagination (and that’s no bad thing), but it also offers a much wider range of experiences from a single device.

So who, at the end of the day, will be the also-ran in this generation of consoles? On the global scale, I’d say it could well be neither the PS3 or the Wii, but the Xbox 360. The PS3 will win over the hardcore gamers who have to have the fastest, most amazing machine available. The Wii will skim off the younger players and those who don’t have as much money to spend.

Both have the advantage of being made in Japan, so they’ll crowd the Xbox right out of that market. In the US and Europe, it’s harder to say, but I see the Xbox’s early start as more of a liability than a benefit. They’ve racked up several million sales, but they can no longer claim to be the latest, greatest thing – especially as the PS3 plays Blu-Ray disks out of the box, but HD-DVD is only available for the Xbox as an add-on. The Dreamcast got an early start too, and look how that ended.

In the meantime, I’d love to design a few Wii games. Maybe I’ll start with something obvious, like a port of Whac-a-Mole. Try that with a pair of analog joysticks!

I would say, Ernest Adams is going against the current to predict that the fight would be between wii and PS3, 360 is going to be outdated pretty soon..

Not mentioned is the PS3-PSP connection, if Sony can deliver a better game play than what Nintendo did Gamecube-GBA that would be a big plus point. Second Eye of Judgement is also not mentioned. After the Wii-Remote, I believe Eye of Judgement is the next best innovative game appealing to all casual games, no button pushing or mashing...

My predictions
1. 360 with HD-DVD integrated instead of DVD, when PS3/Blu-ray starts showing Blu-ray advantage.
2. PSP competitor portable gaming system, that does exactly like PS3/PSP combination. Its not going to Zune with game capability.
3. EyeToy equivalent with game play (already out there...)

cliffbo
12-23-2006, 03:20 PM
On the global scale, I’d say it could well be neither the PS3 or the Wii, but the Xbox 360

I see the Xbox’s early start as more of a liability than a benefit. They’ve racked up several million sales, but they can no longer claim to be the latest, greatest thing – especially as the PS3 plays Blu-Ray disks out of the box, but HD-DVD is only available for the Xbox as an add-on. The Dreamcast got an early start too, and look how that ended.

eh?

VG Aficionado
12-23-2006, 03:20 PM
Finally someone with brains, who is not riding the "PS3 sucks because I say so" wave and who realises and tells everyone that 360 can't win if it's a distant third in Japan already, once again.

Viano
12-23-2006, 03:27 PM
well, the external hddvd drive is a joke anyways..

cliffbo
12-23-2006, 03:33 PM
well, the external hddvd drive is a joke anyways..

yeh, but you can put it in the drawer if your not using it... oh, the innovation

Black Dragon37
12-23-2006, 04:36 PM
Well, it is an add-on, after all. :)

masteratt
12-23-2006, 05:08 PM
It would be okay if it could play games but then comes the dilemma of "you must buy a hd-dvd add on to play this game"...Come to think of it, since when did Microsoft have a problem with forcing players buying their crap? ;) lol

Anywayn, MS bashing aside, this guy sounds as unsure as the next person I see on the street.
He is basically saying "well, it can be either PS3 or Wii...." Well, duh.

Garfunkel
12-24-2006, 01:53 AM
he seems indecisive, now i'm not sure :(

julps31
12-24-2006, 01:56 AM
yeh, but you can put it in the drawer if your not using it... oh, the innovationExactly...they do give you a choice. ;)

bilbobob007
12-24-2006, 02:11 AM
Exactly...they do give you a choice. ;)

Yeah like m$ are giving pc game owners a choice. NOT! Very soon along will come Vista and directx 10. And soon enough every game will require it and directx 10 is only for vista. Oh can we see were this is going. Strange that. There are a lot of you out there pulling Sony down for forcing blu ray. But tell you what M$ are just as bad.

Garfunkel
12-24-2006, 02:17 AM
Yeah like m$ are giving pc game owners a choice. NOT! Very soon along will come Vista and directx 10. And soon enough every game will require it and directx 10 is only for vista. Oh can we see were this is going. Strange that. There are a lot of you out there pulling Sony down for forcing blu ray. But tell you what M$ are just as bad.

Oh there much worse then bad.

Xerxes
12-24-2006, 04:52 PM
yeh, but you can put it in the drawer if your not using it... oh, the innovation

Haha. You can also put it in the living room to make it look more cluttered. :)
Makes a great doorstop. :)

Sephiroth_VII
12-24-2006, 04:59 PM
eh?

Seconded. He contradicts himself:splitspin

cliffbo
12-24-2006, 05:01 PM
Seconded. He contradicts himself:splitspin

all of that to say: 'it could be anyone' what a waste of my eyes...

Black Dragon37
12-24-2006, 05:03 PM
He said that last place could be the Xbox 360, and stated his reasons.

No contradiction there. ;)

Sephiroth_VII
12-24-2006, 05:05 PM
But his reasons were negative towards the 360. I think that's pretty clear :huh:

Nameless
12-24-2006, 05:38 PM
Meh...
Seems like everyone has a prediction.

Sephiroth_VII
12-24-2006, 08:16 PM
I predict that Phantom is going to win the console war...

Now I'm an analyst :dur:

VG Aficionado
12-24-2006, 09:04 PM
I predict that Phantom is going to win the console war...

Now I'm an analyst :dur:LOL

Garfunkel
12-25-2006, 12:12 AM
I predict that Phantom is going to win the console war...

Now I'm an analyst :dur:

Yeah i agree, it will obviously win even though it will never see the light of day.

lol

Sephiroth_VII
12-25-2006, 12:31 AM
But. but it's the future!! It'll innovate the entire industry through it's amazing, never seen, GAME DOWNLOAD SERVICE!!! Now THAT'S innovative, and at the same time, it easily alienates 25% of the market; the gamers with dial-up.

Who needs them, anyway!?

Garfunkel
12-25-2006, 02:05 AM
stupid dialupers clogging the tubes!

OmniCloud
12-25-2006, 03:53 AM
He said that last place could be the Xbox 360, and stated his reasons.

No contradiction there. ;)I think he made a typo...Either that, or he's an idiot...