Analyst Picks Sony To Win Console Wars

[Red_Eyes]

It's a first for the industry.
by Micah Seff

January 24, 2007 - A recent report published by market research group Research and Markets (the redundancy gives us a headache too) has chosen Sony's PS3 as the winner of the next-generation console wars. The report, titled The Transforming Global Video Games Market: The Emergence of Next Generation Gaming, deals primarily with the impact of next-generation consoles on the online games sector.

Based on its extensive analysis of the current growth trends in the industry, Research and Markets expects Sony's PlayStation 3 to come out on top in the next-generation console war. The group expects the PS3 to have an installed user base of around 75 million globally by the year 2010. While the study notes that both Sony and Nintendo offer unique products, Research and Markets still felt that Sony's superior technology would give them the edge over the competition.

Although the group designated Sony as the future market leader this gen, they gave very little in the way of reasoning to back up this claim. The primary focus of the study was analyzing the impact of next-generation consoles on the online games sector, rather than determining the factors which might lead to dominance in the next-generation console market.

Source: http://ps3.ign.com/articles/758/758121p1.html

[ChicagoBear]

I honestly think NONE of these analysts are any more informed than your average gaming forum poster. Every one keeps making predictions for all companies (Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo), and get to keep their jobs even they get it wrong.

They are like freaking weathermen! :susp:

[Viper]

I love how twice now we've seen analysts predict Sony to win and give them a number but they never give MS or Nintendo a number.

Why is that?

[orcus116]

75 million in 3 years? That's a hefty prediction. At the rate the PS3 is going only a major pricecut could make that possible.

[curryking1]

Hey analysts! Kiss my big fat ***!!!! YA! THAT'S RIGHT!

But come one, seriously, there are currently far, far too many variables that are literally impossible to take into account not to mention intangibles.

This is only one possibility for the future of the gaming market. And it's almost impossible to say how likely or unlikely it is because the PS3 just frigging came out and BD has still yet to show how important of a factor it will be.

Analysts can presume these things, but they got no eyes that are seeing more than us.

[LaLiLuLeLo]

Yadda Yadda YADDAH.

[Smokey]

fookin analysts *sigh*

[Rip3001]

I would just like to point out the first four letters of their profession...that is all.

[Smokey]

I would just like to point out the first four letters of their profession...that is all.

LMFAO :)

[KiLLA2006]

I honestly think NONE of these analysts are any more informed than your average gaming forum poster. Every one keeps making predictions for all companies (Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo), and get to keep their jobs even they get it wrong.

They are like freaking weathermen! :susp:

well to retort to this users opinion... DUDE!!!! NICE FUKN NAME!!! GO BEARS!!!:drunk: :cheers:

thank you...

[VG Aficionado]

well to retort to this users opinion... DUDE!!!! NICE FUKN NAME!!! GO BEARS!!!:drunk: :cheers:

thank you...Uh, well, he's gone... again. But I've got the feeling he'll be back :ohno:

[KiLLA2006]

oh... that message wasn't for him... it was for everyone to know that im a chicago bears fan!

[PUNK em 733]

*sigh*

[Colin™]

exactly how does one become an analyst anyway?

"Hey Bill, I see you really analyzed that spreadsheet there. I like how you highlighted all those big numbers and mentioned what might happen in a year by looking at general trends and the Farmer's Almanac. You're our analyst now. Pick what you want to analyze and we'll cut you a fat paycheck."

[woundingchaney]

I dont doubt that Sony could/is going to lead this gen. in sales but for once I would like to see a breakdown of how they come up with the numbers.

[Garfunkel]

^they do exactly that wounding. Pull crap out of their ass and hope people will believe them.

I do think Sony will win but i just hate ANALysts so much.

[nemesis121]

I don't think Sony will lead this Gen, the Price of the system is too High, plus We have Nintendo showing Sony and MS that Innovation beat out Graphics, I may be wrong, but it's not looking good for Sony Right now, the Wii Sold 3.19 Million in 2006, and I wonder how much more it will Sell in 07? I wouldn't be SHOCK if Nintendo was the Market leader by the end of 07.

[Garfunkel]

I think, soon ninty will overtake ms, as soon as that happens, i think ms have no chance this gen, i think ninty will lead until 08 when the ps3 starts to drop in price a lot and proves it has future proofed. By 09 I expect the ps3 to have overtaken the wii and by 2010 it will be all over.

by Q1 2010 i think we will see:

ps3 - 73 million
Wii - 62 million
360 - 33 million

[VG Aficionado]

PS3 won't remain expensive forever, you know. If they can't sell enough units, they'll end up lowering the price sooner or later, but they need more games rather than price cuts early on. Fortunately, the games are coming in large numbers very soon and it's not really doing that bad considering it's been launched two months ago with serious shortages, lack of software and with strong competition.

If we had to rely on sales units right now, Nintendo would win the generation. That's assuming they can keep their game experiences fresh with the Wiimote for the next five years and that not too many people care about graphics and sound in said period. I wouldn't mind seeing them on top though, I think it would be quite a good thing even though I'm still not too interested on the Wii right now. Anyway, we'd have to discuss now whether Wii is in direct competition with the other two systems.

I don't know what will happen at the end of the generation. 360 is a way better system than the original Xbox in terms of games but it's still very much a hardcore online gamer system. Wii is selling very well and its future looks bright, but I don't know whether its novelty will wear off dramatically or not. And PS3... it's the new big PlayStation system. It has many of the most successful franchises to date, it has many exclusive games, there's a very good chance it can manage to sell better than 360 worldwide due to Japanese support and despite of a very tough start, it isn't performing worse than 360 at launch. I could see Nintendo coming on top and Sony being second, but somehow it's a bit hard to see how 360 would end up third worldwide, or maybe by a thin and debatable margin. I can't see Sony being third either, and Nintendo shouldn't be third this time...

Like I just said, there's no way to guess educately now, we never know what surprises we'll see from all three systems over the years. There won't be an overwhelming winner like in the PS2 generation. I think all three systems will be quite strong and share the market nicely, which is a good thing because the tougher the competition, the better games.

[Garfunkel]

I think that at the end of the day, nintendo will just not have the 3rd party to back them up, they are going great now, but i don't know about in 2 years time....

[woundingchaney]

I dont see MS slowing in sales until late mid 2008 and even then with price cuts they could keep a good momentum. This year is full of very impressive titles and the industrys 2 major titles are coming to the system (well NA titles anyways). Sony doesnt look like its going to be experiencing any price cuts anytime soon, so where as it might not be expensive forever it will remain so for awhile. Even if they cut 100usd from price in the next 2-3 years your still looking at 400-500 usd for the console. Although it is fair to mention that people seem willing to pay the price and once BR and the titles become more recognizable to the public I believe it will see a sales increase. Nin is by far the wild card here. Right now I think they are selling on price-Zelda-and gimmick/innovation. I believe that once the consumer comes to terms with the new controller they could slow but with their price point and first party recognition they could walk away with the whole thing (picked one up the other day, that damn bowling and tennis is addictive).

I would have never guessed the figures would look like this a year ago and at this point I think its way too early to doom or uplift any one of the console.

@VG- I agree that MS is still very much a console that caters to the hardcore Western consumer.

[Z]

one analyst says this and another says that. what I am interested is not in their final decision, but how the reached that decision.
it is interesting for me to see the process and thought put into trying to predict such outcomes especially in such an industry as the entertainment sector.
I honestly think NONE of these analysts are any more informed than your average gaming forum poster.
though analysts may not always make precise prediction- as only the test of time could be the final judge- they do however base their outcome from a lot of studied market performance, changing circumstances, recorded numbers, etc. these firms aren't exactly made of a couple of drunks eating Cheetos and releasing predictions.
that is why I am interested more in the proces than the final opinion.

[VG Aficionado]

I think that at the end of the day, nintendo will just not have the 3rd party to back them up, they are going great now, but i don't know about in 2 years time....I think that's Nintendo's main problem since long ago, as I don't think they ever had as strong 3rd party support as the other systems. DS is selling great but most of the highest selling games are 1st party ones.

@VG- I agree that MS is still very much a console that caters to the hardcore Western consumer.That's the main reason why I don't buy one. All those shooters and online-centric games don't really appeal to me. I may end up buying one later on when it gets cheaper, has a much wider library of games that don't involve shooting, gets a larger HDD and hopefully a standard HD-DVD drive with HDMI (to make it complementary with my PS3 so that I wouldn't miss any HD movies), although I may be expecting too much but I am in no hurry and I'll see what happens. However, don't expect me to buy more than two or three shooters (you can be sure Halo 3 won't be among them though), and you can be sure you'll never see me playing online (unless it's free, temporarily or not). I love that I don't have to pay for online multiplayer on PS3 as it's something I don't really need. MotorStorm could be the first game in my life where I'd spend more time playing online with you guys than offline.

these firms aren't exactly made of a couple of drunks eating Cheetos and releasing predictions. More like made of pompous jerks who are willing to spread a few lies so that the stock of a given company falls and they make a lot of money buying it cheap and selling it expensive *coughmerryllynchcough*.

[Garfunkel]

Totally with you VG, could've said the exact same thing, i'm sick of FPS's too (i enjoy them on PC but on consoles they just don't appeal).

[VG Aficionado]

Totally with you VG, could've said the exact same thing, i'm sick of FPS's too (i enjoy them on PC but on consoles they just don't appeal).I bought Black for PS2 a month ago at a very cheap price and I still haven't felt like playing it. If I don't play it before FFXII launches, I'll get my PS3 by the time I'm done with FFXII and there's a chance I'd never play it! If it hadn't been that cheap and wasn't made by Criterion and got good reviews, I'd surely have never bought it.

[Black Dragon37]

So the reason the Xbox 360 is a hardcore console is because it lacks variety in the game library?

That's understandable.

[Z]

I bought Black for PS2 a month ago at a very cheap price and I still haven't felt like playing it.
pop it in the next time you get close to your PS2. you won't regret it. ;)
So the reason the Xbox 360 is a hardcore console is because it lacks variety in the game library?
a system's image is defined largely by the manufacturer and how they chose to advertise for it.

[Red_Eyes]

Sony will win. Why? 3rd party support. Just look at all the games that are coming out to the PS3 this year. And the next. And the next... And the next...

[woundingchaney]

Sony will win. Why? 3rd party support. Just look at all the games that are coming out to the PS3 this year. And the next. And the next... And the next...

Well 3rd party support doesnt seem to be any more impressive than MS's so far.

I honestly look for Sony to eventually come out on top becuase of their name/brand recognition and first party exclusives (arguably for BR movie playback if it takes a foothold in the market).

[jaxmkii]

Uh, well, he's gone... again. But I've got the feeling he'll be back :ohno:

LOL undercover cop again? :laugh: he must be on MS's payroll or one hell of a loser

I think, soon ninty will overtake ms, as soon as that happens, i think ms have no chance this gen, i think ninty will lead until 08 when the ps3 starts to drop in price a lot and proves it has future proofed. By 09 I expect the ps3 to have overtaken the wii and by 2010 it will be all over.

by Q1 2010 i think we will see:

ps3 - 73 million
Wii - 62 million
360 - 33 million
I could live with that.

I think that at the end of the day, nintendo will just not have the 3rd party to back them up, they are going great now, but i don't know about in 2 years time....

much like the GC... I just hope the Wii gives them a better share than 360.

f$%^ MS

i hope buy 2012 we see a three way battle between Sony Nitty and... i dont know apple?

i would like to see a "iPlay"

OH SH17 sorry about the triple post come on guys you gotta keep up!

much like the GC... I just hope the Wii gives them a better share than 360.

f$%^ MS

i hope buy 2012 we see a three way battle between Sony Nitty and... i dont know apple?

i would like to see a "iPlay"

EDIT: OH SH17 sorry about the triple post come on guys you gotta keep up!

EDIT: GOD DAMN IT WHY DOSE THE EDIT BUTTON AND QUOTE BUTTON KEEP SWITCHING!

help me i keep posting and i cant stop!

[Z]

Well 3rd party support doesnt seem to be any more impressive than MS's so far.
if by 'so far' you mean what has been released, then obviously yes. a year head start tends to give you that advantage. but there are more games in the works announced for PS3 than any other console- by far.

[Red_Eyes]

Wanna wiki that list?

[Ocelot9]

How could I have missed this thread....ok...I'm going to spread the news if I still can...good find +rep

[Viano]

PS3 definitely has more supports..

[Kabbage]

I have said it before ... as long as they sell enough to not die like the dreamcast and still get game support... I dont care what place they are in.

[jaxmkii]

I care because i want Sony to keep making money for future systems. If PS3 succeds in making money for sony they will be willing to build bigger, better and more expencive systems down the road. i dont care nessicarly about market share but i do care about profitiblity.

I have stated it before i come from PC gaming where spending 3000+ every 18 months is the norm. to spend 600usd for a 5-10 year system is AWSOME!

if PS3 ultamitly dose well @600usd Sony might be willing to have a 800-1000usd target for PS4. yea i dont care if that would cause sony to lose favor to nitty or MS. as long as there where 80+ million sold eventualy as to make a strong enuff market to develop for thats it.