Toshiba lowers sales forecast for HD-DVD players by 44%

[VG Aficionado]

Toshiba lowers sales forecast for HD-DVD players by 44% (http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=7648)

As the battle between the Blu-ray and HD DVD disc standard slithers along, both camps are looking for ways to get a "leg up" on the other.

Both sides have looked to consoles to increase marketshare. Microsoft's Xbox 360 can be equipped with a $199 HD DVD add-on and every Sony PlayStation 3 console comes equipped with a Blu-ray drive. The inclusion of the Blu-ray drive on the PS3 instantly gave Sony some serious firepower in the next generation high-definition wars.

Toshiba has countered by offering promotions to boost the sales of its HD DVD players. The company has a current promotion where customers who purchase a Toshiba HD DVD player can receive five free HD DVDs via a mail-in rebate.

This week, Toshiba is also offering a $100 instant discount on all HD DVD players to celebrate "Father's Day." The discount effectively brings the price of the low-end HD-A2 to $299.

In addition, Toshiba announced efforts to include HD DVD drives on all of its notebooks next year. Toshiba shipped 9.2 million notebooks in 2006, so making the drive standard issue would do wonders for boosting HD DVD penetration.

Despite Toshiba efforts to latch onto the console market, offer special promotions and expand its use of HD DVD drive in the mobile sector, the company is revising its forecast for HD DVD player sales. Unfortunately for Toshiba, the forecast is one that is trending downward.

The company announced that it lowered its North American sales forecasts for calendar year 2007 from 1.8 million units to 1 million units -- a decrease of 44 percent. The adjustment for the North American market will also affect global sales forecasts, but no estimate was given by Yoshihide Fujii, Toshiba's head of consumer electronics. "Obviously we are going to have to lower our previous global estimate."

Toshiba cites lower than expected unit sales for the lower forecast.:shrug:

[masteratt]

Hahahaha.

Okay say it with me:
STOP LOSING MORE MONEY AND JUST ADMIT DEFEAT.

The sooner this already won war is actually over, the less annoyed consumers will be when the next generation of entertainment comes out.

HD-DVD is like the nerdy kid who wants to hang out with the cool kids but he never can so he goes to drastic measures to be accepted.
Sorry nerdylito, no dice!

[Coded-Dude]

http://www1.istockphoto.com/file_thumbview_approve/1237297/2/istockphoto_1237297_coffin_nail.jpg

[Viper]

Hahahaha.

Okay say it with me:
STOP LOSING MORE MONEY AND JUST ADMIT DEFEAT.

Why are you talking about the PS3 that way?

[frosty]

I think you meant to say Xbox, as we all know it's lost many times more than PS3 ever did.

[masteratt]

Why are you talking about the PS3 that way?

PS3 is just losing money for it's first few years.

That's expected of any major product especially one that's risking it's ass in the sake of future-proof technology.

[Viper]

Listen to this, lol. Deflecting the blow.

PS2 made 2-3 billion in profit for Sony in 7 years. PS3 lost them 2 billion in year one. Now they have to make that 2 billion back and still make a billion or two all in the next few years. You know damn well future proofing is nothing more than marketing speak. PS3 is a 10 year program not because they think it will still compete with next gen systems but because they have to to make their money back and legitimize their initial expenses. Think business guys.

Point being was if you want something to admit defeat and stop losing money, the same should apply to PS3......and Xbox.

[Coded-Dude]

The only difference is....consoles originally get sold at a loss, while this hardware dos not.

Blu-Ray bolsters wider support from Hardware manufacturers as well as Software Distributors. Not only that, but it has a larger storage capacity. The only real advantage HD DVD has, is price, and currently only wealthy people and tech lovers are investing in HD. They both usually want the "better" format. But if it were up to the average joe six-pack, then price would be a larger factor. However, I fear the lead may be too great by the time the cost-reduced hardware comes into play.

Also, HD DVD came out first, had the lead, and lost it when BD was released.
That can't be said for the 360/PS3 yes, but if it had happened, then yes; you could be saying the similar things about Xbox.

Though it would've been interesting to see a company sell the Optical Drives at a significant loss, just to keep a "lead."

[Viper]

In addition, Toshiba announced efforts to include HD DVD drives on all of its notebooks next year. Toshiba shipped 9.2 million notebooks in 2006, so making the drive standard issue would do wonders for boosting HD DVD penetration.Someone must have missed this part of the article because it's about to have a huge boost in installed base. 9.2 million would put it above PS3's Blu Ray levels.

The reduction to 1 million units is stand alone units. How many stand alone Blu Ray players are selling?

Both mediums are losing money. Both consoles are losing money. All 4 have potential to gain money.

[frosty]

Both mediums are losing money? Where is that stated?

And though PS3 may work as a trojan horse for Blu-Ray, I don't see laptops being as effective. They aren't designed to be at the center of the living room like the PS3 is.

[Viper]

Both mediums are losing money? Where is that stated?
Why not ask Masteratt?

That's expected of any major product especially one that's risking it's ass in the sake of future-proof technology.



As for the other half of your post, true that the PS3 may be a more viable movie watching station however neither are dedicated movie players and their values as a movie player can be debated. Point being the installed base would skyrocket over what it already has and it competes with Blu Ray already pretty damn well.

Every Sony fan wants to write off HD DVD but attempts to stifle the very same arguments used against PS3 that they use against HD DVD.

Are the circumstances different? Of course but the parallels are valid in that the circumstances that are debated are very similar. So which is it? HD DVD am cry....and PS3? Or is it selective differentials to support ones cause?

These anti HD DVD threads trip me up because of how this, that and the other are dooming HD DVD yet they won't admit similar issues on PS3. PS3 sold just under 15,000 units in the US last week. Even Gamecube was doing 50k per week at this same point in time and both launched in Nov.

You have to admit, it's a double standard.

[frosty]

Gamecube also didn't cost $600, but I see your point.

As for Toshiba putting the drives in their laptops, if you want to get into that you also have to take into account the support Blu-Ray has from PC community. What happens when Apple and Dell start putting BD drives in all of their laptops as well as desktops? Toshiba doesn't have any advantage there, they are just trying to play it up as such.

And I meant mediums, not systems. Masteratt's comment was about systems.

[Viper]

Are they default on all or an option? That's a huge difference.

[masteratt]

Why not ask Masteratt?
I just assumed that since HD-DVD has been doing nothing but going down hill in sales with Blu-Ray picking up steam and now these desperate measures, they sound like they are losing a lot of money and are in their last straw.
Not to mention lack of studio support compared to Blu-Ray, how long can they...No, how long do they want to keep this up?



As for the other half of your post, true that the PS3 may be a more viable movie watching station however neither are dedicated movie players and their values as a movie player can be debated. Point being the installed base would skyrocket over what it already has and it competes with Blu Ray already pretty damn well.
Yes but Blu-Ray is now taking over.
Blu-Ray is going upwards in sales while HD-DVD is dipping or staying same or maybe has a day where it gets close to Blu-Ray etc.
Point being that Blu-Ray is now becoming customer's favourite choice (Over 70% market share, last time I heard)

Every Sony fan wants to write off HD DVD but attempts to stifle the very same arguments used against PS3 that they use against HD DVD.

Are the circumstances different? Of course but the parallels are valid in that the circumstances that are debated are very similar. So which is it? HD DVD am cry....and PS3? Or is it selective differentials to support ones cause?
I won't deny that PS3 is shit in terms of money but a console war is different.
People usually want only one DVD to buy but the console market has always proven to show that the loser can come back up and fight again.
And we all know the weapons Sony has up it's sleeves with the PS3 while HD-DVD just resorts to desperate measures.
And once you go behind Sony, you are fucked.

These anti HD DVD threads trip me up because of how this, that and the other are dooming HD DVD yet they won't admit similar issues on PS3. PS3 sold just under 15,000 units in the US last week. Even Gamecube was doing 50k per week at this same point in time and both launched in Nov.

You have to admit, it's a double standard.

Yes I admit there is definitely a double standard in this forum in favour of Sony and yes I know I'm probably labelled as a Sony fan but to put HD-DVDs situation and PS3s situation in the same basket is just not possible for the reasons given above.

[Viper]

but the console market has always proven to show that the loser can come back up and fight again.

Can you name me one instance where a console fell behind and came back?


I'll grant there are enough differences that the comparison between PS3 sales and future and HD sales and future won't parallel completely but it was the nature of the issues I was more or less debating. The double standard itself.

Oddly enough there is one more parallel between games and the movie mediums....DVD is still stomping on both new formats. PS2 is still stomping all over both PS3 and X360.

[Coded-Dude]

HD DVD standalone player production will be half of what it was.....:wave:

Here is the principle difference - you buy one of these to make it the center of you Home Entertainment and that is NOT good for Movie Studios!

Sure one can argue PS3 is for gaming first and movies second, but it is still for BOTH.
(and a high percent of PS3 owners do indeed use it for movies)

How many laptop users are gonna start buying HD DVD movies?
(probably not near as many as PS3 owners will buy BD)

To me this is saying; its a format that can have advantages on the PC, but movie sales/support and stand alone player sales/support are not enough to justify current or even increased production.

Of course they could be riding on the outsourcing of the hardware, to let cheaper manufacturers make cheaper stand alone units.

[masteratt]

Can you name me one instance where a console fell behind and came back?
I meant once you lose a console war, you are not out.
Microsoft and Nintendo for example but come to think of it, Microsoft has unlimited money and Nintendo's console design allows each sale to be profitable...hmm.

And Sony has neither of those...I wonder if Sony lost the overall console war this gen, will they be out?

Oddly enough there is one more parallel between games and the movie mediums....DVD is still stomping on both new formats. PS2 is still stomping all over both PS3 and X360.
HD is growing and this HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray is confusing customers so once that settles, HD will establish itself.
And yeah Sony will kill the PS2 once they got their big games out for the PS3 and allow the customers to shift to PS3.

[Viper]

Let's say 1 out of every 9 Toshiba laptop buyer also watches movies on it. Suddenly that decrease in production is null as 1 in 9 of 9.2 million is just over 1 million making back the lost production in stand alone players.

Either way we can't predict how many will buy movies as well and I stated before, "their values as a movie player can be debated." Obviously the PS3 will have more movie watchers but you can't just claim all Toshiba owners as non-movie watchers. In fact, I gave PS3 full credit as installed base for Blu Ray movies as if they were stand alone players when I made my first total comparison regarding the Toshiba increase.

Let's do some more math then, shall we? At 15,000 PS3's sold this week, that's gives them about 60,000 units for the month...or just 360,000 units for the rest of the year. I'll triple that figure for new games and holidays so 1 million units. Globally we can expect just over twice that. 2.5 million more units unless something extremely drastic happens. This is compared to 4.6 million laptops (6 months). I'd say that keeps things much closer than the die off people expect for HD DVD.


Disclaimer: Rough numbers with basic accounts for holidays and games taken into account. The 15k number is accurate though.

[Garfunkel]

When Dell and HP, the largest PC makers in the world ship desktops and laptops with BD drives in them, you know it will happen, and they become standard on some lines, it will amount to a hell of a lot more then 9 million.

[Khaos]

All this pro-Blu-ray and anti-HDDVD really is annoying to me. It's a storage medium for crying out loud. I can see people in frosty's position being concerned, as he works with storage mediums as for his job, but everyone else needs to stop being so uptight about it, I believe.

Viper's caught my opinion on this yet again too. ;-]

[Eidorian]

All this pro-Blu-ray and anti-HDDVD really is annoying to me. It's a storage medium for crying out loud. I can see people in frosty's position being concerned, as he works with storage mediums as for his job, but everyone else needs to stop being so uptight about it, I believe.

Viper's caught my opinion on this yet again too. ;-]I have to agree with the media sentiments around here. frosty has a profession but everyone else just tags along.

+rep to Viper as always!

[frosty]

Oddly enough there is one more parallel between games and the movie mediums....DVD is still stomping on both new formats. PS2 is still stomping all over both PS3 and X360.

And the same happened with VHS and the PS1 before it.

[Garfunkel]

We might not have a profession but i certainly do care where and how my data is stored, Blu-ray is the best option for me.

[Viper]

I prefer a RAID 5 for my data. In terms of an optical medium for use with home movies or recording shows, etc...I myself haven't needed anything beyond a DVD yet. Then again, a burner for either new format is beyond budget anyway so it's tough to support something strongly that I don't have a use for and may not for a while. By the time I get an HDTV, I can stream media from my PC to the TV so I still won't need an optical storage device to burn movies to so by the time I even need a new player it will be more based on movies than capacity and dual drives will be out by then too.


Ooh, didn't think about that. How do those get counted? 1 a piece for HD DVD and Blu Ray?

[Garfunkel]

HD DVD needs 2x and BD needs 1.5 times to read a standard VC-1/h264 movie. but they go 2x/4x/8/ etc after that.

or did you mean layers?

[Viper]

Lol, no, I meant stand alone players that can read both formats.

[Garfunkel]

haha, didn't think about that, you raise an interesting point... I guess they would just count it separately as dual drives. Yet obviously when they count their sales they will combine it to inflate the number.

[frosty]

I don't think they will allow dual format players until a winner has been chosen. I can't wait though. This stupid war needs to end.

I personally hate HDD storage. It's too unreliable for long time storage. I use my HDD's far too often, so they wear out faster than the average drive (I suppose it has to do with the fact that the average file size I store on them is above 12GB, as much as 60GB per file. DV video is 1 GB per 5 minutes). If I could back up my DV video without having to first lose quality by compressing it to MPEG2 so it can fit on a DVD, that would be awesome. I could render a full quality mixdown in DV format, burn it to BD, and still be able to make more DVD's from it, or edit new video into it being that the quality of the old video will still be good enough that you won't be able to notice a difference between the two when it cuts from the old to the new clip. So, BD as a backup medium is perfect for me. Not to mention I don't have to worry about hearing that dreaded clicking sound of a dead hard drive and know my videos I have backed up are toast.

[Eidorian]

In before RAID wars Vs. optical media...

[Coded-Dude]

Sony is very confident about Blu-ray adoption is the US. The company recently stated that it hopes to see this year's Blu-ray player shipments increase to as much as six times as compared to 2006.
According to Next Generation, Randy Waynick (senior vice president of Sony’s U.S. home products division) is convinced that the number of Blu-ray players hitting the stores in the US in 2007 will be around 600,000. If such expectations prove to be true it would mean a huge leap for Sony, considering the fact that the company only shipped 100,000 in 2006.

Of course, there is the matter of getting consumers to buy the products, but it seems Sony is well-prepared on this side of the story too. As expected, the company plans to release new movies as Blu-ray exclusives.

No titles have been unveiled, but, according to Waynick, 14 or 15 new released will only join the Blu-ray side, out of a total of 20 top blockbusters.

It's no wonder Sony came up with such a statement. Basically, this is just a response to the North American HD DVD Promotional Group, which went public with some very promising figures yesterday. According to the group's report, the HD DVD was “significantly ahead in the dedicated consumer electronics player market”, with 60% of all high definition set-top players sold. HD DVD movie sales didn't go so bad either, with over 75,000 movies sold during the last week of May alone.

[Viper]

I read that about an hour ago too. It really puts a perspective into how many stand alone players each put to market.

Blu Ray - 600,000
HD DVD - 1.8 million.

If you needed further proof that the PS3 is THE driving factor behind the success of Blu Ray, here it is.

[Coded-Dude]

well, you could somewhat argue that was primarily due to Sony's own inability to produce enough laser diodes.....
They were confident and/or scared, so decided to put all efforts into the PS3, and not standalone players.
(I would have as well)

[Garfunkel]

I don't think they will allow dual format players until a winner has been chosen. I can't wait though. This stupid war needs to end.

I personally hate HDD storage. It's too unreliable for long time storage. I use my HDD's far too often, so they wear out faster than the average drive (I suppose it has to do with the fact that the average file size I store on them is above 12GB, as much as 60GB per file. DV video is 1 GB per 5 minutes). If I could back up my DV video without having to first lose quality by compressing it to MPEG2 so it can fit on a DVD, that would be awesome. I could render a full quality mixdown in DV format, burn it to BD, and still be able to make more DVD's from it, or edit new video into it being that the quality of the old video will still be good enough that you won't be able to notice a difference between the two when it cuts from the old to the new clip. So, BD as a backup medium is perfect for me. Not to mention I don't have to worry about hearing that dreaded clicking sound of a dead hard drive and know my videos I have backed up are toast.

Agreed, but i'm a fan of RAID setups.

But your right, with files as large as 60GB a HDD will shit itself within a few years (YAY for the freezer trick!). unless you have the money for dozens of HDD's in RAID redundancy you are going to have problems, optical is just too reliable. I'm in the same boat for the need of Blu-ray to be able to store my media and project files that i'll need a decade to come, hell some of my VM's are as large as 30GB and i wish i would like to go up to 100GB or so (if i could afford it) but just can't afford it at the moment, then there are those darn wav's that are a ripoff in terms of space and heaps of DV footage from cinelerra and premiere...

and don't get me started on the 3 DVD's needed for a debian sid install...

[Coded-Dude]

Wow.....its amazing how frosty is the only person in the world affected......:wtf:
(no offense to you frosty)

This actually affects everybody, whether you have an opinion or not.

[Khaos]

It technically affects everyone, but not much. BD movies and HDDVD movies are practically the same HD content. Does anybody do backups on DVDs and desparately needs a higher capacity?

I just don't see the reason everyone is getting their panties in a bundle over two very similar optical disc formats.

[Eidorian]

I back up to hard disk using a differential. It only takes about 1 minute now.

[Coded-Dude]

businesses will probably be looking to replace tape very soon, so it impacts me significantly.
Console games and HD movies are starting to be packaged on one disc, so size limitations are starting to become a reality.
PC install discs will benefit: Read and Write speeds will have an affect on how much data is now installed to HDD, or kept on the optical disc.

You may say they are so close, so why does it matter, but we are stating why.
HD DVD is cheaper, but BD has "mo-betta" features.

[Eidorian]

businesses will probably be looking to replace tape very soon, so it impacts me significantly.Right...

So Sony is going to use Blu-Ray to kill Sony's own tape sales?

[Coded-Dude]

Hard-coated BD-ROM's with 200GB of storage have much more long-term potential than today's 200GB tapes.
If you think tape is going to be THE critical production back-up solution forever, you are wrong IMHO.

Backup hardware will be smaller, sleeker, and have much less power consumption than that of current design.

Most of all, a comment like that would have pretty much killed the CD too.......but it didn't.
Why, because its a cheaper, more reliable solution.

It may not be HD DVD or even BD, it could be HVD(or something else) for all we know, but I bet Sony would be happier if it were BD. (A product they have the ability to further profit from) I do believe optical back-ups are going to be the solution of choice.....

[Garfunkel]

It technically affects everyone, but not much. BD movies and HDDVD movies are practically the same HD content. Does anybody do backups on DVDs and desparately needs a higher capacity?

I do...and so does frosty and probably coded dude and a few others reading this thread alone.

Right...

So Sony is going to use Blu-Ray to kill Sony's own tape sales?

Right...

So Sony is just going to sit there utilizing diminished profits from tape sales and let their competitors create superior mediums businesses wish to implement?