Studios: Digital Downloads Not Ready

[FantasyGhost]

Executives say it will be years before they replace DVDs.

Digital downloads via Broadband connections are years away from replacing Blu-ray high-def and standard-def DVDs.

That's the consensus of top Hollywood studio executives, as reported today by Video Business.

Apple, Microsoft, TiVo and NetFlix have all (or will soon) launched services that allow home viewers to download TV shows and movies from the Net to their TVs.

However, during a Content Delivery and Storage Association conference panel this month, four studio officials said downloads are no threat to physical media because they are too complicated and take too long to download.

For instance, some high-def movies can take hours to download before the viewer can begin to watch.

"I don’t think we have to be worried about the replacement of physical media for some time,” said Benn Carr, Disney's vice president of new technology, according to Video Business. “Downloading sales are not going to ‘hockey-stick’ soon. Every time I access a site and download, it’s not necessarily seamless.”

Sven Davidson, vice president of content development for Fox, was even more critical:

“Demand for downloading is very small and the satisfaction is smaller," he said. “The pipelines aren’t big enough.”http://www.tvpredictions.com/downloads031208.htm

[Coded-Dude]

duh

[speed stick]

Yeah not for a few years for files that are that large. Those HD movie files are huge and require so much space if you want to have a library without deleting content.

[Coded-Dude]

not for a LOOOOOOOOOOOOONG time.... Most of the world doesn't even have high speed bandwidth, so expect optical discs to be around for at least another decade. We may see viable solutions emerge, but they will not replace discs for a long time to come. Mark My Words!

[masteratt]

In memory of Phoenix's lame jokes:
Nah, if I mark your words, it'll ruin my monitor.


Anyway the guy quoted and Coded-Dude are absolutely right....I do wonder though why he bothered to put out a such an obvious statement.

Is there a threat to DVD/Blu-Ray sales (i know there are with the like of APple Tv/ tivo or whatever and this show they are worried about them?)
Maybe they are seeing more people are downloading and less are buying?

It's hard to imagine one day he just thought "you know, I think I'm going to reassure people that physical media rocks!"

[JasonXe]

I downloaded 3 xbl movies yesterday (was bored) that were 6.2-6.8gb. It allowed me to play at 1% which wasn't even a min. The problem is the storage size because I can only keep one file at time. Even though I had enough of the movie after watching it the first time, a bigger storage is needed for the 360. The current 120gb hhd is stupidly over price and don't intend to buy it unless i hit the lottery or pass go and collect 200 buxs.

[Garfunkel]

I downloaded 3 xbl movies yesterday (was bored) that were 6.2-6.8gb. It allowed me to play at 1% which wasn't even a min. The problem is the storage size because I can only keep one file at time. Even though I had enough of the movie after watching it the first time, a bigger storage is needed for the 360. The current 120gb hhd is stupidly over price and don't intend to buy it unless i hit the lottery or pass go and collect 200 buxs.

You are one customer, with a probably higher-then standard broadband pipe. You are downloading SD movies onto a highly specialized device. Most customers do not and will not thing about high-speed internet fro a few more years. The average consumer link is not much higher then 56Kbps at present, and this is in wealthy nations.

Now imagine trying to sell HD movies on a full mass-produced scale world wide.

IT is not going to happen for 7 years from now.

[Coded-Dude]

yep...like i said, it will not happen for at LEAST another decade.
Even then it will not be the main(and only) way of content distribution for several decades. Expect the optical format to do well for a VERY long time(unless of course another physical medium is found/adopted).

Current digital download is "spit in a bucket" when you compare it to people who buy content on a physical medium on a global scale.

[JasonXe]

actually those were hd 720p (compress) movies, not SD. SD (480p) are usually around a gig for movies in the marketplace. Also i live in a poor neighborhood and have regular cable that goes up to 15 mbp down / 2mbps up. For 14 buxs more I can get a boost service and get 30/4 which is high. Also i know im only one customer which is why i was stating in my previous post as my personal experience and not the view of the world. I also think dd is not going to take off for a long while. Physical media and bootleg poorly capture movies of Nacho Libre is still the way of the world. I would like to see how there going to get dvd 2.0 to work though to switch topics if thats ok.

[Garfunkel]

yep...like i said, it will not happen for at LEAST another decade.
Even then it will not be the main(and only) way of content distribution for several decades. Expect the optical format to do well for a VERY long time(unless of course another physical medium is found/adopted).

Current digital download is "spit in a bucket" when you compare it to people who buy content on a physical medium on a global scale.

My predictions:

4 Years time: greater services for DD largely fail due to lack of demand.
7 years: minimal success gained in very wealthy areas of Oceania, Eastern Europe, and the US. Slightly higher in asia.
9 years: limited penetration into mass market
11 years: market saturation occurs.

[Zer0-Sum]

And in other news the sky will be blue tomorrow, pie is rumored to be very tasty with Kool-Whip, fire is hot and gravity will be in effect for ever.

This is what I have been saving for a while now. Blu Ray is the way to be.

What will hold digtial downloads back? The ISP's and TelCo's. HD downloads suck up to much bandwidth and until they HATE that with a burning passion. So digital download fans can forget about it, for now at least.

[FantasyGhost]

While everyone is saying something else...

Key shift from disc to download will happen in next "12-18 months", predicts Lewis

The console war intensified this week, with senior Xbox exec boss Chris Lewis branding disc formats a thing of the past as Microsoft slashed the price of 360 in Europe – with the entry level model now half the price of Sony's Blu-ray supporting PlayStation 3.

With the entertainment format stand-off ostensibly ending last month - when Toshiba, creator of the Microsoft-backed HD DVD, pulled out of the market - analysts are predicting a significant boost to PlayStation 3 in its wake.

As speculation continues on whether Microsoft will now move to support Blu-ray as the industry standard, however, Europe boss Chris Lewis has re-emphasised the US giant's commitment to digital downloads, dismissing the significance of Sony's format victory.

"Going forwards, digital downloads is really where it's at," Lewis told GamesIndustry.biz. "More and more people's ongoing and ever-increasing downloading of music and movies is becoming the de facto. I think that's going to happen in very short order; people want to consume that way. Before very long we will look back wistfully at shiny discs as something that was somewhat a historic phenomenon in a way that we kind of think about vinyl or VCRs today."

While Microsoft's belief in the long term potential of downloadable content over physical storage media is well documented, Lewis claimed that, despite Blu-ray's victory, the shift away from discs will happen "sooner than any of us think".

"That's the future direction, and I think that's going to be the case in the next 12-18 months," he predicted. "I think we're going to be talking much more about that than anything else. Do I think that this Christmas will somehow be defined by DVD playback? I genuinely don't think that will be the case. I do not think that [the demise of HD DVD] will have any material impact on our console velocity. And I think other factors, specifically our architecture around downloads, is far more advantageous and important for the future."

He added: "We are best placed to offer that, we already offer that, our online pedigree is such that we will offer the best and most seamless experience."

Lewis's comments follow remarks made earlier this week by Xbox 360 product manager Aaron Greenberg, who said in repsonse to speculation: "Xbox is not currently in talks with Sony or the Blu-ray Association to integrate Blu-ray into the Xbox experience. We're the only console offering digital distribution of entertainment content."

Microsoft chief executive Steve Ballmer had previously suggested that the firm was considering supporting Blu-ray with its Windows platform.

Microsoft this week cut the price of all three of its 360 SKUs in Europe, with the Arcade pack now retailing for GBP 159 and Premium for GBP 199, with Elite at GBP 259. Xbox 360 currently offers downloadable HD movies for rental via its Video Marketplace Store.

Following Toshiba's withdrawal from the market last month, SCEA president Jack Tretton said: "The emergence of Blu-ray as the de facto high-def standard is one more reason why PS3 is a great value to consumers. The combination of strong sales, Blu-ray dominance and widely-anticipated games all point to 2008 as a breakthrough year for PS3."

The first part of the GamesIndustry.biz interview with Chris Lewis can be read here (http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=34072), with part two to follow next week.http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=34141

[Garfunkel]

Hahahaha, good luck you bastards.

[Coded-Dude]

....so they are going to stop printing/publishing games on dvd in the next 12-18 months?

Yeah Fuckin Right. (I wonder what kool-aid that guy drank)

[Kiwi]

So if that guy is right, why did they bother supporting HD-DVD?

What an idiot. ¬_¬

[Garfunkel]

So if that guy is right, why did they bother supporting HD-DVD?

What an idiot. ¬_¬

They never did. They wanted to delay BD winning.

And as you can see by the fine example, they have no idea whatsoever about how poorly suited our infrastructure is for DD.