Kaz Hirai: PlayStation 'will reclaim lead'

[masteratt]

Nothing too new but just showing you how Sony is handling mainstream media.

Video:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/7388202.stm

He has a very American accent, never noticed that lol :/

PlayStation 3 will help Sony reclaim its position as the leading games console maker, the head of the firm's console division has said. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/7387628.stm)

If you don't want to read all this, watch the vid lol
Speaking to BBC News, Kaz Hirai said the machine would overhaul rivals Nintendo and Microsoft within its 10-year lifecycle.

PlayStation 3 sales have outstripped those of Microsoft Xbox 360 in Europe but it lags behind in North America.

Nintendo's Wii console is the number one next-generation machine globally.

Mr Hirai said Sony was engaged in a "marathon" race with Nintendo and Microsoft.

More than 10.5 million PlayStation 3s were sold worldwide by the end of 2007. To date, in Europe more than five million PS3s have been sold.

Nintendo had shipped more than 25 million Wiis worldwide by April this year, while Microsoft reported 19 million 360s shipped by the same period.

Both firms have reported production supply problems in the past year.

Mr Hirai said: "We've only really begun to scratch the surface with PlayStation 3 but I am confident that given the long life-cycle we have planned for the machine we are going to have a very good install base in all of the major territories.

"I am very confident that after the 10-year lifecycle we will have the install base that we are looking for and that is obviously to be in the leadership position."


Mr Hirai said Sony continued to look into the future development of consoles beyond the PlayStation 3.

He said that while new PlayStation hardware had been introduced five years into the lifecycle of the last two generations of machines, it was difficult to predict when a new PlayStation platform would emerge.

"It's very difficult to say at this point in time.

"We need to take a look at advances in technology in various areas, such as semiconductors, graphics chips, output devices, mainly TV and monitors, to see where we would like to benchmark our next generation product."

He said that Sony's investment in future console hardware technology remained important.

"And you can make the investments, for example, to the tune of the investments we made with previous consoles, because we look at this business as a 10-year lifecycle. We don't let our consoles go by the wayside after five years.

Network gaming

"By managing a portfolio of consoles that we have - PlayStation 2, PlayStation Portable and PlayStation 3 - we are able to look at the business in totality."

Mr Hirai said the company had begun investigation of pure network gaming, without the need for a dedicated console.

"It's something we would look at. We have had a lot of discussion internally about where the road map will take us.

"[With network gaming] we're also dependent on the network infrastructure available in all the territories we do business in.

"Some have faster broadband access than others. When you consider that content that plays on PlayStation 3 can go as high as 50GB it's going to be very difficult to deliver 50GB to consumers in some parts of the world in a timely fashion."

Because of the limitations, he said Blu-ray discs remained the "best and most efficient way to deliver content".

He said sales of PlayStation 3 would continue to be driven by games and by the line-up of titles this year.

"If you look at line-up coming out this year - Metal Gear Solid 4, Resistance 2, Motorstorm: Pacific Rift , Little Big Planet, there is a whole raft of titles between now and the end of the year which will really help fuel growth of the install base."

Mr Hirai described the launch of PlayStation 3 as "difficult" and affected by "teething problems".

'Some challenges'

"We had some challenges when we launched the PlayStation 3 in major territories. We were not able to supply North America and Japan with enough units.

"There was also some concern in the media and from customers about the lack of titles available at launch."

He added: "That situation has been remedied to the satisfaction of consumers. The software line-up is looking good for this year and certainly for the holiday period."

He said the technology inside the PlayStation 3 had been a steep learning curve for developers.

"I think they are beginning to embrace the technology and are able to express their creativity on the platform certainly more than they were able to at launch."

I think PS3 is finally being 'accepted' now and as predicted, 2008 is not only a great time for games but a great time for PS3 in general as well especially how it's received.

[ddaryl]

Yes by the time all is said and done and in the year 2016 the PS3 will more then likely have outsold both the Wii and the Xbox 360...

[Viper]

Good luck with that.

Seems like Kaz inherited more than just a title from KK.

[Media]

I can see it reclaiming the lead in the 10-year cycle, definitely, but Nintendo will be done with this gen by then. I definitely see them overtaking MS, though.

[dnpmakkah]

It can go either way. Saying it can't happen is just as stupid as saying it will happen.

[Viper]

It can go either way. Saying it can't happen is just as stupid as saying it will happen.

Not exactly because logical projections based on trends and extrapolations suggest one scenario over the other. If one scenario is more plausible, then you can't say it's just as stupid as an implausible scenario.

Sony's 10 year plan was formulated prior to PS3/Wii launch and they assumed they come in, take names and kick some ass but it hasn't happened that way. They came in, said hi, stood in the corner for a while and have just recently got the balls to ask a chick to dance.

A 10 year plan requires massive 3rd party support and surging install base. 3rd party PS3 support isn't bad by any means but it's not PS/PS2 levels. Sales levels, while getting better, are no where near a pace that would float a console for 10 years.

I can see 6 maybe 7 years since I'm sure 3rd parties would like to amortize their exorbitant development costs a little but by then the hardcore will be itching for the newest tech and as powerful as the PS3 is, it WILL look dated in 6-7 years.

[dnpmakkah]

Anything can happen. Everyone looked at the specs of the Nintendo Revolution and laughed then they heard the name Wii and laughed louder. A year later and it is the hottest toy in years. Things change and you can never say never. Sony probably won't take the lead but it could happen, the chances of it happening are slim to none but it could. :)

[Viper]

Well, like I said, there are scenarios and PS3 coming back and pounding Wii for its lunch money is one of them...just an unlikely one.

I'll grant the gaming media let out a cumulative chuckle when Wii specs were suggested (they've never actually been revealed by Nintendo, IBM or ATi) but those that understood the disruption strategy predicted Nintendo would do very well this generation.

Just like now. Those that look only on the surface can see Wii fading after another year or two on the market yet those that comprehend the disruption strategy understand the Wii continue to dominate.

How many times have we heard Sony domination begins X week or with X game? Or that Wii is dead once X game is launched. (http://www.forbes.com/2008/05/02/wii-grand-theft-tech-personal-cx_bc_0502wii.html) Not only has it never hampered Wii sales but Wii outsold both the X360 and PS3 combined on the largest launch week of this entire generation. Those who understood the disruption, knew that was likely and understand that no single product for PS3 or X360 will divert Wii sales inertia because of the way it is position in the market space.

[dnpmakkah]

How many times have we heard Sony domination begins X week or with X game?Oh just you wait, it's coming alright. :pinky:

[Viper]

PS3 is gaining momentum but it's not been because of one game. I just wish a lot more PS3 fans understood that their most anticipated upcoming game isn't the same as everyone else BUT combines, that's a lot of anticipating which generates an actual significant "consistent" sales increase....not just a 2 week sales spike.

[Z]

unlike us, when Sony talks about Playstation, they mean everything ever branded as such. why neglect your PS2 beast? PSOne has ceased production, so it is understandable. though I never understood why they didn't simply license its production to Asian makers and let them have their fun. it could've stretch it's life a bit more.
He has a very American accent, never noticed that lol :/
even though he was born in japan, isn't he an American? I always thought he was.

[LaLiLuLeLo]

I'm too busy counting the days until MGS4 comes out to give a crap if PS3 takes the lead amongst the console wars honestly.

[Diresu]

PS3 having a 10 year life cycle doesn't mean PS4 won't be out. Sony is known for supporting their consoles long after the newer is out, I don't see whats so hard to believe about his statement.

[Viper]

even though he was born in japan, isn't he an American? I always thought he was.Born and grew up mostly in Japan but moved to America after college.

PS3 having a 10 year life cycle doesn't mean PS4 won't be out. Sony is known for supporting their consoles long after the newer is out, I don't see whats so hard to believe about his statement.They've actually hinted several times that they are talking about 10 years with no new console. If it were 10 years plus a new console after 5-7 years then there would be no debate. NES, SNES, GB, Genesis and some others were actually supported for 10 years or longer.

[Xclusion]

How many times have we heard Sony domination begins X week or with X game?

I don't think "X" game has launched yet so we'll just have to continue to wait. :moon:

[Diresu]

Born and grew up mostly in Japan but moved to America after college.

They've actually hinted several times that they are talking about 10 years with no new console. If it were 10 years plus a new console after 5-7 years then there would be no debate. NES, SNES, GB, Genesis and some others were actually supported for 10 years or longer.

Hinting isn't the same as coming out and saying it so I take any "hints" for what they are...If thats the case though, then I admit its unlikely, though not impossible. Especially if the costs keep going up, developing for ps3 will be cheaper then for the next xbox etc...who knows what can happen. Hardware obviously isn't a defining factor, wii is proof of that.

[CreativeWriter]

Well, like I said, there are scenarios and PS3 coming back and pounding Wii for its lunch money is one of them...just an unlikely one.

I'll grant the gaming media let out a cumulative chuckle when Wii specs were suggested (they've never actually been revealed by Nintendo, IBM or ATi) but those that understood the disruption strategy predicted Nintendo would do very well this generation.

Just like now. Those that look only on the surface can see Wii fading after another year or two on the market yet those that comprehend the disruption strategy understand the Wii continue to dominate.

How many times have we heard Sony domination begins X week or with X game? Or that Wii is dead once X game is launched. (http://www.forbes.com/2008/05/02/wii-grand-theft-tech-personal-cx_bc_0502wii.html) Not only has it never hampered Wii sales but Wii outsold both the X360 and PS3 combined on the largest launch week of this entire generation. Those who understood the disruption, knew that was likely and understand that no single product for PS3 or X360 will divert Wii sales inertia because of the way it is position in the market space.


I think it's time to start talking about the Wii as something other than an entertainment system. Everyone laughed when Nintendo suggested that Wii appealed to a different consumer group than the hardcore systems, but I think the data suggests that success for the Wii may not be zero-sum with success for the other platforms. Perhaps the Wii is directly competing with the other two for younger gamers, but it has seemed to appeal to new demographics, ones that tend to view the system as a social toy (see software attach rates) more than a "control your living room" entertainment device. I don't care if it's the Wii we reclassify or the other two systems, but direct comparisons seem inappropriate as the gameplay experiences continue to differentiate between the systems.

No one derides BMW for failing to keep up with Toyota's sales rates. They're both cars, but they cater to different markets. Now maybe Sony wants to be Toyota (and used to be), but being BMW carries its own advantages (Blu-ray victory, trojan horse into the living room...).

[Red_Eyes]

Born and grew up mostly in Japan but moved to America after college.

They've actually hinted several times that they are talking about 10 years with no new console.It's highly unlikely that Sony will do that. It will be more like right now: A new console in 5 years while retaining support for the old console for 10 years.

[LaLiLuLeLo]

A new console in, I'd say 6, ideally (for them) 7 years. They've extended the life span each console as much as they could with each iteration.

[LiquidEagle]

I'd like to see Sony be rewarded with the best sales, given that they have the best lineup and have offered the most even before this summer/fall.

I don't expect it to happen, so I won't be bothered -- most consumers are stupid anyways :laugh:

[Z]

I can't wait to see saes of MGS4. it'll really show us how strong the game and brand are. I am also very eager to see how it does in Japan. I don't think the game is strong there and I don't expect Monster Hunter system sale's spike, but we'll see how it will go exactly.

Born and grew up mostly in Japan but moved to America after college.
still, is he American? you can't get an accent unless you lived in a place around 12 years old. so he may have come and gone a few times. his accent is perfect. that tells me he has to be in the country for a long time. and that tells me he has a very good chance of being a citizen- especially seeing how high profile his job is. I don't care if someone is born in a country or if they just got citizenship at 5 pm yesterday; if you have it, you're one of them.

[Rockmond]

I'm too busy counting the days until MGS4 comes out to give a crap if PS3 takes the lead amongst the console wars honestly.

Yesh.

[Viper]

Hinting isn't the same as coming out and saying it so I take any "hints" for what they are...If thats the case though, then I admit its unlikely, though not impossible. Especially if the costs keep going up, developing for ps3 will be cheaper then for the next xbox etc...who knows what can happen. Hardware obviously isn't a defining factor, wii is proof of that.But you're logic works just as well on the other side of the coin. I'll explain.

A. Hinting of a solo 10 year life cycle.
B. Announcing a solo 10 year life cycle.
C. Hinting at new console in 5-6 years.
D. Announcing new console in 5-6 years

They've done far more of A than the others combined. While obviously it's not conclusive, it's the current direction they are suggesting.

ones that tend to view the system as a social toy (see software attach ratesIf you're referring to that old attach rate article, it's no longer valid. Wii has a higher attach rate than PS3.

* Xbox 360: software sales ratio: 7.5
* Wii: software sales ratio: 5.3 (Nintendo claims 6.07 but that includes Wii Sports)
* PS3: software sales ratio: 4.6

http://www.joystiq.com/2008/04/24/npds-latest-software-tie-ratios-for-consoles/


It's highly unlikely that Sony will do that. It will be more like right now: A new console in 5 years while retaining support for the old console for 10 years.

A new console in, I'd say 6, ideally (for them) 7 years. They've extended the life span each console as much as they could with each iteration.
I agree with you both, to be honest. As I mentioned many consoles have had 10 years of support before so it's not really outside of Sony only precedent. I think they may have planed on 10 years at first as a means to amortize the incredible development cost of PS3 and 3rd parties development costs of new game engines but have had an unfortunate turn of events and will push forward the development of PS4 earlier than planned.

still, is he American?
To my knowledge, yes. he's been living and working in the US for a very long time. I can't imagine him not having citizenship here.

[LiquidEagle]

I can't wait to see saes of MGS4. it'll really show us how strong the game and brand are. I am also very eager to see how it does in Japan. I don't think the game is strong there and I don't expect Monster Hunter system sale's spike, but we'll see how it will go exactly.


still, is he American? you can't get an accent unless you lived in a place around 12 years old. so he may have come and gone a few times. his accent is perfect. that tells me he has to be in the country for a long time. and that tells me he has a very good chance of being a citizen- especially seeing how high profile his job is. I don't care if someone is born in a country or if they just got citizenship at 5 pm yesterday; if you have it, you're one of them.

Yeah, I consider him to be American & Japanese, because his English is flawless, it doesn't have an accent at all (this is from an American's POV though :-p)

[cliffbo]

Good luck with that.

Seems like Kaz inherited more than just a title from KK.

why do you say that Viper? i've said myself that i think Sony are trying to stretch the release dates to 'actually' ten years with no overlap, so if i've spotted it, it must have been inherent in the many things i read to conclude this. of course the market can change, so it's not a certainty, but an aim. i've also said that the PS4 may not be a console at all. it could be a device that 'receives' games instead of running them (this is an outside be so early though) he's talking about taking the market in ten years. that means other companies are going to have to take note for reasons i have exhausted many times. this is part of the reason i speculated that MS could leave the console market... i'm sure you remember the conversation about diminishing returns on graphical investment

[Hisham]

I'd like to see Sony be rewarded with the best sales, given that they have the best lineup and have offered the most even before this summer/fall.

I don't expect it to happen, so I won't be bothered -- most consumers are stupid anyways :laugh:

Really, you know how much of an asshole this statement makes you seem?

I will say what I have said in other threads. Just because your system of choice isn't winning doesn't mean that it is because consumers are stupid.

You could say the PS2 selling so much was because consumers were stupid too, it works both ways. Stop being so close minded.

[Diresu]

^Having worked in Tech support for 3 years I can confirm that consumers are indeed stupid, with few exceptions >.>

[Jay Gee]

Really, you know how much of an asshole this statement makes you seem?

I will say what I have said in other threads. Just because your system of choice isn't winning doesn't mean that it is because consumers are stupid.

You could say the PS2 selling so much was because consumers were stupid too, it works both ways. Stop being so close minded.
They aren't stupid, but they are ignorant and easily swayed.

[Hisham]

^Having worked in Tech support for 3 years I can confirm that consumers are indeed stupid, with few exceptions >.>

My dad's friend works Tech Support too, and he said the majority of people who call are really not familar with computers. You can't say that the majority of people are not familar with computers because of this... No... Just like you can't say the majority of consumers are not well informed or stupid. Stop using that cop out excuse because the console of your choice isn't winning.

Now there may be consumers who buy on impulse or who only buy for the "cool" factor, but there are many other legitiment reasons to buy a 360 or a Wii over a PS3, and to say most consumers are stupid because that is what is happeing is just a stupid genralization.

[CreativeWriter]

If you're referring to that old attach rate article, it's no longer valid. Wii has a higher attach rate than PS3.

* Xbox 360: software sales ratio: 7.5
* Wii: software sales ratio: 5.3 (Nintendo claims 6.07 but that includes Wii Sports)
* PS3: software sales ratio: 4.6

http://www.joystiq.com/2008/04/24/npds-latest-software-tie-ratios-for-consoles/

Thanks, I wasn't up on the latest rates. I wonder if PS3's use as a blu-ray player skews its attach rate below the other two? Perhaps the relative expense of the system makes new buyers wary of picking up titles?

Still, the 360's attach rate is fantastic. Maybe it's a better marker to use for comparing "entertainment system" with "social play device" or whatever we want to label the Wii. What do you think of my argument in general, that the systems' successes aren't mutually exclusive, that they're catering to different audiences without detriment to each other?

[Diresu]

My dad's friend works Tech Support too, and he said the majority of people who call are really not familar with computers. You can't say that the majority of people are not familar with computers because of this... No... Just like you can't say the majority of consumers are not well informed or stupid. Stop using that cop out excuse because the console of your choice isn't winning.

Now there may be consumers who buy on impulse or who only buy for the "cool" factor, but there are many other legitiment reasons to buy a 360 or a Wii over a PS3, and to say most consumers are stupid because that is what is happeing is just a stupid genralization.

I think you are reading WAY to much into my comment...

[Viper]

Thanks, I wasn't up on the latest rates. I wonder if PS3's use as a blu-ray player skews its attach rate below the other two? Perhaps the relative expense of the system makes new buyers wary of picking up titles?

Still, the 360's attach rate is fantastic. Maybe it's a better marker to use for comparing "entertainment system" with "social play device" or whatever we want to label the Wii. What do you think of my argument in general, that the systems' successes aren't mutually exclusive, that they're catering to different audiences without detriment to each other?

That's actually been a notion I've propagated myself. I've posted many times back in early 2007 that the Wii and PS3 could both hit 100 million and not cannibalize each others sales. While still true to a large degree, there is some growing overlap and if Wii continues to sell at such a higher pace, the overlap will grow disproportionally on the Wii side.


The attach rate issue for PS3 is possible but then again the PS2 had a very high attach rate even early one despite the DVD aspect (granted it was largely in Japan where it sold specifically as a DVD unit). One thing to note regarding X360's higher attach rate. This is relevant to time on market. Even GC had an attach rate of 9.6. Both PS3 and Wii will continue to see a rise in attach rate as the years go on.

I made a chart once not long ago that broke down how many pieces of software each console owner buys per year. This allowed a more direct comparison between consoles since it nullifies the time on market advantage.


Console Attach rate Months on market Units per consumer per month

X360 7.5 29 0.25
PS3 4.6 18 0.25
Wii 6.1 18 0.33


(0.29 without Wii sports)

Basically Each PS3 and X360 owner buys a new game every 4 months while every Wii owner buys one every 3 months.

[Diresu]

That's actually been a notion I've propagated myself. I've posted many times back in early 2007 that the Wii and PS3 could both hit 100 million and not cannibalize each others sales. While still true to a large degree, there is some growing overlap and if Wii continues to sell at such a higher pace, the overlap will grow disproportionally on the Wii side.


The attach rate issue for PS3 is possible but then again the PS2 had a very high attach rate even early one despite the DVD aspect (granted it was largely in Japan where it sold specifically as a DVD unit). One thing to note regarding X360's higher attach rate. This is relevant to time on market. Even GC had an attach rate of 9.6. Both PS3 and Wii will continue to see a rise in attach rate as the years go on.

I made a chart once not long ago that broke down how many pieces of software each console owner buys per year. This allowed a more direct comparison between consoles since it nullifies the time on market advantage.


Console Attach rate Months on market Units per consumer per month

X360 7.5 29 0.25
PS3 4.6 18 0.25
Wii 6.1 18 0.33


(0.29 without Wii sports)

Basically Each PS3 and X360 owner buys a new game every 4 months while every Wii owner buys one every 3 months.

How old is that chart? I did a google search for some numbers and came up with this.

EDIT: Found something.

* Xbox 360: software sales ratio: 7.5
* Wii: software sales ratio: 5.3
* PS3: software sales ratio: 4.6

http://www.joystiq.com/2008/04/24/npds-latest-software-tie-ratios-for-consoles/

After reading the original article it does count Wii play and wii sports into that it seems..friggin having an edit nightmare right now. Im to tired to do this :P

[Viper]

No, it does not include Wii Sports because NPD does not tabulate Wii Sports. The 6.1 figure is straight from Nintendo.

[LaLiLuLeLo]

Ugh, this is just turning into another sales and debate thread. I'm farking closing it.