my views on how the industry will evolve

[cliffbo]

it may have upset some people, it may have caused some threads to be closed, but the fact is there is a growing number of people that are considering boycotting certain companies. its not a matter of its legitimacy but rather a matter of the effect this growing trend will have on the industry as a whole and ultimately, how it will effect we the gamer.

i myself have been watching a lot of comparative videos of late regarding the differences between the 360 and the PS3 as far as third party games are concerned. i have to say with all honesty that Wounding was right and i was wrong: there is so little difference between these games that i would advise anyone to go out and buy the cheaper 360 rather than a PS3... if they plan on mainly having third party titles in their collections.

however, if you are going to build your games collection up (as am I) based mainly on first party games, then you have to consider which company are planning on having the most choice and which company are more likely to innovate and push the envelope in games design. i of course are going to opt for Sony simply because i believe they will deliver on this.

i believe that Sony have decided upon a different tactic this generation, and instead of trying to garner more exclusives by paying money over, they have opted for the more direct approach of amalgamating their studios under one umbrella and sharing knowledge of Cell/RSX development across the board. this will lead to a more consistent and steady growth of sterling titles that really push the PS3 and utilise the extra space on the Blu-ray.

i think there is a huge difference between Sony's strategy (as far as first party is concerned) and Nintendo's... mainly the size and diversity of studios already under Sony's umbrella - and this list can only grow, as we have recently seen with Media Molecule. as more PS3 are sold the need for AAA titles will increase and the attraction for developing on the PS3 will increase also.

Thanks to VonGak: Sony's Powerhouse

first party devs will enjoy this carte blanch emergence from their fans, because it will leave the market wide open for their titles. if for instance a gamer is looking for a good first person shooter and Killzone does live up to the expectation, then the fact that there are no exclusives from third party devs will give first party devs a free market that will mean them selling more copies of their titles; which ultimately leads to more money to develop further titles... quality and diversity will be Sony's only mandate, giving the devs room to improve and innovate game wise. its the perfect scenario

although the petition to veto games by forum users was a little bit silly, it does indicate this growing trend that i have spoken about and it will filter through to third parties eventually, and i believe, have an effect on their future plans. Once Sony have demonstrated the true potential of the PS3 and it's undeniable, then the naysayers will have lost their best and largely legitimate weapon against Sony. at this point - in mid 2008 - third party devs will have to make a decision: support the both consoles with exclusives or risk losing more support from both camps.

of course we have to take into consideration the life span of certain consoles to really evaluate how long it will take third party devs to start really making an effort, because they will know that the 360 is likely to have a five year life cycle as opposed to a ten year life cycle on the PS3. the difference between each generation of machines is shrinking with each release and by the time the PS4 comes out, more and more people are likely to still buy fourth and fifth generation games (baring in mind that they will have achieved near photo realism by then) from the PS3 for the PS4, meaning, that ten year life cycle will be even more prevalent with the PS3.

this i believe to be Sony's main objective this gen

if its at all possible to approach this subject with grace and intelligence, please do so, because this to me is the most important topic (other than storage space) that this gen faces.

[jaxmkii]

i go where GT goes its that simple...for me

[woundingchaney]

Im going to keep an eye on this because it inherently has a good statement. Please lets not turn this into "xbot" "sonyboy" nonsense here or else it will be closed.

i believe that Sony have decided upon a different tactic this generation, and instead of trying to garner more exclusives by paying money over, they have opted for the more direct approach of amalgamating their studios under one umbrella and sharing knowledge of Cell/RSX development across the board. this will lead to a more consistent and steady growth of sterling titles that really push the PS3 and utilise the extra space on the Blu-ray.

I think Sony has chose to use the PS3 as a trojan horse for BR thats their primary different tactic as well as introducing the cell into a broader market (although one could say the same thing about the EE from last gen). The 3rd party titles concerning exclusivety really are beyond Sonys grasp right now until they can get a much larger install base, its quite possible that as the gen progresses Sony may pick up some of the once exclusive titles. Even then it would depend on their market penetration concerning the other consoles and how far Sony will go to "sweeten the pot".

first party devs will enjoy this carte blanch emergence from their fans, because it will leave the market wide open for their titles. if for instance a gamer is looking for a good first person shooter and Killzone does live up to the expectation, then the fact that there are no exclusives from third party devs will give first party devs a free market that will mean them selling more copies of their titles; which ultimately leads to more money to develop further titles... quality and diversity will be Sony's only mandate, giving the devs room to improve and innovate game wise. its the perfect scenario

Im not denying the abilities of Sonys fp studios but lets not count out third parties either after all many of the "must have" titles of last gen (and arguably this gen) have not been done by fp studios.

although the petition to veto games by forum users was a little bit silly, it does indicate this growing trend that i have spoken about and it will filter through to third parties eventually, and i believe, have an effect on their future plans. Once Sony have demonstrated the true potential of the PS3 and it's undeniable, then the naysayers will have lost their best and largely legitimate weapon against Sony. at this point - in mid 2008 - third party devs will have to make a decision: support the both consoles with exclusives or risk losing more support from both camps.

I seriously dont see this happening. Fans play games and when the dust settles they will play a good game on the 360 on the PS3 or on any damn console available. Sure we have some very strong feeling on MS or Sony but these people represent such a small portion of the consumer base that they virtually have no impact what so ever. As long as quality titles keep coming down the line it doesnt matter consumer absolutely will not stop purchasing them regardless of how many of these titles are multi-platform. Boycotting titles essentially hurts ones fan favorite, if Capcom cant sell titles on the PS3 then they dont make titles for the PS3, if Square cant sell titles on the Wii then they dont make titles for the Wii etc (think of the GC here).

[Delirious]

Im still going to stick with the Wii/xbox thing I have going now. I still see no need to switch to sony any time soon.

[TEEDA]

cliffbo> I totally agree with you. But I think The difference will not be only distinguishable by the games which will certainly have some gaps in the near future ( Yes , I do believe there will be ).

As we all know it's the consumer who decide the fate of the succes of a compagny. And in the video game industry it was seen that sometimes the consumer is buying something without knowing anything about what they are paying for.

For this generation I think it's not only the consumer who will decide, but the developpers too. And today I can see that they are not as frustrated as before and that for this generation they are acting more freely than they did for the last generation.
If we look at the exclusives strategies that they are doing with Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo. They don't even care about the fanbase of each plateform , and they are porting their good franchises to the most sold plateform which is appropriate, but in fact at the same time they are disolving there fans. And I do think that it could turn the gaming market into a terrible crisis.
From years now of gaming, I' ve seen good and bad franchises, and some video games compagny are really going down in terms of the quality of their titles, and others are growing up.

As for a gaming fact, Like you I think that graphically speaking we will not see a huge difference between the " multiplateform titles" but With the exclusive titles we will always see some gaps. Of course eveyone wants to have plenty of Good exclusive titles, But I personnaly prefer to have few exclusive and memorable titles and lots of average games.

We can also see some really innovative and new franchises from the first party devs ( especially Sony ).
And I do think that for the PS3 Sony is counting on their first party titles and their knowledge of its studios rather than on the first party developpers agreements for exclusive titles.
If they have sold 200 millions of PS1 and PS2. I' m sure they can do as good or better for the next years to come. They are really smart and they know how to appeal to their favorite consumers.

[cliffbo]

i think that the price difference between first party and third party games is also indicative of Sony's emergent philosophy. with the 'price' targeted posts and many sites citing this as Sony's main reason for lacklustre sales (i totally disagree with both of these evaluations by the way) more people will demand the best from their PS3. this is yet another reason why first party devs will HAVE to demonstrate the full potential and maybe even accelerate the need for third party to catch up.

[Nameless]

Cliff, I somewhat agree with your thoughts, but have a different perspective regarding 3rd party exclusives. We all know businesses are established to make profits bottom line! Every new console hardware leap developers & publishers have to deal with the reality that development & marketing cost may not be amortized unless the title has great success considering the install base. This concern is even greater considering the rising cost of game development for the "HD" era.

3rd party developers decided to "hedge their bet" by offering their titles all platforms and creating development tools focused on that goal. (Look at Capcom’s game engine for next-gen...)
Once we have a console with a 20 million install base (2009/2010) we may see the return of the 3rd party exclusive on a regular basis. Now another thought is the emergence of the digitally distributed game/online market place game. These titles are typically mini games, classics or smaller games in scope with much smaller budgets. We could see well known developers going this route with exclusives, because the development cost risk is mitigated. I doubt these types of games would appeal to the hardcore, but if the gameplay is good enough there's a chance... Now here's my concern for the PS3 leading up to 2009; if the 360 continues to have the much larger install base 3rd party will develop with the 360 as the "target" console & port the games to the PS3. This could result in three issues:

1) Games that are inferior in quality, because the games are not optimized for the cell/RSX. (Look at the batch of 3rd party launch titles…)
2) Timed exclusives, because it takes time to port the game to the PS3.
3) An identical port of the 360 version lacking any support for the Sixaxis or BD.

The only way these issues can really be avoided is by PS3 hardware sales; if the PS3 get's the install base to be the primary gaming sku the tides could turn. The concerns above will be gripes from the hardcore community, because honestly 3rd party titles will be adequate for the mass consumer IMO. (Ubisoft, Capcom & EA produce quality titles for the mass consumer…) Also, 3rd party developers have only begun to unlock the power of multicore processors & multi-threading programming so things can only get better...The only potential loss would be missed opportunity for gameplay advances with the Sixaxis controller not being the primary input target...

I think people are selling short the impact of network released games on the mass consumer once the next-gen consoles are in the “sweet spot” price range... ($150 - $199 USD) Also, Sony has made a great move creating a large network of developers focused on unlocking the power of multicore programming within the Cell. Developing for the PS3 has a huge learning curve if you really want to push the machine, and this small army Sony has assembled should be up to the task. I just hope this development support finds its way to the 3rd party development community. Plus, this network of Sony developers is the primary force responsible for showing the consumers that the PS3 is more powerful than the competing hardware to justify the price difference. Sony made a long term investment with this approach and I think it will pay off in the long term. (New IPs & quality titles!)

The next-gen will more than likely only have a few 3rd party exclusive titles, but the network released games & 1st/2nd party titles should be enough to differentiate the consoles & justify the PS3 purchase IMO.
3rd party titles will still sell well and provide great experiences, but this will be entertainment we can all share. It will be interesting to see how this 3rd party trend effects the next-gen...

[curryking1]

All interesting points brought up guys, cool stuff.

[OmniCloud]

Yeah good read fellas (great post Nameless ) I think motion control is the future of this industry. It's just an easier way to get more people to jump into a videogame.

I also think Little Big Planet/Home is Sony's killer app-even more important than Killzone or MGS4 IMO...

Overtime, I think Little BIg Planet will be one the most successful titles they have.

[curryking1]

My opinion on the killer app for the PS3 stuff is this. The games are right now of utmost importance to get the system in gamers hands. Once the userbase starts to increase, then Home & LBP will grow, and knowledge about it will grow, and become more popular and it's importance will increase exponentially and eclipse the importance of most games (assuming the PS3 becomes nicely popular).

Also, I agree with some that the multi titles are now less important to the PS3 system because you can get them elsewhere now, that's the singular reason for my thoughts on that. Every game is important to every system, and the 360 getting these titles was a big win for them, for the PS3 it was a bit of a loss because that makes the PS3 no longer the only place to get X game - no longer a reason to pick up a PS3, rather a reason to get 1 of more than 1 console.

And that multiplats are less important because they changed from exclusive to multiplats and can be picked up elsewhere, simply by that notion that increases the importance of all still exclusive first and third party games to the PS3 brand.

[<3frosty]

Lets be serious here for a second, and realize that while the hardware in the 360 isn't future proof, i see no reason why its lifespan cant last beyond 5 years. The idea behind your statement seems to stem from the fact that it doesnt use a truly next gen format to play its games, yet the games they currently have are expansive and gorgeous. So, if they have to put it on two discs, maybe three, i believe there will be no reason it wont sell. Look at Final Fantasy 7. It sold well, despite being on what? 3-4 discs? RE4 sold well, and it is on two discs.

The 360 will last as long as the other consoles. An 8-10 year life cycle is not out of the question at this point. Even with the DVD format limitations, i still dont see them coming out with a brand new console 5 years into its lifecycle. That is pretty ridiculous.

[cliffbo]

Nameless i think that both of our views sit neatly together and i agree whole heartedly with it. but Sony are attempting to educate third party devs about utilising CELL more officiantly. i believe Phil Harrison said that this would be made available to anymore who is interested:

Three first party technology teams within Sony -- the WWS Europe Advanced Technology Group, WWS America ICE team, and WWS America Tools and Technology group -- have combined to create PlayStation® Edge, a set of cutting edge technologies for imminent release to all PlayStation 3 developers. Rather than an overarching engine, these teams have chosen to create specialized systems that demonstrate best practices of SPU and RSX utilization. A unique tool for RSX performance analysis, extensively used in the tuning of first party titles, will also be presented.

[Nameless]

^^

[TEEDA]

We' ve seen new alliances of Developpers SquareEnix and NamcoBandai. and Sammy Spike I think Maybe we 'll see more who knows ? capcom Konami ? lol. Ubisoft EA ?
And don't forget the good feedback about the ease to developp for PS3 from some developpers point of view Like Ninja THeory, Factor 5, Capcom. etc
And of course exceptionnal games made by small dev teams like Media molecular ( Little Big planet ) and Flow.

[woundingchaney]

Originally Posted by <3frosty

The 360 will last as long as the other consoles. An 8-10 year life cycle is not out of the question at this point. Even with the DVD format limitations, i still dont see them coming out with a brand new console 5 years into its lifecycle. That is pretty ridiculous.

I definetely see another console within about 5 years (6 maybe but thats stretching it). Technology is an ever moving standard. What I dont expect MS to do is drop the 360 like a hot potato much like they did with the xbox (of course that was mainly due to bleeding money over several poor business agreements on the console).

So yes I could see the console staying on the market for 8 years or so but I cant see there not being a new generation console in around 5 years. Since MS launched in 2005 that would put them at Holiday 2010 or possibly Holiday 2011.

I personally dont see the xbox having any problem as far as "future proof"

[<3frosty]

Originally Posted by woundingchaney

I definetely see another console within about 5 years (6 maybe but thats stretching it). Technology is an ever moving standard. What I dont expect MS to do is drop the 360 like a hot potato much like they did with the xbox (of course that was mainly due to bleeding money over several poor business agreements on the console).

So yes I could see the console staying on the market for 8 years or so but I cant see there not being a new generation console in around 5 years. Since MS launched in 2005 that would put them at Holiday 2010 or possibly Holiday 2011.

I personally dont see the xbox having any problem as far as "future proof"

Why? Why do you expect them to come out with a brand new console in 5 years? I see no reason, especially if its the idea that the limitations of the DVD format will cause this.

[cliffbo]

Originally Posted by curryking1

My opinion on the killer app for the PS3 stuff is this. The games are right now of utmost importance to get the system in gamers hands. Once the userbase starts to increase, then Home & LBP will grow, and knowledge about it will grow, and become more popular and it's importance will increase exponentially and eclipse the importance of most games (assuming the PS3 becomes nicely popular).

this is something that always gets overlooked by both posters and the media in general. exposure to great IPs and Ideas always leads to a growth in interest, which inevitably leads to acceleration in hardware sales. the two titles that i see as important for this growth at the moment are LBP and HOME, which is why i decided mid 2008 for third party to sit up and think.

Originally Posted by OmniCloud

Yeah good read fellas (great post Nameless ) I think motion control is the future of this industry. It's just an easier way to get more people to jump into a videogame.

I also think Little Big Planet/Home is Sony's killer app-even more important than Killzone or MGS4 IMO...

Overtime, I think Little BIg Planet will be one the most successful titles they have.

i too believe that HOME and LBP will be more important for Sony in the long run... they are after all part of the 3.0 philosophy that Sony are keen on implementing in future projects. i see Killzone and MGS as system sellers, were as i see HOME and LBP as inspiring an active partnership between the consumer and Sony. good points.

Originally Posted by <3frosty

Lets be serious here for a second, and realize that while the hardware in the 360 isn't future proof, i see no reason why its lifespan cant last beyond 5 years. The idea behind your statement seems to stem from the fact that it doesnt use a truly next gen format to play its games, yet the games they currently have are expansive and gorgeous. So, if they have to put it on two discs, maybe three, i believe there will be no reason it wont sell. Look at Final Fantasy 7. It sold well, despite being on what? 3-4 discs? RE4 sold well, and it is on two discs.

The 360 will last as long as the other consoles. An 8-10 year life cycle is not out of the question at this point. Even with the DVD format limitations, i still dont see them coming out with a brand new console 5 years into its lifecycle. That is pretty ridiculous.

i did not in anyway intend to downplay the 360, but if i did i apologise. its just the way i see things going in the future based on the 10 years that PS1/PS2 had and the fact that Sony have gone on record, saying as much. i can only go on the original XBOX to decide on MSs strategy so perhaps you are right and the 360 may enjoy a longer life span, although with the news of the Zephyre could be construed as another release (i don't see it this way but some will)

[cliffbo]

Originally Posted by Nameless

^^

er... ye... LOL

[woundingchaney]

Originally Posted by <3frosty

Why? Why do you expect them to come out with a brand new console in 5 years? I see no reason, especially if its the idea that the limitations of the DVD format will cause this.

The industry is steadily moving forward, technology in five years is going to be leaps and bounds better than anything we are playing today (well most likely). The industry needs to renew itself in order to not become stale or the consumer become bored. Competition will push both MS and Sony towards their new console. As far as 5 years thats the "general" time span between console generations and what is typically considered the sweet spot.

Its not so much any one aspect of any console as it is technology as a whole.

[cliffbo]

Originally Posted by woundingchaney

The industry is steadily moving forward, technology in five years is going to be leaps and bounds better than anything we are playing today (well most likely). The industry needs to renew itself in order to not become stale or the consumer become bored. Competition will push both MS and Sony towards their new console. As far as 5 years thats the "general" time span between console generations and what is typically considered the sweet spot.

i largely agree with this wounding but with one caveat: as each generation of consoles came out the graphics/physics/AI improved dramatically. each step from this point onward will be ever smaller than the one before it and so comparisons will become less important. Hence (1st party being important this gen ). if the 360 and the PS3 can reach almost photo realism by the end of their life cycle, the differences with the next gen 360 and the next gen PS3 will be more in physics and AI and less on graphics. so baring that in mind we may see more and more people holding onto the older machine and more and more people playin the older games on the next machine. so their could also be an even smaller take up of newer consoles. now if both companies have considered this then they may release a console a lot later than sooner